1. Productivity in agriculture Christine Holleran Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Agricultural Statistics and Analysis Team

2. Productivity in agriculture Key component of competitiveness; how well an industry turns inputs into outputs. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shows the volume of output leaving the industry per unit of all inputs. TFP = (Total output at market prices) / (Total inputs+entrepreneurial labour)

3. Productivity in UK agriculture - trend

4. Research project on productivity in agriculture Efficiency and Productivity at the Farm Level in England and Wales 1982 to 2002 (David Hadley) Productivity and International Competitiveness in European Union and United States Agriculture (Eldon Ball, Jean-Pierre Butault and Carlos San Juan Mesonada) http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports/pr oductivity%20research/default.asp

5. Efficiency and Productivity at the Farm Level in England and Wales 1982 to 2002 Farm level data for England and Wales. Productivity growth results from technical change and change in efficiency. Relative technical efficiency. For eight different farm types; cereal, dairy, sheep, beef, poultry, pig, general cropping and mixed farms. Most farm types close to efficient frontier.

6. The frontier production function X Y 0 X1X1 Y1Y1 Y2Y2

7. Results Majority of farms close to the efficient frontier. Frontier of efficiency is being pushed out by technical change. Returns to scale close to one implying that the average farm for each type is close to optimal scale.

8. Technical change and returns to scale Technical change (%) Returns to scale Cereals5.80.909 Dairy2.01.068 Sheep2.00.972 Beef3.31.011 Poultry1.60.977 Pigs3.51.006 Gen Cropping4.20.977 Mixed5.21.073

9. Mean efficiency Cereals0.765 Dairy0.899 Sheep0.776 Beef0.815 Poultry0.905 Pigs0.887 Gen Cropping0.785 Mixed0.745

10. Efficiency change Cereals 0.00% Dairy- 0.43% Sheep- 0.76% Beef- 0.24% Poultry 0.00% Pigs- 0.48% Gen Cropping- 0.95% Mixed- 0.95%

11. Factors effecting efficiency farm debt farmer age levels of specialisation ownership status proportion of gross margin derived from subsidies

12. Caveat Whilst these results seem reasonably robust…

13. Conclusions technical change is pushing the frontier outwards for all farm types but, average levels of efficiency are declining generally, the average farms represented in these samples are close to optimal scale scale of operation is the most obvious difference between efficient and less efficient farms

14. Productivity and International Competitiveness in European Union and United States Agriculture Productivity is important to international competitiveness International comparisons of TFP for 11 EU countries and the USA Measure of international competitiveness

15. International Comparisons of productivity

16. International Competitiveness Total Factor Productivity Relative prices of outputs Exchange rates

17. International Competitiveness Purchasing power parities (PPP) Relative prices of output Units of national currency required to purchase the same amount of output as purchased by one dollar Divide by the exchange rate PPP in terms of relative prices in dollars International Competitiveness

18. Results relevant to UK 1973 - UK price 95% of the US price implying a competitive advantage relative to the United States in 1973 European inflation in the 1970s led to a peak in US competitiveness by 1980 Temporary European advantage by 1984 UK least competitive country in the sample by 2002, with prices 40% higher than the US

19. Input prices higher intermediate input prices are one reason for the high EU output PPPs. Capital inputs were more expensive in the EU countries than in the US European agricultural wage averaged only 50% of the US level

20. To summarise … international competitiveness depends on the price of output, which is a function of the domestic output price and the exchange rate. The domestic output price will depend on input prices and TFP

21. Possible further research Identify the characteristics of UK farms at the efficient frontier Assess the regional variation in farm level productivity Determine the extent to which UK farms move to, remain at, or drop back from, the frontier Consider the future productivity response of UK farms that would follow further CAP reform

22. Possible further research Assessment of the environmental and animal health and welfare performance of farms at the efficient frontier Widen the farm level analysis of productivity to cover other EU Member States Use data published on farm level accounts from countries exporting in a free-trade environment

23. Productivity in agriculture http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports/p http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports/p http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports/pr oductivity%20research/default.asprhttp://s tatistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports/producti vity%20research/default.aspoductivity%20 research/default.asprhttp://s tatistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/reports/producti vity%20research/default.aspoductivity%20 research/default.asp