1. A Preliminary Investigation in the Development of Breeding Objectives for Pinus radiata Paul Chambers Tony McRae

2. Objectives Review of the STBA members production systems issues of concern Estimation of economic weights using existing relationships between traits and profit (from Greaves 2000 & Chambers 2000) Recommendations easy transition to the FWPRDC project

3. Brief Theoretical Background

4. Use of Breeding Objectives: a Common Scheme for alternative decisions (e.g. alternative choices of parents) selection criteria, breeding values, genetic response a profit function (i.e. calculation of the objective) used to combine genetic merits of various traits into a single value (profit)

5. Methodology specification of the breeding, production and marketing systems identification and definition of the wood-flows and the sources of income and cost determination of the biological traits influencing wood-flow, income and cost derivation of the economic value of each trait formal definition of the breeding objective

6. Profit Functions Hazel (1943) introduced the “total merit index”: H = w 1 A 1 + w 2 A 2 +... + w n A n Profit Trait Units slope = economic weight

7. Profit Functions Hazel’s objective (profit function) revisited linear combination of traits coefficients (economic weights) were the effect on profit when all other traits are held constant –non-linearity between a trait and profit ?? dealt with trait breeding values –what about non-additive genetic effects ??

8. The Breeding Objective Genetic Values Management Variables PROFIT FUNCTION PROFIT

9. Industry Review ( February & March 2000)

10. Industrial Process forest growers chemical (kraft & sulphite) pulping thermo-mechanical pulping saw-milling (appearance, structural) composites veneers (plywood, LVL) particleboard fibreboard (hardboard, MDF)

11. Production Systems Remanufacture

12. Production Systems

14. Future Work kraft and sulphite pulping extend to paper properties sulphite pulping: a management solution ? saw-milling improvement of current profit functions composites development of profit functions (gluability important!) risk traits and GxE incorporate into formally defined objectives

15. Issues from Saw-millers resource issues uniformity of wood (core, knots, reaction wood etc.) wood for end-use flexibility juvenile wood core (centred) how do we define it ? is it masking the real issue ? management issues log sorting ? drying degrade ?

16. Yield Tables several partners had yield tables which relate log properties to timber class SED, length, taper, sweep link these tables to forest growing phase (maximise profit per tree for the grower) big issue is how branching affects these relationships ? assume management controlled variables are optimised, but can we ? access to spacing trials

17. Market Signals ? ok between processors and consumers traditionally breaks down between processors and growers lack of communication between these groups promote understanding of issues (mill studies) however basis is there ! premiums paid on log size, region etc.

18. Saw-mill Model ? relating timber grade (profit) to log properties national database for sawing studies ? –continually revised and updated create software for distribution ? the case of SAWMOD in NZ

19. An Economic Objective (using HVP as an example)

20. General Production System Two Main Components 1. growing trees in the forest 2. the conversion from this raw resource into some desired end-product HVP only involved in the first – use neo-classical economic production theory – thus assume as for a vertically integrated firm

21. Major Regions HVP’s plantation estate divided into four main regions: 1. North-east Victoria 2. Gippsland 3. Ballarat 4. South-west Victoria

22. Methodology define the production systems (for each region) define key assumptions used develop a model for each production system which calculates enterprise profitability define the traits which impact directly on profitability model the impact of objective traits on each production system calculate economic weights sensitivity analysis

23. Breeding Objective Traits MAI WOOD BASIC DENSITY STEM SWEEP STEM TAPER TIMBER WORKING STRESS PULP YIELD BRANCH INDEX