1. .

5. Demography Sectoral Demographics Regional Demographics

6. Projections and Weights

7. .. 100*(Best-Worst)/2003 Value

8. Developments: Probability, Impact and Timing 1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives. 59.9-3.5111.1 1.2 China and India becomes 50% urbanized52.3-3.7016.4 1.3 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10% of people 62.6-3.818.7 1.4 Standard vaccinations of 70% of all children under five years 57.5-4.467.2 1.5 Maternal healthcare and nutrition used by 75% of women49.3-4.089.2 1.6 Literacy rate of women in developing countries reaches 85% 47.4-3.5711.9 1.7 Number of people classed as poor grows by 15%60.53.087.6 1.8 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%. 43.1-3.928.4 2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries 2.1 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices. 59.9-3.604.8 2.2 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50%. (See 1.8)) 43.12.669.6 2.3 New products for human nutrition (e.g. essentially free vitamin capsules) reaches majority in developing countries 45.92.769.5 2.4 Improvements in the system of food transport and distribution reducing food waste by 10%. 57.52.767.6 2.5 Harvest reductions due to severe weather events (including climatic change) causing losses in a given year of 2% of the world’s crops 60.8-3.737.8 2.6 Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in arable land of 3%. 66.5-4.1310.2.

9. Weights

10. Interpretation of Likelihood Likelihood by or before 2014 5 = almost certain= 90% 4 = very likely= 75% 3 = as likely as not= 50% 2 = unlikely= 25% 1 = almost certainly not = 5%

11. Interpretation of Impact Ratings Impact (percent) = (median of the panel’s input-1) / 4 x (max plausible percentage )

12. Variable Max Plausible Impact (%) Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 3 Food availability Calories/capita Developing Countries 4 GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US) 20 Percentage of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 8 CO2 atmospheric, ppm 10 Maximum Plausible Impact

13. A Special Problem There were many cases where the impacts were obviously negative and yet the respondents’ answers indicated positive impacts. Why? –Instructions about the possibility using a negative impact were not emphasized –Because “negative” and “positive” impacts could be interpreted as either: Moving the curve up or down Moving the curve in a beneficial or detrimental direction Intent: –A positive impact means that if the development were to occur, the variable it affected would increase in numerical value, even if this were a socially unfavorable direction. –A negative impact would mean that if the development were to occur, the variable it affected would decrease in numerical value, even if this were a socially favorable direction.

14. Solution: Assigned Impact Values 4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.1 Cost effective desalination or other techniques increases safe water supply by 20% globally 4.2 New agricultural practices reduce water consumption 10% per unit of agricultural production. 4.3 Global climate causes frequent floods in some regions polluting the water; drought in others, makes water 5% less available on the whole. 4.4 Improved sanitation increases clean surface water by 5% 4.5 World population growth of 20% (See 2.10) 4.6 Simple, very low cost, small water purification technologies able in the poorest regions 4.7 Construction and use of high volume inter-watershed pipelines 4.8 Terrorists contaminating water supplies; supplies remain unusable for decades.

15. Trend Impact Results

16. Trend Impact Results (2)

17. Trend Impact Results (3)

18. Trend Impact Results (4)

19. Trend Impact Results (5)

20. SOFI 2004

21. SOFI Comparison

22. . TIA worse than panel’s “best” 100* (Best- Median TIA)/Median

23. .

24. Sensitivity Test Development: “Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people” –Panel: Probability by 2013: 51.33% Impact on the variable: “Terrorist Attacks, number of people killed or wounded:” 15.2% Time for the impact: 7 years –New: Probability by 2013: 51.33% Impact on the variable: “Terrorist Attacks, number of people killed or wounded:” 1,250% (about 100,000 people) Time for the impact: 0.25 years

25. High Impact Event

26. A Different Future

27. Policy Simulation Development Orig Prob Orig Impact Orig Timing New Prob New Impact New Timing 15.2: “Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people” 51.331,2500.25101,2500.25 9.4 “Developed nations commit the resources necessary to end AIDS and treat HIV” 52.6-4.239.575-505

28. Effect of Policies