1. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 23, 2006 ‘Scenario Coaster’ Coming to terms with the mainstream peaking scenarios.... an addendum to ‘Our Future(s)’ ‘Our Future(s)’

2. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Rapid Depletion and/or early peaking Slow Depletion and/or later peaking Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios “Techno-Markets” aka “Sustainable Development” aka “Sci-Fi Utopia” “Burnout” aka “Climate Chaos” aka “Business as Usual” “Lean Economy” * aka “Powerdown” aka “Energy Descent” “Collapse” aka “Mad Max” aka “Easter Island” * per David Fleming

3. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO 2005 2006 +20 yr. Global Oil Production - Peaking Scenarios (likely head-start required to fully mitigate peaking*) Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca * per the ‘Hirsch Report’

4. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 2006 Global Oil Production....... Which scenario is preferable? Which is scariest? 1970

5. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 2006 +20 yr. Global Oil Production – A Scary Peaking Scenario - ASPO Scary: Fossil fuel production pleateaus, then drops off unexpectedly. Very few countries have plans in place to deal with the massive economic turbulence.......‘Collapse’....or if you cooperate locally.... ‘Lean Economy’ @#$%! where’d that come from?! Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

6. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 2006 +20 yr. Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

7. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 2006 +20 yr. Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA Scary – Part 1: Fossil fuel production ramps up faster than ‘clean-fossil’ technologies that sequester emissions – leading to accelerated global warming, pollution, sprawl, and oil dependence....‘Burnout’ Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

8. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 2006 +20 yr. Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA Scary – Part 2: Fossil fuel production plateaus, then drops off a cliff... New technologies can’t come close to making up the difference.......‘Collapse’ @#$%! Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

9. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere2005 ASPO 2005 2006 +20 yr. Global Oil Production – The Scariest Peaking Scenario - CERA ‘Burnout’ + ‘Collapse’ = (Probably not a preferred future) @#$%! Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

10. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO 2005 2006 +20 yr. Global Oil Production – Smoothest Peaking Scenario - Laherrere ! Not too scary: Oil and gas peak around 2012, but we’ve had a few years to get ready. We encounter some shortages, but the decline of oil and gas is slow enough that some of the ‘clean fuels’ actually make a bit of a difference.....‘Techno-Markets’.. if the mainstream politicians got the incentives right back in ’06.....‘Lean Economy’... if you had to go-it-alone with just your local community. Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca

11. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 CERA 2005 ExxonMobil 2005 EIA (High Price) 2006 BP 2005 Koppelaar 2005 Laherrere 2005 ASPO 2005 2006 +20 yr. Global Oil Production – Energy Transition Strategies Curves Compiled by Freddy Hutter www/trendlines.ca (a) (c) (b) 1. Can you generate a broad consensus around the fact that (a) and (c) are possible, but probably not desirable. 2. If so, then plan your mainstream policies around a consensus path*...probably something similar to (b)?. 3. Develop contingency plans for dealing with either (a) or (c). 4. Start. Now. * Whether or not you think this is the most probable.. it needs to be the one we can agree on as being preferable – peakniks, economists, politicians, and everyone in between.

12. DRAFT: June 23, 2006 Bryn Davidson 604.728.0606 bryn@dynamiccities.org bryn@dynamiccities.org Dynamic Cities Project www.dynamiccities.org www.dynamiccities.org Rao/D Cityworks www.rao-d.com www.rao-d.com These scenarios are a work-in- progress. Thanks to everyone who has commented thus far... ‘Scenario Coaster’ an addendum to ‘Our Future(s)’