1. 1 Update on the Coverage Improvement Program for the 2010 Census Dave Sheppard Decennial Statistical Studies Division Census Information Center Program October 9-11, 2007

2. 2 Coverage improvement Many operations or aspects of programs may lead to improved coverage in the Census We’ll focus on two of them today…

3. 3 Some plans to improve coverage for the 2010 Census Review and possibly revise census enumeration residence rules and how we communicate these rules to respondents. Determine ways to identify households with within- household coverage error and then develop and test methods to reduce the error. In addition, Census Bureau staff will also provide an update on plans for measuring coverage error in Census 2010.

4. 4 Some major coverage improvement topics not covered today: Improve housing unit coverage by identifying the best methods for keeping the Master Address File (MAF) up to date Develop methods for identifying the duplication of persons and housing units in the census

5. 5 Coverage? Coverage Improvement Methods to address census error Impacts census counts of people and housing units Coverage Measurement Evaluates the error in the Census Does not change census counts

6. 6 How do we end up with everyone* counted only once and in the right place? * or at least as many people as possible

7. 7 2010 Census coverage improvement research - two approaches Get it right the first time Help respondents to initially include the correct people on their Census form Fix it later Identify households with coverage problems, get back in touch with them, and make corrections

8. 8 Improve residence rules instructions to respondents Self response paper forms Enumerator wording for roster building Simplify residence rules Review of rules from Census 2000 To get it right the first time …

9. 9 To fix it later, we identify households … We identify households with potential coverage problems because: They missed counting someone (omissions), or They counted someone who should not have been counted there (erroneous enumerations)

10. 10 Identify omissions Count discrepancies (low person count) Use of undercount coverage question Use of administrative records Identify erroneous enumerations Count discrepancies (high person count) Use of overcount coverage question Use of unduplication within the census For both omissions & erroneous enumerations Large households … for specific reasons

11. 11 The CFU Interview 1.Verify the household and the validate the address 2.Review the list of people reported in the initial enumeration 3.Update the roster Remove anyone who is unknown Add anyone who is missing 4.Ask questions about possible living situations for each person on the updated roster 5.Collect any missing demographic information

12. 12 Past  Present Census 2000 – About 2% of all households –Large households (LHH) –Count discrepancies (CD) 2010 research – LHH/CD and ??? –Undercount coverage question –Overcount coverage question –Use of administrative record matching –Use of person matching to identify duplication Coverage Followup Field Verification`

13. 13 Large households (LHH) Household contains more people than fit on the form –Mailback cases with 7 or more people Conducts CFU interview to: –Improve coverage –Collect demographics for persons 7+

14. 14 Count discrepancies High data defined person discrepancies (HDDP) Reported more people than the reported POP count on the census return Low data defined person discrepancies (LDDP) Reported fewer people than the reported POP count on the census return

15. 15 Count discrepancies (cont.) Conduct CFU interview to improve coverage –Even if no one is added or deleted, we still determine the correct HH size

16. 16 Undercount coverage question Asked once at the household-level Directly after question 1 about household size To identify housing units with potential omissions Probes include types of people historically missed in the Census

17. 17 Undercount coverage question for the 2008 Dress Rehearsal

18. 18 Overcount coverage question Asked once for each of the first six people listed on the form To identify housing units with potential erroneous enumerations Probes include places where people are historically overcounted in the Census

19. 19 Overcount coverage question for the 2008 Dress Rehearsal

20. 20 Use of administrative records First time we used this methodology was in the 2005 NCT, then in the 2006 Census test Returns identified that contain fewer people than the administrative records database has for that address Designed only to identify potential omissions

21. 21 Use of person matching to identify duplication Research from Census 2000 continued this decade Identifies both potential person and housing unit duplication Resolution through Coverage Followup or Field Verification

22. 22 Residence Rules Instructions One little box … so many rules

23. 23 Residence rules instructions Explains how to apply the Census Residence Rules on paper forms: –Three sets of bullets detailing who to include who not to include how to count people without a permanent place to stay –A question about the number of people in the household

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25. 25 Ongoing & Future Research

26. 26 Ongoing & future research for coverage followup Streamline coverage followup selection criteria –Comparing efficiencies of all types of cases –Primary measure: Cost per change to a roster Added people and deleted people –Additional consideration possibly given to other factors as well Effects on differential undercount Effect on net census error

27. 27 Ongoing & future research (cont.) Improve the coverage followup interview Identification of cases through the use of administrative records Identification of duplicates through person matching

28. 28 Questions? Dave Sheppard david.w.sheppard@census.gov