1. The Landuse Evolution and Impact Assessment Model L E A M Brian Deal LEAM Laboratory Department of Urban and Regional Planning University of Illinois

2. OverviewOverview  Why model?  What is LEAM?  Preliminary results  What role does LEAM play?  Next steps

3. What is Modeling?  Describing how systems behave  Describing different system components  Describing different mechanisms that cause change  Descriptions are typically mathematical expressions  Graphic representations are easier to understand and manipulate

4. Why Model?  Complex systems behave in unexpected (emergent) ways  Caused by feedbacks and lags  Caused by uncertainty  Understanding systems requires knowing  How systems behave “normally”  A range of other systems behaviors  What-if scenarios

5. Why Model?  The model building process is as important as the end result  Helps groups develop a shared understanding  Provides a common frame of reference  Helps create institutional memory

6. What is LEAM?

7. LEAM Approach  Captures causal mechanisms of land-use change  Environmental, Social, Economic  Appropriate scales  Captures dynamics of complex systems  Feedbacks  Lags  Captures impacts of land use change  Causal relationships  Environmental, Social, Economic  Incorporates calibration and validation  Quantify uncertainty data models impacts decisions

8. Land-use DriversLand-use Impacts Map 3 Map 2 Map 1 M M M M MM M M M M M M M M M M M M MM GIS Maps SME Model Drivers Land-use Change Impact Assessment

9. Static Data

10. Proximity Measures

11. Slope Map Slope Score Map Slope Map Development Score

12. mcLEAM Preliminary Results

14. McHenry County

15. Base 2030 Yellow/Red is new growth

18. LEAM base Overlay on Natural resource inventory

19. LEAM base run On Common Ground plan

20. Scenario Analysis  LEAM analysis of  Public policy choices  Public investments  I-90 Interchange at US23  Current condition vs added interchange

21. Comparison map High growth run

22. LEAMs Role in Planning?

23. LEAMs Role  Legacy Planning  Broader applications

24. Legacy Planning Applications  Resource risk assessment  Conflict emergence over time  Dynamic interactions

25. Broader Planning Applications  Beyond Legacy planning  Assessing future outcomes  Public policy  Investments  What-if scenarios  Assessing implications  SOP  Dynamic planning  Uncovering inconsistencies

26. Next Steps  Break Out Sessions  Groups of approx eight  Local expertise and experience  Set of diverse maps are provided  Resource inventory maps  Agricultural Resources, Cultural Resources, Natural Resources  System-of-Plans maps  Region, County, Southwest portion, Marengo, Huntley, Unified  LEAM land-use change maps  Base run, New Ramp scenario, Comparing land-use pattern with regional plans, Comparing land-use pattern with resource inventories  Are these building blocks more generally useful to planning in McHenry County?  What improvements can be made to them?

27. Break Out Sessions  Session 1  Consider how the resource inventory, the System of Plans, and LEAM simulations can be used to create elements of a Local Legacy plan in McHenry County.  1. Are the data in the resource inventories correct? What additional data about resources are needed?  2. Which resources are already protected? Which resources are addressed in plans? Which resources are not addressed?

28. Break Out Sessions  Session 2  New interchange on I-90 at US 23 in southwest McHenry County.  1. How does this proposal relate to other proposals or expectations in existing plans? Are there interesting differences among existing plans in terms of expected land uses, regulations, and capital investments?  2. How might the System of Plans, LEAM, or the Legacy Plan help you usefully discuss and persuasively oppose or support this proposal?