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CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center CMAS Conference 2009 Enhancing SMOKE to create European emissions.

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Presentation on theme: "CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center CMAS Conference 2009 Enhancing SMOKE to create European emissions."— Presentation transcript:

1 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center CMAS Conference 2009 Enhancing SMOKE to create European emissions with focus on Benzo[a]Pyrene Team: Johannes Bieser, Armin Aulinger, Volker Matthias, Markus Quante GKSS Environmental Chemistry Department

2 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Outline 1.Introduction 2.Data Sources 3.Changes to the SMOKE model 4.Comparison with measurements

3 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Benzo(a)Pyrene chosen as a lead substance for PAHs PAHs imperil humans and ecosystems – highly bioaccumulative (food chain) – persistent in various environmental compartments – significant adverse effects already at low doses carcinogenic impair immune system impair reproduction Why PAHs ? B(a)P Object of international reduction conventions and national legislation EU: 1 ng/m³ average value in ambient air GB: 0.25 ng/m³ average value in ambient air in 2010

4 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Main BaP Sources today BaP results from incomplete combustion Domestic Combustion Wood Industrial production Industrial combustion ~ 50% Coal Coke Ovens Vehicle exhausts Wild fires Diesel Aluminium Production Waste Incinerators

5 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center BaP Sources over time

6 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center 2. Data Sources

7 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center SMOKE - emissions model Biogenic emissions model Mobile emissions model 2D-emissions processor Plume in Grid Point source model Top-Down Bottom-Up

8 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Area Sources

9 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) - Annual emission totals for Europe and surrounding countries - Species: CO, NOx, SOx, NMVOC, NH 3, PM, (POPs, HMs) - Official national reports as well as expert estimates - 11 different Source Sectors (SNAP Sectors) Official Inventories

10 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Global Population of the World Resolution: 1 x 1 km Data available for: 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

11 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center CORINE Land Cover database 100 x 100 m 1990 & 2000

12 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center USGS Global Land cover

13 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center NUTS regions NUTS 0Country NUTS 13 million to 7 million pers. NUTS 2800000 to 3 million pers. NUTS 3150000 to 800000 pers.

14 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center EUROSTAT Official European statistics: Publishes economic, business, social, energy, monetary, trade, agricultural, environmental statistics - Temporal resolution: monthly - Spatial resolution: county level (NUTS3) - Employment rates for different industrial sectors - Net working times - Animal stocks - Air traffic - Fuel and Energy consumption - …

15 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Point Sources

16 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center European Point Source Emission Register Includes: 12000 point sources plant type location activity pollutants inventory years: 2001 & 2004

17 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Mobile Sources

18 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center openstreetmaps

19 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center openstreetmaps

20 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center TREMOVE database Annual per country data: - 20 European countries - 6 different transport networks motorway non-urban road urban road rail water air - Vehicle fleet size - Fleet composition - Fuel consumption - Total km driven - Annual total emissions - 10 different on-road vehicle categories moped motorcycle car van bus light duty truck heavy duty 3.5 – 7.5t heavy duty 7.5 – 16t heavy duty 16 – 32t heavy duty > 32t

21 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Biogenic Emissions Biogenic Sources

22 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Biogenic Emissions Forest cover database 120 different tree types Land use data argicultural usage paterns land type Different LAI for winter and summer Wild fires (not included) Mineral Dust (not included) Resolution: 1 x 1 km Inventory year: 2000

23 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center 2. Changes to SMOKE

24 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Changes to the SMOKE model Problems: - Very large regions (up to 675000 m² and 80mio. inhabitants) - Temperature dependend emissions (Residential Heating) - Much pre-processing of spatial surrogates

25 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Changes to the SMOKE model SMKINVENSPCMATGRDMAT SMKMERGETEMPORAL Calculated for each day Calculated once for each scenario

26 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Changes to the SMOKE model SMKINVENSPCMATGRDMAT SMKMERGETEMPORAL Calculated for each day Calculated once for each scenario MODMAT NORMAT MCIP meteorologic fields

27 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Changes to the SMOKE model Advantages - The additional routines can be turned on/off independent from the standard SMOKE modules - Gives better spatial resolution for big regions - Gives better temporal resolution - Daily instead of monthly temporal profile - More realistic annual profile - Can be used with any netCDF file via reference and profile ASCII files

28 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center 3. Comparison with measurements

29 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Modelling Domain - 54x54 km grid over Europe - 18x18 km nest North and Baltic Sea - 30 vertical layers up to 100 hPa - 12 min time steps - Scenario years: 2000 & 2001 - chemical mechanisms CB IV & CB V - meteorology MM5 & CLM - BC from ERA40 - emissions created with SMOKE: CO, NOx, SO 2, NH3, PM, NMVOC BaP

30 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center 21 Measurement Stations Daily average values EMEP Measurement Network Sulfate concentrations Scenario: Grid:54x54 km Meteorology:MM5 Mechanism:CB IV Years:2000 & 2001

31 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Sulfate concentrations

32 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center 8 Measurement Stations Daily average values EMEP Measurement Network Ammonium concentrations

33 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Sulfate concentrations

34 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center 8 Measurement Stations Daily average values EMEP Measurement Network Nitrate concentrations

35 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Sulfate concentrations

36 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center 48 Measurement Stations Hourly average values EMEP Measurement Network Ozone & BaP concentrations

37 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Codeconc. Samplingdepos. samplingCountryStationNetwork ASP1 week per month1 wk./m. bulkSwedenAspvretenEMEP KOS1 day per weekCzech Rep.KoseticeEMEP PAL1 week per monthFinlandPallasEMEP ROEweeklySwedenRörvikEMEP BOR1-2 days per weekGermanyBornhövedGFEA ZAR1-2 days per weekGermanyZarrentinGFEA RADevery second dayGermanyRadebeulGFEA WESmonthly wetGermanyWesterlandGFEA ZINmonthly wetGermanyZingstGFEA EMEP: European Monitoring and Evaluation Program GFEA: German Federal Environmental Agencies BaP Measurements Stations measuring BaP

38 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center BaP Measurements

39 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center BaP Measurements

40 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center BaP Measurements Annual average concentrations Code observationmodelNMB correlation 20002001200020012000200120002001 ASP0.0480.0370.2240.232 3.70 5.310.440.65 KOS0.1690.2230.1560.132-0.08-0.410.640.47 PAL0.0060.0310.0040.004-0.34-0.870.320.86 ROE0.0780.1050.0640.064-0.18-0.400.720.66 BOR0.1000.2680.2130.210 1.12-0.220.490.45 RAD0.7220.6390.2340.235-0.68-0.630.700.67 ZAR0.3470.106-0.700.34

41 CMAS Conference 2009 Johannes Bieser, Institute for Coastal Research – GKSS Science Center Thank you for your attention!

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