1. Arona L. Pistiner International Relations Officer, U.S. Census Bureau United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Conference of European Statisticians Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Palais des Nations, Geneva 30 September – 2 October 2015 Changing Times, Changing Methods, Changing Technologies: Innovation and Testing for the United States 2020 Population and Housing Census 1

2. One Chance to get the 2020 Census Right 2

3. Four Major Innovation Areas to Reduce the Census Cost 3

4. 2020 Census Innovation Areas and Testing 4

5. Optimizing Self-Response What are we talking about?  Giving people more options to respond to the Census, so we do not have to knock on their doors.  Internet is cheaper than paper, paper is cheaper than a field operation. What are we researching and developing?  Testing ideas to measure how much we can increase self- response.  Researching new techniques such as email, text, social media, and leveraging the Internet to give the respondent options.  Testing multi-language support. 5

6. 2020 Census Innovation Areas and Testing Optimizing Self-Response 6

7. Assumptions:  Online response rate will be about 50-55 percent.  We will include paper questionnaires using a mail-out/mail-back approach.  Will result in a reduction of paper data capture operations workload and field infrastructure as compared to the 2010 Census.  Approach has potential savings of US$548 Million. 7

8. Key Design Components:  Employ the use of a pre-registration phase (with a tool called “Notify Me”).  Allow respondents to answer the 2020 Census Questionnaire without an identification code (“Non-ID” processing). Option 1 is to provide on-line tools that allow real- time matching and geocoding at the time of questionnaire completion. Option 2 is to conduct batch processing of matching and geocoding at specific periods during the day. 8

9. Key Research Questions 9  What are the best methods for communicating the importance of responding to the 2020 Census as measured by public response?  What is the estimated self-response rate? What are the response rates for different modes?  What infrastructure is necessary to support the Internet as the primary mechanism for self-response?  Is there value in asking households to pre-register for the census?  Is it necessary to provide households with an identification code to respond via the Internet?

10. Reengineering Field Operations What are we talking about?  Using technology, data, and GPS to collect interviews efficiently. What are we researching and developing?  Streamlining data collection using smart phones and tablets to lower costs.  Managing through technology not brick-and- mortar field offices.  Automating logistics to increase workforce efficiency. 10

11. 2020 Census Testing Reengineering Field Operations 11

12. Assumptions  Increase Non-response Follow-up (NRFU) productivity by 20 percent using automation.  Remove late responses from the NRFU workload.  Reduce the total number of local census offices (LCOs) by 5 percent.  Reduce the total square footage of LCOs by 70 percent.  Reduce the number of clerical staff by 20 percent.  Redesign the training strategy to reduce enumerator-training hours by 35 percent.  Establish a lower training pay rate than the production pay rate.  About 75 percent of enumerators will use bring their own device (“Bring Your Own Devise”).  Reduce the phone/personal visit contact cycle (relative to the 2010 Census) from a maximum of six contacts to a maximum of three contacts.  Use adaptive design (routing and dynamic case management) to allocate resources efficiently.  Approach has the potential savings of US$2.3 Billion. 12

13. Key Research Questions  How can the Census Bureau reduce the cost of field operations with automation?  What is in the model for reengineered field operations?  How will the field staff structure change?  How will we manage interaction with employees?  What is the optimal workload assignment for field staff?  Where will workload management occur?  What type of systems and devices will be used for: Case assignment Routing and navigation Data collection Administrative activities  Will the Census Bureau build or buy these systems?  How will the employees obtain the handheld devices for enumeration? 13

14. Key Design Components  Reengineer the field work: Provide enumerators with daily, optimal, and sequence contact attempt assignments. Provide supervisors with electronic access to enumerator workload and status information. Automate training.  Reengineer the field staff structure: Redefine field staff roles. Change how we think about work schedules. Change staffing ratios. 14

15. 2014 Census Test We tested:  Notify Me” – the use of pre-registration of emails and phone numbers in order to enable email and automated voice invitations to participate.  The use of the Internet and Telephone as response options.  The use of mobile devices and a “data collection app” for conducting field interviews.  The use of alternative contact strategies for non-responders, such as telephone calls or personal visits.  The use of administrative data to remove cases form the field visit workload (both vacant and occupied housing units). 15

16. 2014 Census Test - Continued Preliminary findings include:  A self-response rate of 70.9 percent.  Internet self-response rate of 58.3 percent.  Email invitations or email reminders were not an effective replacement for postal mail.  Enumerators were successful in using the smartphone and the “data collection app” for nonresponse follow-up.  There were potential benefits of using administrative data for enumeration. 16

17. 2014 Census Test - Continued We also learned some valuable lessons:  Using email as an initial invitation and reminder contact strategy was not an effective replacement for traditional mail pieces.  Also, the short time-frame we allowed between mailings limited our ability to exclude households who responded from subsequent mailings.  We also experienced a much higher call volume to our Telephone Questionnaire Assistance Center than we projected. 17

18. Overview of the 2015 Tests  The Address Validation Test enabled us to assess the performance of the methods and models that will help us develop the 2020 Census address list and develop workload models.  The 2015 Census Tests conducted in Maricopa County, Arizona and Savannah, Georgia allowed us to employ a variety of new methods and advanced technologies that are under consideration for the 2020 Census.  The 2015 National Content Test will aid us in obtaining a nationwide measure of response rates for Internet and self-response. 18

19. 2015 Census Tests – Maricopa County, Arizona 2015 Census Test We are testing the reengineering of the field roles, responsibilities, and infrastructure for conducting field data collection. This includes:  Reengineer the roles, responsibilities, and infrastructure for the field.  Automate tasks traditionally performed by people.  Test and implement routing and navigation.  Test a Bring Your Own Device component.  Determine how administrative data and adaptive design can reduce the NRFU workload and determine contact strategies.  Three panels: Control, Hybrid Administrative Records Panel, Full Administrative Records Panel.  Using focus groups to explore reactions to the contact methods, use of administrative data, privacy and confidentiality concerns, and how the Census Bureau might address those concerns. 19

20. Maricopa County, Arizona - Continued Preliminary findings include: COMPASS: Application was easy to use. Experienced crashes and freezes of the application; further investigation into root causes is needed. Coverage questions added to respondent burden. Field Test Procedures: Work needed to define a coordinated approach to enumeration within multi-units and gated-communities. Refinement to data collection application “pathing” needed to better assist enumerators in cases on proxy responses and non-interviews. Bring Your Own Device: Training was fairly labor intensive. Based on observations, no adverse respondent reactions to the device being used for data collection. 20

21. 2015 Census Tests – Savannah, Georgia Optimizing Self-Response Test The scope of the test includes:  Conduct early research on the use of advertising an outreach to engage and motivate respondents.  Determine the utility of an early engagement, pre-registration option.  Understand the operational feasibility of real-time Non-ID processing as well as its impact on self and internet response rate, and the system workloads generated by it.  Research how advertising, outreach, and promotion can engage and motivate respondents for action.  Three initial mail panels designed to determine if we can optimize self and internet response rates: “Internet Push,” “Notify Me,” and “Non-ID.” 21

22. Savannah, Georgia- Continued 22 Preliminary findings include: The weighted total response rates of the three panels were:  Internet Push – 47.5 percent  Non-ID Internet Push – 44.4 percent  Notify Me Postcard – 46.3 percent Low Participation in “Notify Me:”  1,925 participants pre-registered Self-Response among Non-Sampled Housing Units:  An additional 35,249 Internet responses from housing units not selected in mail panels  Response attributed to advertising and promotional efforts Successful implementation of real-time Non-ID processing:  Matched 98.5 percent of cases New postcard panel generated response of approximately 8 percent.

23. 2016 Tests: Harris County, Texas and Los Angeles, California  Refine technologies and methods for assigning cases to field staff conducting nonresponse follow-up and continue to refine the use of mobile technology for data collection and case management.  Continue to research how best to use existing government and commercial data to reduce the follow-up workload (using data to identify vacant units or to reduce additional visits for household we are unable to contact).  Study partnership and outreach efforts for communicating with historically hard-to-count populations, including providing assistance in multiple languages.  Continue to explore self-response options, including how people respond using the Internet, mobile devices, the telephone, and paper questionnaires.  Continued refinement of methods to process responses in real time submitted without a unique Census-provided address identification code (non-ID processing). 23

24. 2017 Testing and Beyond  The 2017 Test will focus on address canvassing.  In 2018, we will conduct operational readiness testing, including an end to end test of census operations and systems.  In 2019, our early 2020 operations begin. 24

25. Summary The better part of this past year we have spent narrowing our efforts to lead us to our design decisions. 25

26. 2020 Census Design Decision  The 2020 U. S. Census will be fundamentally different from prior censuses to meet our goals and the changing needs of the American public.  Major design decisions for the 2020 Census will be announced October 6, 2015. 26

27. Questions 27