1.   THE PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT and THE CHANGING ROLE OF THE TECHNICAL SPECIALIST Roland Clift Director, Centre for Environmental Strategy University of Surrey GUILDFORD, Surrey, GU2 7XH

2.   THE HUMAN ECONOMY

3.   THREE DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY ECO-CENTRIC CONCERNS SOCIO-CENTRIC CONCERNS TECHNO-CENTRIC CONCERNS Natural resources and ecological capacity Techno-economic systems Human capital and social expectations

4.   HOW DID WE GET HERE? DECISIONS which failed to recognise: - The limits to the global stock of non- renewable resources; - The limits to the planet’s “carrying capacity”; - The rights of others, including future generations Not an exclusive list…

5.   A TAXONOMY OF DECISIONS Decisions Decisions with agreed criteria Decisions without agreed criteria With prior articulation of preferences Without prior articulation of preferences

6.   THE NEW PARADIGM DECISIONS involving an extended peer community SPECIALISTS who contribute to deliberative decision processes but are not prescriptive - “HONEST BROKERS”

7.   POST-NORMAL SCIENCE (after Ravetz)

8.   ARTICULATION OF PEOPLE’S VALUES SYNTHESIS review formulate objectives define and frame recognise problem scientific assessment implementation analysis economic appraisal technological options risk assessment THE RCEP MODEL OF DELIBERATIVE DECISION PROCESSES DECISION

9.   AN EXAMPLE: UK POLICY ON ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION 22 ND REPORT: “ENERGY – THE CHANGING CLIMATE” (2000)

10.   “…the world is now faced with a radical challenge of a totally new kind which requires an urgent response… By the time the effects of human activities on the global climate are clear and unambiguous it would be too late to take preventive measures.” Recommended ensuring that concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not exceed 550 ppmv, twice the pre-industrial level.

11.   A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT APPROACH: “… an effective, enduring and equitable climate protocol will eventually require emission quotas to be allocated to nations on a simple and equal per capita basis… nations’ emission quotas (should) follow a contraction and convergence trajectory.” “…UK carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced by almost 60% from their current level by mid-century.”  

12.  SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

13.   SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Three “legs” to the argument, corresponding to the three components of sustainable development: 1.Enviro-centric: limit on carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere; 2.Socio-centric: the “contract and converge” principle; 3.Techno-centric: the target is technologically and economically feasible.

14.   KEY DISCIPLINARY INPUTS GEOPHYSICS – effects of change in atmospheric composition PHILOSOPHY – ethical basis for planning within the geophysical constraints ENGINEERING – technical and economic feasibility of actions

15.   IS THIS TECHNOLOGICALLY FEASIBLE? Demand-side reductions: e.g. improved building performance; modal shifts in transport; lesser improvements in manufacturing. - Would be encouraged by carbon levy… Supply-side changes: - renewable energy sources; - electrical storage; grid stability; - carbon dioxide sequestration; - nuclear or fossil electrical generation; - different transport fuels and drives. Estimated cost of 60% reduction in UK = 2% of GDP  

16.    AND DON’T FORGET…. Thermodynamics represents one of the few immutable truths!