1. Hypotheses 9/4/2012

2. Readings Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14- 23) (Pollock) Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31)

3. OPPORTUNITIES TO DISCUSS COURSE CONTENT

4. Office Hours For the Week When – Wednesday 11-1 – Thursday 8-12 – And by appointment

5. Course Learning Objectives 1.Students will learn the research methods commonly used in behavioral sciences and will be able to interpret and explain empirical data. 2.Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design.

6. VARIABLES

7. Turning things empirical 1.We experience it 2.We Define it 3.We give it value (operationalize) 4.We develop a hypothesis to explain/predict what we experienced in step 1

8. The Relationship Between them

9. UNITS OF ANALYSIS How we measure our Variables

10. Units of analysis The unit about which information is collected and that provides the basis of analysis Each member of a population is an element Why they are important?

11. Individual Unit The lowest form of data People, congressmen, presidents, etc

12. Aggregate Data A collection of individual level units Often measured in percentages Footprints

13. The Poor over Time

14. Immigration over time

15. The Problem of Access

16. FALLACIES MADE WITH DATA

17. Ecological Fallacy this arises when an aggregate/ecological level phenomenon is used to make inferences at the individual level. Taking statewide data and applying to individuals Does everyone in MS go to church?church

18. The Exception Fallacy taking one person's behavior, attributes, etc and applying it to an entire group Using 1 example to define group behavior

19. Examples from Texas

20. HYPOTHESES

21. What Is a Hypothesis An educated Guess These are explicit Statements They Try to explain a relationship But they are only tentative until tested

22. The Null Hypothesis The Statement of No Relationship What we want to disprove The Basic start of research H0H0

23. Correlative Hypothesis “there is a relationship between x and y” A very weak statement

24. Positive Hypothesis A directional hypothesis “as the independent variable increases, the dependent variable increases”

25. Positive Relationship

26. Negative Relationship/Hypothesis “As the independent variable increases, the dependent variable decreases” Also called an inverse hypothesis

27. An Example

28. Logarithmic Y=log(x) The dependent variable changes rapidly, followed by less change

29. An Example

30. Curvilinear The Relationship forms a curve! The dependent variable increases to a point, and which point it begins to decrease

31. The Laffer Curve The Debate over taxes Ben Stein

32. Fuel Efficiency

33. Hulk Hogan Roddy Piper (4:44) Roddy Piper King Kong Bundy (2:56) King Kong Bundy

34. More

35. Stating a hypothesis There is a _____(direction)________relationship between ________and ____________

36. CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD HYPOTHESES

37. Good Hypotheses are Empirical Something that we can Measure

38. Good Hypothesis are Generalizable Apply to more than one case Specific Always State a direction Always identify the iv and the d.v. Avoid the correlative hypothesis

39. Good Hypotheses are Plausible There needs to be a Real world justification for why they are related If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquitChewbacca

40. Good Hypotheses are Testable You have to be able to test your hypothesis or it is just speculation.

41. Non-Tautological Your independent and dependent variables are separate concepts

42. A CAUSAL HYPOTHESIS A Test of Scientific Knowledge

43. What is a causal hypothesis? The Boldest Hypothesis out there A relationship that will occur 100% at all times, no exceptions Difficult to Prove

44. To Prove a Causal Hypothesis 1.A Change in the Independent Variable will always cause a change in the dependent variable. 2.A change in X always precedes a change in Y 3.X is necessary and sufficient to cause a change in Y

45. Causality is the heart of scientific knowledge!