1. Macroeconomic Aspects of Intergenerational Transfers Brazil Cassio M. Turra Bernardo L. Queiroz Elisenda Renteria-Perez

2. Summary of 2005 activities  Two presentations (international seminars)  Three papers  Extended abstract (PAA 2006)  Section (ABEP 2006)  Research assistant: Elisenda Renteria-Perez (who is doing great!)  Two fronts: 1) prepare historical series of public transfers (SS); 2) estimate consumption age profiles

3. Objectives  Discuss estimates of private consumption: 1987 (POF), 1996 (PPV), 2002 (POF)  Other Consumption: NTA Equivalence Scale vs. Engel  Health and Education: Regressions vs. Self-reported Data  Impact for future analyses

4. Consumption age profiles: Data Available in Brazil PPV  Based on LSMS  Only for 1996  70% of the Brazilian population  Individual consumption on education and health POF and ENDEF  Provide weights to consumer price index  1974, 1987, 1995, 2002 (maybe 1 for the 1960s)  Household consumption only

5. 1) Per Capita Other Consumption – PPV 1996

6. 2) Per Capita Other Consumption – NTA Scale

7. 3) Per Capita Consumption of Health – PPV 1996

8. 4) Per Capita Consumption of Health – Regression

9. 5) Per Capita Consumption of Education – PPV 1996

10. 6) Per Capita Consumption of Education–Regression

11. Good News! Per Capita Total Consumption – PPV 1996

12. But maybe not so good… Per Capita Total Consumption – PPV 1996

13. Does it matter or not? Test: Average Age at Consumption Method Quasi-Stable Young Brazil 1970 Transitional Population Brazil 2010 Quasi-Stable Old Brazil 2050 NTA Scale + Regressions 30.336.545.4 Engel + Regressions 27.234.544.3 Difference 3.12.01.1

14. Per Capita Total Consumption: 1987, 1996, 2002

15. Discussion  Health: How to obtain better estimates?  Other Consumption: Should we apply the same NTA scale every year?  Are we artificially shaping the age profiles?

16. Work Plan for 2006  Re-estimate NTA for 1996 using Turra’s thesis and methods recently developed by Ron & Andy et al.  Write a paper using the 1996 estimates  Estimate historical series of public transfers: (education and health)  Write PAA paper for presentation at ABEP 2006  Keep providing training to Elisenda  Organize weekly meetings at Cedeplar, Brazil

17. Win our Sixth World Cup!