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Transitions to Democracy
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The world circa 1960: 20-25 stable liberal democracies,
some newly independent countries trying liberal democracy 80-90 countries either under or tending toward some form authoritarianism
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located primarily in Western Europe, North America,
& the white commonwealth: Australian New Zealand Canada
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Latin America: alternated between shaky polyarchies and military government, e.g. Argentina Brazil Peru Mexico Paraguay…..
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Communist party-state systems:
USSR Poland Czechoslovakia Hungary Bulgaria Romania Yugoslavia People’s Republic of China North Korea North Viet Nam Albania
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The three waves of democratization
1rst wave: 2nd wave: interwar period followed by a reverse wave post world war II: re-democratization of Italy West Germany (Federal Republic of Germany) Japan 3rd wave -- from 1970… to present?
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1970s Greece (military dictatorship, 1967-74) Portugal 1974
end of Salazar-Caeteno regime (from 1931) Spain (1975) end of Franco regime (from 1939)
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1980s collapse of military regimes in Latin America Argentina, 1982
Brazil (opening ) Uruguay Paraguay Bolivia...
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1989and beyond fall of Berlin Wall
collapse of ‘satellite’ Communist regimes in east central Europe break-up of the Soviet Union Chile Republic of South Africa South Korea Taiwan
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Transitional vs. consolidated democracies
Transitional democracies -- newly launched or re-democratized liberal democracies Consolidated democracies: no significant challenges to regime “the only game in town” Some questions: How do we know a regime is consolidated? How do regimes become consolidated?
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Categories, scales, classificatory schemes:
levels of measurement classifying democracies liberal democracy v. non-democracy.. More democratic v. less democratic more stable v. less stable degrees of consolidation: more consolidated v. less consolidated
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Levels of measurement nominal (discrete categories)
ordinal (a scale: positions on it are either: more or less, higher or lower interval (a scale on which positions reflect measured differencesb
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What do we expect to find in a democracy?
Inclusiveness all or almost all of the adult population entitled to vote Elections free and fair elections -- elections with choice competition
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Countries and where they fit:
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Dimensions of liberal democracy:
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Mexico before 2000: constitution some restrictions on political rights
some competition elections, but not entirely free and fair elections dominance of the PRI (Party of Institutional Revolution)
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Nigeria: First Republic: parliamentary system, 1961-1966
civil war blocking Biafran secession, military rule: General Gowan, General Obasanjo, 1975/6-1979 Second Republic: presidential system from Military governments from General Babangida General Abacha Redemocratization in 1993 under Obasanjo
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