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Agriculture Sector Performance in Southern Africa By Pius Chilonda Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA ReSAKSS Africa -Wide Conference on Agriculture:

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Presentation on theme: "Agriculture Sector Performance in Southern Africa By Pius Chilonda Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA ReSAKSS Africa -Wide Conference on Agriculture:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Agriculture Sector Performance in Southern Africa By Pius Chilonda Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA ReSAKSS Africa -Wide Conference on Agriculture: Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy UNECA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 23-24 November 2009

2 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Outline of Presentation Introduction Role of agriculture and recent trends in the context of SADC RISDP/CAADP/MDG Concluding remarks

3 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) ReSAKSS-SA As part of the ReSAKSS network, ReSAKSS-SA is supporting CAADP and SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) by providing analysis and knowledge support for agricultural development, planning and policy for accelerated growth and poverty reduction Monitoring of agricultural sector performance as expressed in CAADP, SADC RISDP, MDG 1 targets is one of our key activities Aim is to provide evidence about role and importance of agriculture based on regionally shared goals; therefore build a case for increased investment in the sector

4 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Monitoring CAADP and SADC RISDP targets A comprehensiveM&E framework has been developed by RESAKSS and informs our work A comprehensive M&E framework has been developed by RESAKSS and informs our work CAADP CAADP – 6% growth in agricultural GDP – 10% budget allocation to agriculture (Maputo declaration) SADC RISDP – 11 indicators to ensure food securitySADC RISDP – 11 indicators to ensure food security MDG 1 – hunger and povertyMDG 1 – hunger and poverty

5 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Main SADC RISDP Agricultural Performance targets Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year and halving the proportion of the population living on less than US$1 per day between 1990 and 2015 1. Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year and halving the proportion of the population living on less than US$1 per day between 1990 and 2015 2. Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% as a percentage of the total by 2015 3. Increasing fertilizer consumption from 44.6 kilograms per hectare ((kg/ha) of arable land to 65 kg/ha of arable land by 2015 (world average is 98.8 kg/ha) 4. Increasing cereal yield in kg/ha hectare from an average of 1,392 to 2,000 (world average) by 2015 5. Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies such as improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by 2015 6. Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annually

6 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) The role of agriculture and recent trends in the context of SADC RISDP, CAADP and MDG1

7 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Human population is still largely rural based Source: World Bank (2009)

8 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Agriculture still employs more people than non- agricultural sectors Source: FAOSTAT (2009)Note: Estimated and Projected -2008-)

9 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Agriculture is most important in 7 low income countries out of 15 SADC countries (2008 ) Low income Lower middle income Upper middle income % agric. GDP Source: World Bank (2009)

10 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) SADC wide GDP growth rates impressive since 2003, but yet to reach SADC RISDP target SADC RISDP target (7% GDP growth) % GDP growth rate Source: World Bank (2009)

11 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) … strong GDP growth yet to translate into poverty reduction and improved welfare…… Source: SADC (2008)

12 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Agriculture needs to contribute to more economic growth in order to contribute to poverty reduction Source: World Bank (2009)

13 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Along with SSA, the SADC region has low agricultural value added per worker Source: World Bank (2009)

14 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Progress towards the 6% agriculture GDP CAADP growth target CAADP ag GDP target (6%) Source: FAOSTAT (2008)

15 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Average cereal yield still to reach 2000kg/ha SADC RISDP target Source: FAOSTAT (2008) SADC RISDP target 2000kg/ha by 2015

16 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Maize productivity relatively flat Source: FAOSTAT (2008)

17 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Livestock production against SADC RISDP target of at least 4% growth per annum 4% growth in livestock production

18 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Net importer of livestock products in value terms Source: FAOSTAT (2008)

19 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Fertilizer consumption yet to achieve SADC RISDP target of 65kg/ha SADC RISDP target 65kg/ha by 2015 Source: SADC (2008)

20 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Progress towards the SADC RISDP target of 7% of area under irrigation SADC RISDP target 7% area under irrigation by 2015 Source: SADC (2008)

21 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Progress towards 10% share of agriculture in public investments 10% Maputo declaration

22 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Percentage of agriculture budgets in national budgets- Malawi

23 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Sub-sector contribution in total agriculture spending - Malawi

24 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Composition of Agricultural Spending: The Case of Zambia Source: ReSAKSS-SA, MACO (Zambia), MSU (Zambia) Example of Zambia’s 2005 Budget

25 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Concluding remarks

26 Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA) Conclusion There is varying progress in agricultural sector performance, with most targets yet to be met Challenges still exist: –stabilizing and enhancing agricultural growth rates –increasing budget allocations to the sector and identification of policy and investment options –Increasing agricultural productivity, especially narrowing the yield gaps –Enhancing market access, while taking advantage of regional integration efforts

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