1. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy PREFER WP 3.1.7 Prescribed Fire Map Methodology to Map the Areas Suitable for the Prescribed Burning Lorenzo Fusilli (DIAEE)

2. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Project WP 3.1.7 status This presentation is focused on the description of a methodology for the identification of the areas most suitable for the application of the Prescribed Burning (PB) practice PB represents the controlled application of fire to vegetation under specific environmental conditions to attain planned resource management objectives. PB is one of the most versatile and cost effective land management tools primarily used to reduce dangerous fuel accumulations, thus providing increased protection to people, homes and forest. Short overview of the PB practice

3. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The use of PB is a well established practice in US whereas in Europe it is still a disputed matter and generally not permitted. However, important changes have taken place for PB in the last years, especially in those countries which were pioneers in its introduction. Although the benefits of the PB are clear, there are also notable concerns. The main constraints for the introduction and implementation of the PB are: Project WP 3.1.7 status  fire bans  complex land structure  lack of professional experience  negative public perception

4. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The most important EU project on the analysis of the PB has been Fire Paradox. The overall objective was the creation of the scientific and technical background towards integrated fire management practices and policies in Europe. In the framework of FP a software application has been developed for the management of PB  PB Mapper The software PB Mapper provides two importat functions: Fast location of potential prescribed burning treatments in a geographic area, using multiple criteria as input Effectiveness assessment of the proposed PB treatments on the Fire hazard reduction (in terms of Fire Line Intensity). Project WP 3.1.7 status

5. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy However the main limitation of PB Mapper is the Time factor, the lack of information on the temporal window most convenient to perform the PB. This topic is the main improvement that the methodology, developed in this WP, intends to make for the wild fire prevention based on the prescribed fire shrubland PB area Pinewood This WP aims at developing a dynamic product, easily updatable, to predict the right time and the secure way to employ the PB in the Areas of Interest Project WP 3.1.7 status

6. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The satellite data will have a key role. Input Static Parameters Topography Roads Settlements Land use/cover Dynamic Parameter Weather conditions Vegetation conditions Daily Fire Hazard Map Maps of the potential PB treatments Areas suitable for the application of the PB practice Output by DIAEE by other partners The actual status of this WP New intermediate products will be created and used as input together with other PREFER products. Project WP 3.1.7 status Fireline intensity map

7. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy This methodology has been tested on the Sardinia AOI, across a time range of eight years, corresponding to the fire seasons (from June 15 to September 30) between the years 2005 and 2012. Description The methodology takes into account part of a procedure developed in the Regional fire-fighting Plan of the Liguria Region (implemented in the SIGRI Project). Project WP 3.1.7 status The objective is to map the areas most susceptible to fires and on which to apply the PB practice. Several spatial datasets were used as input data: Climate map ( according to University of Sassari) Fuel map (by JRC) Roads network (vector format) High Resolution SAR-derived DEM, (pixel resolution 10 m) Natural Parks and protected areas Burned Areas from 2005 to 2012 ( by the Regional Forestry Corps (CFVA) Land Use 2008 (vector format) available online: http://www.sardegnageoportale.it/ http://www.sardegnageoportale.it/ SOURCE DATA

8. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy DEM Topographic parameters extraction Fuel Climate Elevation Slope Aspect Input Range definition and classification Homogeneous Territorial Classes Layers combination Fire Propagation Probability Burned Areas Geospatial Hazard Urban areas Agricultural areas Protected areas Buffer zones extraction classification intersection PB Map output Project WP 3.1.7 status Workflow

9. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The parameters considered are: Topographic parameters: Slope Aspect Elevation DEM Environmental Parameters: Fuel Climate The combination of all these parameters provides a kind of landscape classification. Each new class represents a distinctive combination of the parameters considered, defined as: Homogeneous Territorial Classes (HTC). Slope Aspect HTC 5° 25° 270° N 90° N graphic example to calculate the HTC, in the case of only two parameters. A B C D Each parameter has been discretized in order to obtain a limited number of exclusive classes Project WP 3.1.7 status The methodology takes into account some topographic and environmental characteristics related to the burned areas.

10. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Others Data taken into account are: Roads Natural Parks and protected areas Urban Areas Agricultural Areas To create the protection buffer areas around vulnerable areas in which to apply the PB Project WP 3.1.7 status

11. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Topographic parameters Elevation, Slope and Aspect has been derived by using a DEM (available online http://www.sardegnageoportale.it/) having spatial resolution of 10 m.http://www.sardegnageoportale.it/ The ELEVATION layer has been divided into 4 ranges or classes Elevation < 100 m Class 1 100 m < Elevation < 500 m Class 2 500 m < Elevation < 1000 m Class 3 Elevation > 1000 m Class 4 Project WP 3.1.7 status

12. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Topographic parameters The Slope layer has been divided into 3 ranges or classes Slope < 5° Class 1 5° < Slope < 25° Class 2 > Slope > 25° Class 3 Project WP 3.1.7 status

13. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Topographic parameters The Aspect layer has been divided into 5 ranges or classes Aspect = ZenithClass 0 -45° < Aspect < 45° (North) Class 1 45° < Aspect < 135° (East) Class 2 < 135° < Aspect < 225° (South)Class 3 225° < Aspect < 315° (West)Class 4 Project WP 3.1.7 status

14. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Environmental parameters Fuel At this stage of the WP, we are using the Fuel map produced by JRC. However, the final version of the fuel map produced by GMV will be used. In this case, only 8 of the 24 fuel models are present in the AOI, in particular: JRC Fuel Model Name NFDR Fuel model 1 Grassland vegetated by annual grasses and forbs A 6Sclerophylous oakwood vegetationF 12 Grassland vegetated by perennial grasses L 15 Broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex and Q. suber O 18Broadleaved forestR 19Sparsely vegetated areasS 20Transitional Woodland shrubT 24Non forest classX Project WP 3.1.7 status

15. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Environmental parameters Climate Sardinia is characterized by a mediterranean climate. Three climatic zone are present in this AOI: 1 2 3 Project WP 3.1.7 status Defined by the University of Sassari

16. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy ElevationSlopeAspectFuelClimate < 100 m< 5°Zenith Grassland vegetated by annual grasses and forbs Lauretum hot subzone 100 – 500 m 5°- 25°NorthSclerophylous oakwood vegetation Lauretum intermediate subzone 500 – 1000 m> 25°East Grassland vegetated by perennial grasses Lauretum cold subzone > 1000 mSouth Broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex and suber WestBroadleaved forest Sparsely vegetated areas Transitional Woodland shrub Non forest class 4 classes3 classes5 classes8 classes3 classes In summary, for this preliminary analysis we have got: Now, it is possible organize the cells into HTC. Project WP 3.1.7 status

17. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The theoretical maximum number of HTC is equal to the combination of the classes. This number corresponds to the product: 4 x 3 x 5 x 8 x 3 = 1440 HTC (theoretical value) In this case study the number of the HTC is 706. Each HTC represents a particular “information/combination” of the five parameters considered (Elevation, Slope, Aspect, etc.) Procedure to calculate the HTC Project WP 3.1.7 status

18. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy The ten most abundant HTC and related parameters CodeArea (Ha)ElevationSlopeAspectFuelClimate 22123075,37 E1 < 100 S1 < 5°Est24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 21522505,31 E1 < 100 S1 < 5°Sud24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 20916768,17 E1 < 100 S1 < 5°West24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 20310748,97 E1 < 100 S1 < 5°Nord24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 2748711,91100 < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°West 6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ 2838148,51100 < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°Sud6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ 2927159,23100 < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°Est6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ 2657030,8100 < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°Nord6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ 2844876,2100 < E2 < 500 S3 > 25Sud6 – Sclerophylous oakwood veget.2 - Lauretum interm. SZ

19. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Where Cb ik : burned area of the k i-th fire within the HTC i-th (Ha) T : time range (8 years) N i : number of fires in the time range T in the type i-th C i tot : area of the HTC i-th 0 FPP Values 1.6 LowHigh At this point, it is possible to obtain the Fire Propagation Probability (FPP) defined as: FPP i Project WP 3.1.7 status

20. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Top ten of the FPP values related to HTC parameters FPPHTC CodeElevationSlopeAspectFuelClimate 1,57219 100 < E2 < 500 S3 > 25Sud24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 1,35213 100 < E2 < 500 S3 > 25West24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 1,25207 100 < E2 < 500 S3 > 25Nord24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0,25222 E1 < 100 S3 > 25Est24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0,15201100 < E2 < 500 S1 < 5°Zenith24 – No Forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0,14126E1 < 100 S1 < 5°Zenith18 – Broadleaved forest1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0,09181100 < E2 < 500 S2 > 25°Nord20 – Transitional Woodland shrubs1 - Lauretum hot SZ 0,06611100 < E2 < 5005 < S2 < 25°Sud 12 – Grassland vegetated by perennial grasses 3 - Lauretum cold SZ 0,059E1 < 1005 < S2 < 25°West 1 – Grassland vegetated by annual grasses and forbs 1 - Lauretum hot SZ The FPP values are reclassified in 5 classes of “Geospatial Hazard”. Only the classe 5, 4, 3 are taken into account for the application of the PB. FPP valuesClassHazardPB application > 0.35Very HighYes 0.05 – 0.34HighYes 0.05 – 0.0053ModerateYes 0.005 – 0.00052LowNo 0 - 0.00051Very LowNo 0No class Project WP 3.1.7 status This table can provide some information about geospatial conditions favorable for the spread of fire I would expect the final results before drawing any conclusions

21. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Map of the Fire Propagation Probability Map of the Geospatial Hazard Mask of the fuel model 24 “No Forest” Quickly review the last 3 steps Map of the Homogenous Territorial Classes FPP valuesClassHazardPB application > 0.35Very HighYes 0.05 – 0.34HighYes 0.05 – 0.0053ModerateYes 0.005 – 0.00052LowNo 0 - 0.00051Very LowNo 0No class FPP i FPP valuesClassHazardPB application > 0.35Very HighYes 0.05 – 0.34HighYes 0.05 – 0.0053ModerateYes 0.005 – 0.00052LowNo 0 - 0.00051Very LowNo 0No class White color indicates the Fuel Model 24 (JRC): No forest Class (Agricultural areas, Urban areas etc.) Project WP 3.1.7 status

22. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Now, we have to create a protection buffer zones around the vulnerable areas, by using the vector layers of the Urban Areas, Agricultural Areas, Woodland, Parks and Protected areas, Roads LayerBuffer Natural Parks/Protected areas100 m Woodlands and shrublands150 m Urban Areas150 m Agricultural Areas100 m Main Roads25 m Urban Areas Agricultural areas Woods and shrublands Parks and Protected areas Main Roads Buffer zones Project WP 3.1.7 status

23. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Geospatial Hazard Buffer zones Prescribed Fires Map 1 Grassland vegetated by annual grasses and forbs 6Sclerophylous oakwood vegetation 12Grassland vegetated by perennial grasses 15Broadleaved forests of Quercus ilex and suber 18Broadleaved forest 19Sparsely vegetated areas 20Transitional Woodland shrub 24Non forest class The intersection between the Buffer zones and the classes 5, 4, 3 of the Geospatial Hazard provides the areas devoted to the PB practice Project WP 3.1.7 status

24. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy Further developments In the next six months the methodology will be update by implementing the final version of the Fuel Map produced by GMV Dynamic parameters will be analyzed for the assessment of the Fire line intensity to define the optimal temporal window for the application of the PB. In particular:  Weather conditions  Vegetation conditions (NDVI, moisture, fuel map)  Daily Fire Hazard Map Project WP 3.1.7 status

25. PREFER 1 st Annual Review Meeting, 5-6 Dec 2013, Milano-Italy …of course any suggestion to modify/improve this methodology is welcome Thanks a lot for your attention!