1. Economic Trends and Forecast Data compiled, analyzed and presented by: Ryan Demien Tyler Jensen Sally Smith Presented 26 April 2006 Sustainable Air Quality Washington University Professor R. Husar

2. Economy Trend Data & Relevance to Sulfur Emissions Sulfur emissions are harmful to humans, animals and the environment By analyzing economy sectors and their trends sulfur emissions may be reduced The economy may be broken up into three main sectors relating to sulfur emissions: 1.Residential / Commercial 2.Industrial 3.Transportation Each of the above sectors may be described by sub-sectors More information can be found on the website of the Bureau of Economic Analysis or, specifically, in the tables for National Income Without Capital Consumption Adjustment by Industry.Bureau of Economic AnalysisNational Income Without Capital Consumption Adjustment by Industry

3. Data Sources The economic data for each individual sector allows for the calculation of energy and pollution efficiencies per sector. The three subsectors are adjusted to account for inflation. Spending within relative sectors provides an indicator of: 1. Amounts of energy being consumed 2. Where emissions originate

4. Residential / Commercial Subsector Res / Com sectors are combined as they share many subsectors that make their connection to the economy and sulfur emissions similar. This sector includes: 1.Public Utilities 2.Wholesale Trade 3.Retail trade and automobile services 4.Finance, insurance and real estate 5.Government 6.Services

5. Industrial Subsector This sector includes: 1.Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 2.Mining 3.Contract construction 4.Manufacturing (including durable goods and nondurable goods) 5.Public utilities (including electric, gas and sanitary services) 6.Government This sector involves the production of goods or services summarized under subsectors within private sectors.

6. Transportation Subsector This sector includes: 1.Means for transportation such as airports and runways, pipelines, railways, waterways, port, terminals 2.Vehicles such as cars, motorcycles and buses 3.Government 4.Services The transportation sector involves the movement of physical information, people and products.

7. Trend Data A brief overview of the distribution within various economic sectors is represented by the following charts. Each gives a specific representation of economic data collected from 1929 - 2004.

8. National Income by Sector

9. Relative Income by Sector

10. National Income per Capita by Sector

11. Res / Com Income by Sector

12. Industrial per Capita Income

13. Transportation Income by Sector

14. Economy Trend Data Analysis The following graphs depict trend analysis performed for 2005 - 2050 based off of economic data provided by the BEA for 1929 - 2004. Multiple forecasts were made using a number of different methodologies which will be explained with each graph.

15. National Income by Sector

16. Res / Com per Capita Income

17. Wholesale Trade

18. Retail Trade

19. Finance, Insurance and Real Estate

20. Services

21. Communications

22. Government (RC)

23. Industrial per Capita Income

24. Mining

25. Construction

26. Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

27. Manufacturing

28. Electric, Gas and Sanitary Services

29. Government (IN)

30. Transportation per Capita Income

31. Transportation

32. Government (TR)

33. Future Work Extend analysis – look into projection techniques Elaborate on BEA data –used per capita approach, but perhaps there are other approaches Causalities – look into why the data resulted the way it did Further understand sulfur emissions and its connection to the economy and its connection to energy and emissions

34. Thank you! Questions or comments? Contact information: Ryan Demien | rpd2@cec.wustl.edurpd2@cec.wustl.edu Tyler Jensen | tjj1@cec.wustl.edutjj1@cec.wustl.edu Sally Smith | sas2@cec.wustl.edusas2@cec.wustl.edu