1. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Assessing Transition of Security Operations in Afghanistan Status Report 18 March 2010 1

2. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Agenda Problem Statement Methodology System Design Update Values and Metrics Update Preliminary Results Friction Points Earned Value Management 2

3. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Problem Statement The goal of the research is to develop a value model that assesses the transition of security lead from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and US Forces Afghanistan (USFOR-A) to the Afghani government and Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) Deputy Director, Force Integration and Training (CJ7) / CSTC-A defined five lines of operation (LOOs) that support the goal of transferring security operations – Accelerate ANSF growth – Achieve security for the Afghan population – Marginalize malign actors – Achieve legitimate, responsive, and accountable governance – Facilitate community development Develop metrics and an accompanying decision support tool to measure progress against the five LOOs Stakeholders – Force Integration and Training cell of NTM-A/CSTC-A (sponsor) – NTM-A/CSTC-A – Coalition military leadership – U.S. government leadership 3

4. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Methodology Project group organized into two subgroups Values and Metrics – Research values and metrics “Requirements” to win a counter-insurgency conflict Assessments of ANSF, security, Afghani government, and community – Develop value model with sponsor System Design – Development of user interface, input forms, storage, usable output – Integrate values, metrics, and value model from other team into the system 4

5. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Technical Approach – System Design System Input: the quantitative portion of the value model in a standardized survey format, completed by military units System Processing and Storage: completed survey templates are configuration controlled and ingested into data storage. User querying capabilities allow the retrieval of data (by unit and/or AOR and/or date range) to research trends Analysis Output: Condensed and easily understood presentation for decision makers 55

6. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Concept of Operation Surveys from 5 main military regions CJ7 processes surveys and requests status report CJ7 Processes Surveys Requests Status Report Military Regions 6

7. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY System Design Update Past Weeks Progress – Input Form Prototype – Data Compiler Prototype – Query Prototype – Output Prototype Way Ahead – Obtain weights for Value Model metrics – Refine interface and status report requirements – Expand Compiler Capacity 7

8. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Operational Scenario 8

9. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Technical Approach – Value Model Qualitative Value Model: the identification of an objective hierarchy relating fundamental and means objectives Quantitative Value Model: the articulation of the decision maker’s preferences towards the attributes, and the means of measuring each attribute V(x) = ∑ w i v i (x i )where w i = weight of attribute i v i = value of attribute i at score x i 99

10. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Values and Metrics Update Near Term – Completing value/metric hierarchy without sponsor input – Completing weight elicitation without sponsor input – Completing input forms Mid Term – Provide completed hierarchy with weights and input form to system team 10

11. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Weights - Theory (1 of 2) Weights represent the relative importance of each parameter vis-à-vis other parameters at the same node – must sum to one at each level under each node Bottom Row weights represent lowest level parameter’s importance to overall decision; used for final check with DM – Product of the weights on the branch of the tree – Also must sum to one 11 Performance Sports Car AccelerationTop SpeedBrakingHandling Comfort.7.3.1.3.25.35 Head Room Leg Room Shoulder Room.4.35.25.07.245 (.7)x(.1)(.7)x(.35)(.7)x(.25)(.7)x(.3).175.21 (.3)x(.4) (.3)x(.35) (.3)x(.25).12.105.075 Bottom Row Weights

12. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Weights - Theory (2 of 2) First, define Range of Variation (ROV) as the actual range of possible values (from worst to best) for a parameter – For example, in our sports car example suppose that, for the cars we are examining, the car with the slowest top speed was 140 mph and car with the highest top speed was 190 mph, with all other cars in between: ROV: 140 – 190 mph Several methods to elicit weights – Direct weights: simply ask DM to provide – Swing weights: “… thought experiment in which DM compares individual attributes directly by imagining (typically) hypothetical outcomes.” Robert T. Clemen & Terence Reilly – SMARTER: requires only that DM rank order attributes 1 - n – Rank Reciprocal: requires only that DM rank order attributes 1 - n – Rank Sum: requires only that DM rank order attributes 1 - n 12

13. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Swing Weights – Example (1 of 2) Assume you have a node with 3 parameters, each with the indicated ROV – Annual Income; ROV: $18K - $40K, where higher is better – Income Tax Rate; ROV: 1.3% - 8.5%, where lower is better – Population; ROV: 250,000 – 500,000, where higher is better Step 1; Select the one attribute you most want to shift from worst to best – Suppose you most prefer to move income from $18K to $40K Step 2; Select the second most desired attribute to change, from worst to best. How important is this to you compared to your first choice ? – Suppose you would prefer to move the tax rate from 8.5% to 1.3%, but only half as important as shifting annual income Repeat step 2 for all remaining parameters – In our example income is ten times more important than population

14. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Swing Weights – Example (2 of 2) Summary of DM’s feedback on previous slide with K-weight concept: – Most important attribute to improve is income: K income = 1 – Second most important attribute to improve: Tax Rate Half as important as income therefore K tax =.5 K income – Third most important attribute to improve: Population One-tenth as important as income therefore K population =.1 K income Convert to scaled weights that will be inserted the appropriate node of the value model: K income = 1= 1 / 1.6 =.625 weight income K tax =.5 K income =.5 / 1.6 =.3125 weight tax K population =.1 K income =.1 / 1.6 =.0625 weight population 14 Column Sums to 1.6

15. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Preliminary Results Functioning test system using input forms 15

16. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Functioning test system using queries Preliminary Results 16

17. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Functioning test system creating an output from queries Preliminary Results 17

18. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Friction Points Distance and interaction of sponsor – No face-to-face meetings possible – Flow of information is sporadic – Use local point of contact for weight elicitation and fabricate unavailable data 18

19. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Earned Value Management 19

20. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Cost Index 20

21. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Questions? 21

22. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY BACKUP SLIDES 22

23. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Work Breakdown Schedule 23

24. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY External System Diagrams 24

25. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY System Analysis Diagram 25

26. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Functional Architecture 26

27. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Functional Decomposition 27

28. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (1 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Force Size Training Capability Number of Units Fielded Average Assigned Strength Availability of Equipment Weapons Communication Equipment Vehicles Unit Facilities Training and Leadership Unit Rating Leader to Soldier Ratio Advanced Training Staff Training ETT Availability Confidence Assigned to NATO Partner Present for DutyWin/Lose Ratio Kill Rates Engagements Access to Combat Multipliers Access to MEDEVAC Access to Fire Support Access to Intelligence Access to Supplies Ministry and HQ Capability Force Management Acquisition Operations Training Plan and Goals Force Sustainment Force Development Resource Management Security for Afghan People Marginalize Malign Actors Accountable Governance Community Development 28

29. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (2 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Security for Afghan People Economic Indicators Price of Exotic Foods New Business Formations New Construction Capital Flight Kinetic Indicators % of Security Forces Affected by Insurgency ISAF+ANSF KIA Voluntary Reporting Afghan-on- Afghan Violence Assassination and Kidnapping Rate Wound/Capture vs. Kill Rate Marginalize Malign Actors Accountable Governance Community Development 29

30. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (3 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Security for Afghan People Marginalize Malign Actors # Districts w/ Functioning Governance Officials Sleep in District Detainee Guilt Ratio Captured Insurgent Health Religious Leaders’ Attitude Media Access to Internet #Shadow Governments Accountable Governance Community Development 30

31. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (4 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Security for Afghan People Marginalize Malign Actors Accountable Governance # New Court Cases Participation in Government Activities Anti- Government Protests #Officials Purchasing Position Budget Execution Formation of Anti-Insurgent Lashkar # CIVCAS by ANSF Community Development 31

32. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Value Structure (5 of 5) Transition Assessment Accelerate Growth of ANSF Security for Afghan People Marginalize Malign Actors Accountable Governance Community Development # Afghan Projects Electricity Available Community Opinion Medical Care 32

33. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (1 of 7) 33

34. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (2 of 7) 34

35. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (3 of 7) 35

36. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (4 of 7) 36

37. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (5 of 7) 37

38. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (6 of 7) 38

39. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Metrics and Range of Variation (7 of 7) 39

40. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Definition: “The possible variation of the scores of a value measure” -Gregory S. Parnell Important precursor to determining DM value (or utility) function Range of Variation (ROV) aka “Range of a value measure” *OR681, GMU 40

41. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Weights and Utility Curves (3 of 3) Elicit utility through lottery or certainty equivalence Weights and utility can be linear, piecewise, exponential, or an S-curve 41 *OR681, GMU

42. UNCLASSIFIED – FOR INSTRUCTIONAL USE ONLY Visit Our Project Website 42 http://mason.gmu.edu/~dugarte/index.html