1. The Evolution of a CDR: Proposed Systematic Program Jeffrey L. Privette, NOAA On behalf of The Joint Agency Study on the Climate Impacts of the Nunn-McCurdy NPOESS Certification

2. 2 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS CDR Status Quo  NASA, NOAA, USGS and other organizations have developed some CDRs as ad hoc research products (e.g., SST, Ozone, earth radiation budget)  Current investments (Approx. # of grants) –NASA: ROSES’06 (A.15; Starting Fall 2007): 20 –NOAA: CCDD (Stratified starts since 2004): 4 –NOAA: SDS (Started Summer 2007): 7 –Other activities indirectly supported through mission and Research & Application Program investments

3. 3 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Future CDR Support Outlook  NASA, NOAA and USGS are studying the potential of NRC Decadal Survey missions to provide and/or advance CDRs –Post-mission funding of EOS-based products not clear  CDR production, refinement, reprocessing is not in any operational agency budget  CDR storage (CLASS) and distribution (Data Centers) is not in NOAA budget

4. 4 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Joint-Agency CDR Program Goals  Incorporate NRC input  Devise and cost an end-to-end program –CDRs and Climate Information Records (CIRs) –Systematic and Coherent –Comprehensive (GCOS, IPCC, NRC, CCSP, etc.) –Sustainable –Stakeholder and Science Need-driven  Build on current investments and expertise –Interagency and International  Need systematic program for evolving CDRs

5. 5 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Planning Development Path

6. 6 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Program Architecture  CDRs develop through overlapping Research (RM) and Operational Missions (OM) –Joint agency cooperation on all science & applications of each mission  Research-to-Operations occurs as function of CDR maturity –Developed 6-Level Maturity Matrix to define path –Not all sensor products will become Level 6 CDRs –Research programs continue developing algorithm alternatives and advancements to challenge “released” Level 6 CDRs  3 community groups coordinate and manage CDR evolution –Working Group: Science team plans and executes development of CDR (1 per CDR subset) –CDR Science Advisory Board: Senior climate scientists review and prioritize CDR planning and development –Steering Committee: Government senior scientists and managers coordinate budgetary matters and research-to-operations transitions

7. 7 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Core Activities in CDR Evolution  Sensor calibration and characterization  Algorithm development and refinement –Continuing incubation of algorithm alternatives that may eventual replace previous “standard”  Product (Re-)Processing –Research & Operational agencies co-generate Maturity Level 3-4 products as part of transition –Assures transition readiness  Product validation and use-driven evaluation  Archive, Distribution, Documentation

8. 8 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Notional Evolution of a CDR

9. 9 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Research and Operational Mission Cost Profiles Launch Peaks reflect higher intensity periods associated with a new product version, typically leading to a step-up in maturity level.

10. 10 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Cost Estimation Approach 1.Notional CDR lifecycle provides schedule and activity breakdown –NASA historical cost data estimates cost/activity –Separate Research and Operational cost profiles 2.Algorithm maturity* determines relative year in notional CDR lifecycle 3.Production complexity* determines multiplier of notional cost profile 4.CDR “ramp-up” rate treated as independent variable –Required CDR prioritization strawman *Maturity and complexity estimates from joint agency sensor expert teams (names provided in April Panel brief)

11. MaturitySensor Use Algorithm stability Metadata & QA DocumentationValidation Public Release Science & Applications 1Research Mission Significant changes likely IncompleteDraft ATBDMinimal Limited data availability to develop familiarity Little or none 2Research Mission Some changes expected Research grade (extensive) ATBD Version 1+ Uncertainty estimated for select locations/times Data available but of unknown accuracy; caveats required for use. Limited or ongoing 3Research Missions Minimal changes expected Research grade (extensive); Meets international standards Public ATBD; Peer-reviewed algorithm and product descriptions Uncertainty estimated over widely distribute times/location by multiple investigators; Differences understood. Data available but of unknown accuracy; caveats required for use. Provisionally used in applications and assessments demonstrating positive value. 4Operational Mission Minimal changes expected Stable, Allows provenance tracking and reproducibility; Meets international standards Public ATBD; Draft Operational Algorithm Description (OAD); Peer- reviewed algorithm and product descriptions Uncertainty estimated over widely distribute times/location by multiple investigators; Differences understood. Data available but of unknown accuracy; caveats required for use. Provisionally used in applications and assessments demonstrating positive value. 5 All relevant research and operational missions; unified and coherent record demonstrated across different sensors Stable and reproducible Stable, Allows provenance tracking and reproducibility; Meeting international standards Public ATBD, Operational Algorithm Description (OAD) and Validation Plan; Peer-reviewed algorithm, product and validation articles Consistent uncertainties estimated over most environmental conditions by multiple investigators Multi-mission record is publicly available with associated uncertainty estimate Used in various published applications and assessments by different investigators 6 All relevant research and operational missions; unified and coherent record over complete series; record is considered scientifically irrefutable following extensive scrutiny Stable and reproducible; homogeneous and published error budget Stable, Allows provenance tracking and reproducibility; Meeting international standards Product, algorithm, validation, processing and metadata described in peer- reviewed literature Observation strategy designed to reveal systematic errors through independent cross-checks, open inspection, and continuous interrogation Multi-mission record is publicly available from Long-Term archive Used in various published applications and assessments by different investigators CDR Maturity Matrix: Determines Start-Up Phase

12. 12 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Complexity Serves As Multiplier of Notional Cost Profile Factors: 1)Number, quality & diversity of input streams 2)Resolutions (vertical, horizontal, temporal, spectral) 3)Algorithm complexity 4)Algorithm outputs (#CDRs) 5)Cal/Val complexity and cost

13. 13 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS CDR Prioritization Strawman  Current cost scoping required prioritization strawman –CDR list from joint agency sensor expert teams  Name, Complexity –Ranking followed sequential sorting:  Maturity: In development?  Significance to Global Change  First launch date –Caveats  FCDRs deliberately ranked above TCDRs per sensor  Forcing and State variables funded at 1:1 rate  In practice, CDR Science Advisory Board develops prioritization –5-7 senior climatologists from community

14. 14 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS TCDR Prioritization Sample etc. (28 CDR bundles in total) CDR bundle is costing convenience to group CDRs typically produced from the same or similar algorithm(s). Primary sensor is a costing convenience to associate each CDR with one and only one NPOESS era sensor. It is recognized that data from multiple satellite sensors, and in situ data, are often used to determine a CDR. Significance to Global Change follows from a review of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007). In development: Based on NASA ROSES ’06 A.15 and NOAA SDS 2007 selections. First launch considers only NPP/NPOESS era launches per the mandate of the NPOESS Climate Recovery activity. State and Forcing variable bundles, as defined by CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 12, are prioritized at a 1:1 ratio.

15. 15 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Different Ramp-Up Rates Costed Cost CDR Coverage (Full Maturity By 2026) ■ Slow Rate: Most reach Stage 6 Maturity ■ Proof-of-Concept: Some low complexity CDRs reach Stage 6 Maturity ■ Fast Rate: All reach Stage 6 Maturity

16. 17 TCDRs by 202675 TCDRs by 2026 Program Ramp-Ups: Bounds

17. 17 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Cost Subsidies Under Study  Cost model estimates total cost of program  Core-funded agency activities can reduce new funding needs –NASA EOS and Research & Application programs –Integrated Program Office activities

18. 18 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Notional Lead Roles and Responsibilities ActivityNASANOAA/USGS CDR Development Research Mission(s) / Theoretical Development & Advancements Multimission / Operational Refinement CDR Production Stages 1-3Stages 4-6 Archiving Single Mission Storage and Distribution Long-term Archive and Distribution Applications of CDRs Partner

19. 19 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Status and Next Steps  OSTP/OMP briefed in September  Subsidization analysis now underway  Will seek NRC Review in Fall  Writing Phase 2 revision of the OSTP Assessment (a.k.a. White Paper)

20. 20 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Thank You Joint Team Members NASA – Bryant Cramer, Jack Kaye, Dave Young, Charles Taylor, Thomas Jasin NOAA – Chet Koblinsky, Mike Tanner, Jeff Privette, Tom Karl, John Bates, Mike Bonadonna, Kandis Boyd, Jim Oneal, Gary Davis, Brent Smith USGS - DeWayne Cecil

21. 21 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Working Definitions  Working Definitions of Climate Products for NASA-NOAA Discussion 1) Climate Data Record (CDR): A Climate Data Record is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change [NRC, 2005]. CDRs typically use data from different satellites and sensors extending from present back to the beginning of the relevant satellite observation period. For the NPOESS Climate Capability Restoration objectives, CDRs satisfy three additional characteristics: –CDRs are approved and prioritized by the CDR Science Advisory Team (TBD) composed of climate science leaders representing government, academia and industry; Group reviews of the CDR every 3-5 years to ensure it meets objectives and remains a priority or should be adjusted or sunsetted. –CDRs’ geophysical retrieval algorithms, underlying theoretical bases, and heritage products are mature, validated and proven useful in downstream research and applications. –A CDR wholly or partially satisfies provision of a CCSP Earth Climate System Observation or a GCOS Essential Climate Variable, acknowledging that these consensus lists will change with time. 2) A Climate Information Product is a time series derived from CDRs and related long-term measurements to provide specific information about an environmental phenomena of particular importance to science and society. CIRs are often designed to convey key aspects of complex environmental phenomena in a manner useful to a variety of applications of particular interest to certain stakeholder communities. –Examples of NOAA CIRs include: El Nino Occurrence/Persistence/Magnitude, Antarctic Ozone Hole Area and Magnitude, Drought Indices and Occurrence/Persistence/Magnitude, Hurricane Intensity and Tracks, Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, Various Drought Indices

22. 22 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS CDR Production Occurs Within An End-to-End Program

23. 23 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Sensor Data Records (SDRs) Data (Direct & Remotely Sensed) Fundamental Climate Data Records (FCDRs) Thematic Climate Data Records (TCDRs) Homogenization and Calibration Time-tagged Geo-Referenced Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables Environmental Data Records (EDRs) Converted to Bio-Geophysical Variables CDR Development Requires Different Expertise, Data Paths and Resources Climate Data Records Climate Information Records (CIRs) Climate Data Records or Homogenized Time Series

24. 24 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Example CDR Prioritization (Sort By IPCC, Algorithm Investment, Launch) CDR BundleCandidate Climate Data Records TEMPERTURE PROFILES Lower Stratospheric Temperature Profile, Lower Tropospheric Temperature Profile, Upper Tropospheric Temperature Profile, Surface Air Temperature REFLECTANCE PRODUCTS Surface Reflectance (BRF; NBAR), Blue Sky Albedo (instantaneous), Black/White Sky Albedo,Vegetation Index WATER VAPOR PROFILES Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Profile, Lower Tropospheric Water Vapor Profile, Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor Profile, Total Column Water Vapor, Surface Water Vapor LAND/LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE Land Surface Temperature, Land Surface Emissivity (TIR), Lake Surface Temperature RADIATION BUDGET Top-of-Atmosphere Outgoing Long Wave & Short Wave Radiation, Surface Up/Down Long Wave & Short Wave Radiation GLACIERS/ICE CAPS Glacier Extent, Ice Sheet Extent OZONE Ozone Stratospheric Profile, Tropospheric Ozone, Total Column Ozone, Coarse Ozone Profile SEA PROPERTIES Sea Surface Temperature CLOUD PROPERTIES Cloud Column Water, Cloud Optical Thickness,Particle Phase, Particle Size, Cloud Top Pressure, Cloud Top Temperature, Cloud Top Emissivity, Cloud Column Water Vapor SNOW Snow Areal Extent AEROSOLS Aerosol Particle Size, Aerosol Optical Thickness, Aerosol Refractive Index SEA ICE (TEMPERATURE) Ice Surface Temperature CLOUD PROPERTIES Cloud Cover, Cloud Type FIRES (ENERGY) Active Fire Area, Active Fire Occurrence, Active Fire Temperature, Fire Radiative Power (FRP) TRACE GASES Tropospheric Column of CO, Tropospheric Column of CH4, Stratospheric CH4, Stratospheric CO2, Tropospheric Column of CO2, Lower Tropospheric CO2, Tropospheric N2O LAND COVER (THEMATIC) Land Cover Map (Thematic) IRRADIANCE Downwelling Total Solar Radiation at Top-of-Atmosphere, Downwelling Spectral Solar Radiation at Top-of-Atmosphere FIRES (BURNED AREA) Burned Area PRECIPITATION Rain Rate BIOPHYSICAL PRODUCTS Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR), Leaf Area Index OCEAN WINDS Global Ocean Surface Vector Winds (OSVW), Coastal Ocean Surface Vector Winds (OSVW) OCEAN COLOR PRODUCTS Calcite Concentration, Fluorescence, Chlorophyll A Concentration, Total Suspended Matter LAKES Lake Area Extent LAND COVER (Cont. Fields) Fractional Tree/Grass Cover SEA LEVEL Basic Sea Level Geophysical Data Record (GDR), Significant Wave Height SNOW DEPTH Snow Water Equivalent, Snow Depth

25. 25 Proposed Systematic CDR Program NRC Workshop on Recovery of Climate Measurements from NPOESS Candidate Climate Information Records from Mitigated NPOESS Climate Information Record (CIR) A Climate Information Product is a time series derived from CDRs and related long-term measurements to provide specific information about an environmental phenomena of particular importance to science and society. CIRs are often designed to convey key aspects of complex environmental phenomena in a manner useful to a variety of applications of particular interest to certain stakeholder communities.

26. YearPrimary CDR Program EventsKey NASA ActivitiesKey NOAA/USGS Activities 2007  Prelaunch sensor characterization  Ground system development & testing  CDR algorithm development  Sensor characterization and calibration  Prototype CDR Development & Tests  PEATE Critical Design Review  CLASS protocols  Metadata /QA scheme  Prototype CDR Development & Tests  Participate in NASA PEATE activities 2008  Prelaunch sensor characterization  Ground system development & testing  CDR algorithm development  IDPS-PEATES-CLASS-Data Centers Ground Readiness Review  Prototype CDR Development & Tests  Complete VIIRS VIS/NIR FCDR Algorithm  Ground Readiness Testing for FCDR production  TCDR alg focus: Glaciers/Ice Caps  Continue 2007 Activities  CDR system engineering & procurement (“Climate PEATE”) 2009 Start 1 CDR, 1 CIR NPP Launch (October)  Complete VIIRS TIR FCDR Algorithm  Test VIIRS FCDR Algorithms  Ground Readiness Testing for TCDR production  TCDR alg focus: Sea Properties  TCDR tests: Glaciers/Ice Caps  Continue “Climate PEATE” development  CLASS CDR Ground Readiness Tests  Test NASA-NOAA CDR data protocols  Implement and Test CIR_1 code 2010 Start 2 CDRs, 2 CIRs  Complete OMPS-N & –L FCDR Algorithms  Produce VIIRS FCDRs  TCDR alg focus: Snow  TCDR tests: Sea Properties  TCDR Production: Glaciers/Ice Caps  Archive/Distribution VIIRS FCDRs  Transition VIIRS FCDR codes  Implement and Test CIR_2 code 2011 Start 3 CDRs, 3 CIRs  Produce VIIRS & OMPS FCDRs  Complete CrIS & ATMS FCDR Algorithms  TCDR alg focus: Sea Ice (Temp)  TCDR tests: Snow  TCDR Production: Sea Properties+2010  Co-produce: VIIRS Level 3&4 FCDRs  Transition: OMPS –N & -L FCDR codes  Transition: Glaciers/Ice Caps TCDR  Implement and Test CIR_3 code 2012 Start 3 CDRs, 3 CIRs  Complete ERBS & Jason FCDR Algorithms  Produce OMPS, CrIMMS FCDRs  TCDR alg focus: Clouds  TCDR tests: Sea Ice (Temp)  TCDR Production: Snow +2011  Co-produce OMPS Level 3&4 FCDRs  Co-produce Glaciers/Ice Caps TCDR  Transition CrIS & ATMS FCDR codes  Transition: Sea Properties TCDR  Refine/Produce VIIRS Level 5 FCDRs  Implement and Test CIR_4 code 2013 Start 2 CDRs, 2 CIRs NPOESS C1 Launch  Test ERBS & Jason FCDR Algorithms  Produce CrIMMS FCDRs  TCDR alg focus: Land Cover Map  TCDR tests: Clouds  TCDR Production: Sea Ice (Temp)+2012  Co-produce CrIMMS Level 3&4 FCDRs  Co-produce Sea Properties TCDR  Transition ERBS & Jason FCDR codes  Transition Snow TCDR  Refine/Produce OMPS Level 5 FCDR  Refine/Produce VIIRS Level 6 FCDRs Draft Implementation In NPP Era