1. Coordinated by: CARBOOCEAN Marine carbon sources and sink assessment Integrated Project Contract No. 511176 (GOCE) Global Change and Ecosystems

2. Overview: Where we stand What we need to do here What the challenges are

3. Where we stand

4. Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IP Guiding the management of sustainable development CO 2 emmisions Objective 5: Prediction, future assessment Initial conditions Objective 1: Short-term assessment System dynamicsBoundary conditions Objective 3: Assessment of Regional European Contribution Objective 2: Long term assessment Objective 4: Assessment of feedbacks

5. Over-arching activity: Prediction Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment Final Workshop Kick-Off Meeting Month Phase: 019375560 Understanding Nowcast and Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment Description Core Theme 1: NAtl and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial C inventory changes Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks

6. Over-arching activity: Prediction Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment Final Workshop Kick-Off Meeting Month Phase: 019375560 Understanding Nowcast and Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment Description Core Theme 1: NAtl and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial C inventory changes Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks now

7. Over-arching activity: Prediction Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment Final Workshop Kick-Off Meeting Month Phase: 019375560 Understanding Nowcast and Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment Description Core Theme 1: NAtl and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial C inventory changes Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks now 2007 meeting 18 month plan

8. Major observing systems are in place: Surface pCO 2 data coverage: …

9. Water column inventory of anthropogenic carbon for year 1994 (Sabine et al., 2004, Science) Change in CO 2 partial pressure in North Atlantic (Omar and Olsen, 2006, Geophysical Research Letters) atmosphere surface ocean New understanding coming in:

10. What we need to do here

11. What we need to do here: -Listen to each other -Find out what is newly emerging -Get new visions and take them home

12. What we need to do here: Listen to each other Find out what is newly emerging Get new visions and take them home “bottom up” - the juicy stuff - See what needs to be finished this year and prepare report Concretely formulate what should be done in months 25-42 ”top down” - the base frame -

13. What we need to do here: Listen to each other Find out what is newly emerging Get new visions and take them home “bottom up” - the juicy stuff - See what needs to be finished this year and prepare report Concretely formulate what should be done in months 25-42 ”top down” - the base frame -   

14. Agenda overview: Monday 4 Dec Overview, science highlights, discussions Tuesday 5 Dec Science highlights, discussions Wednesday 6 Dec Science planning and concrete detailing Thursday 7 Dec Training, panels, science poster session Friday 8 Dec Guest lecture, wrap up

15. What the challenges are

19. www.spiegel.de

22. What the challenges are: -Quantify uncertainties in ocean CO 2 uptake -Reduce these uncertainties -N.Atl. Sink: decadal event vs. monotonous change -Biological feedbacks and uncertainties -Circulation slow down and C cycle -Describe accurately what is certain -Go in massively into outreach

23. Water column inventory of anthropogenic carbon for year 1994 (Sabine et al., 2004, Science) Change in CO 2 partial pressure in North Atlantic (Omar and Olsen, 2006, Geophysical Research Letters) atmosphere surface ocean What the challenges are:

24. 1991-1995

25. What the challenges are: 1996-2000

26. What the challenges are: 2001-2005 Poleward of 50 deg Equatorward of 50 deg What are we missing?

27. What the challenges are: -CT 1: establish error bars for current air-sea- exchange estimate and compare with previous uncertainties -CT2: how much has accuracy for anthropogenic CO 2 inventory in ocean improved? -CT3: how can we help to reduce uncertainties in continent wide flux estimates? -CT4: how large are biological FB uncertainties? -CT5: how large are uncertainty extrapolations in time? -Cross cutting: describe what is certain/uncertain

28. Loosen up and also dream big dreams! Be precise and concrete! Do not forget that we have a mission to society…

29. Thank you, Melchor!