1. Mass Media & Public Opinion
8.2 Measuring Public Opinion

2. Focus Your Thoughts . . .
In the election of 1948, Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas Dewey, yet pollsters were so confident Dewey would win that newspapers had already begun printing the headline ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ for the morning paper . . .
How might we account for this?
What are some of the short-comings of public opinion polls?

3. Measuring Public Opinion
If public policy is to reflect public opinion, one needs to be able to find the answers to these questions:
What are people’s opinions on “x” issue?
How many people share this opinion?
How firmly do they hold that view?
In other words, we have to be able to measure public opinion.

4. Methods of Measurement
Elections
Interest Groups
The Media
Personal Contacts
Polls

5. Elections
Votes cast for the various candidates are regularly taken as evidence of the people’s approval or rejection of the stands taken by those candidates and their parties however . . .
This isn’t actually the case – individuals vote for candidates for a variety of reasons (some being better than others)
Example - voting for Barack Obama because he is ‘fine’? Problematic, Sydney. ;)

6. Interest Groups
Interest Groups – Private organizations whose members share certain views and objectives and work to shape public policy.
Interest groups are a chief means by which public opinion is made known, they present their views (exert their pressures) through:
Lobbyists
Letters
Telephone calls
Political campaigns
Demonstrations
However it’s difficult to discern whether the existence of an interest group necessarily implies that there is a great deal of support for it.

7. The Media
The media is frequently described as a “mirror” of public opinion, however . . .
It’s probably more accurately described as a molder of public opinion and is often found to be very biased and inaccurate.
What does it mean to be ‘biased’?

8. Can politicians truly find the “voice of the people?”
Personal Contacts
Most politicians have frequent and wide-ranging contacts; through these contacts, they try to gauge public opinion
Politicians receive hundreds of calls, s, and letters every day and many make frequent trips “back home” but . . .
Can politicians truly find the “voice of the people?”
Many do not instead, they find the voice of only those who they want to find – those who support them and agree with their opinions.

9. So how is public opinion best measured??

10. What’s an ‘assumption’?
Polls
Polls – Devices that attempt to collect information by asking people questions.
Straw Votes – Polls that seek to read the public’s mind simply by asking the same question of a large number of people
Highly unreliable
Rests on the false assumption that a relatively large number of people will be representative of a broad range or a reasonable spectrum of the public opinion
What’s an ‘assumption’?

11. Scientific Polling Scientific polling did not begin until the 1930’s
Extremely complex five-step process
Defining the universe
Constructing a sample
Preparing valid questions
Interviewing
Analyzing and reporting findings

12. Defining the Universe & Constructing a Sample
Universe – A term which refers to the whole population that the poll aims to measure
Constructing a Sample
In most cases, it is not possible to interview a complete universe because it is too large (i.e., every person of voting age in America)
Because of this we must construct a sample, a representative slice of the total universe.
Samples must be random, that is, each member of the universe must have a mathematically equal chance of being selected; most samples
The Law of Probability
If you flip a coin 1,000 times, you’ll get ‘heads’ 500 times
No matter how often you perform this test, the results will be the same
So If the sample is of sufficient size (approx. 1,500 people) and is properly selected at random, the results can be generalized and will be accurate to within a small and predictable margin of error (+ or – 3%)
What does it mean to ‘generalize’ findings?

13. Valid Questioning Wording can affect the reliability of any poll
Questions should be ambiguous and not leading
Questions should be free of ‘loaded’ or emotionally charged words
Example
Leading Question –
“Should local taxes be reduced?”
Better Question –
“Should the city’s police force be increased to fight the rising tide of crime in our community?

14. Interviews Interviews can be conducted in two ways:
Door-to-door, face-to-face
Over the phone/internet
An interviewers tone of voice or any emphasis he or she may place on a particular word or question can influence a person’s response
If questions are not carefully worded, responses could come in the form of snap judgments
In addition, if the person being polled thinks that the person polling them is looking or ‘fishing’ for a particular response, that is likely the response they will give whether it’s truly how they feel or not!

15. Evaluating Polls
Major national polls are fairly reliable, but they are far from perfect and their force is tempered by a number of factors, for example, interest groups
One weakness of polls is that they are sometime said to shape the opinions they are trying to measure
They often create a ‘bandwagon’ effect
Some voters, wanting to side with the winner, will jump on the bandwagon of the candidate who is ahead in the polls
Polls also have difficult measuring:
Intensity – strength of feeling with which an opinion is held
Stability – relative permanence of an opinion
Relevance – how important a particular opinion is to a person who holds it

16. Assignment: Section 2 Assessment (Pg. 221)
Why are interest groups uncertain gauges for measuring public opinion?
What is the major problem with the straw vote polling technique?
How is that a random sample gives a fairly accurate representation of public opinion?
For what reasons is public opinion measured?
List two good reasons for following polls during a presidential campaign.
How might the Framers of the Constitution have viewed public opinion polls?
What positive and/or negative effects might there be if polls were taken among student voters before a student government election?

17. Activity: Conducting a Poll
The class will be divided into five groups
Group 1: Opinions on Cornell note-taking
Group 2: Opinions on longer school days in exchange for three-day weekends
Group 3: Opinions on legalizing gay marriage
Group 4: Opinions on the universal healthcare initiative
Group 5: Opinions on lowering the drinking age
Decide on a sample size and composition (a way to make the assignment random) while remaining representative of our ‘universe’ (our classroom)
Phrase three ambiguous questions to determine the opinions of the opposite group on your topic
Conduct your poll and tabulate the results
Present your findings to the class
Does our ‘universe’ like Cornell note-taking? Do we prefer some other method?
Does our ‘universe’ support the establishment of a three-day weekend? Are we willing to accept longer school days in exchange for this?
Does our ‘universe’ support or oppose gay marriage? Universal healthcare? A lower drinking age?