1. Lecture 12 Big Problems

2. Global Warming

3. The E-M Spectrum

4. Fate of Solar Radiation Reaching the Earth reflectionclouds snow and ice the earth’s surface atmospheric dust reflectionclouds snow and ice the earth’s surface atmospheric dust

5. Fate of Solar Radiation Reaching the Earth absorptionatmosphereoceansland plant photosynthesis absorptionatmosphereoceansland

6. Fate of Solar Radiation Reaching the Earth radiationradiation

7. The Greenhouse Effect

8. Greenhouse Gases Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Water Vapor Ozone

9. Thousands of Years Before Present Temperature Change ( o F) Atmospheric CO 2 (ppm)

10. Year Temperature Carbon Dioxide Temperature Change ( o F) Atmospheric CO 2 (ppm) Atmospheric CO 2 & Surface Temperature Trends

11. b Sea level rise b Increased plant primary productivity b Shifts in the distribution of plants and animals b Water contamination and outbreaks of water-borne diseases b Increased storm severity b Potential melting or enlargement of polar ice caps b Changes to patterns of rainfall b More severe droughts or increased precipitation b changes to ocean circulation patterns Predicted changes with increased greenhouse warming

12. Ice Age 18,000 years ago

13. Sea Level Changes due to Ice Ages and Ice Cap Melting

14. Year Changes in Mean Sea Level Mean Sea Level Rise

15. Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Comparison between 1979 & 2005 Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Comparison between 1979 & 2005

16. Early Fall Arctic Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Extent (million km 2 ) Year

17. Greenland Seasonal Surface Melting Surface melting

19. Permafrost

21. Permafrost melting

23. Drunken forest

24. Year North Atlantic Tropical Storms 10-year running average North Atlantic Tropical Storms 10-year running average Named Tropical Storms

25. 1 Meter Sea Level Rise Waikiki http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/HMRG/FloodingOahu/index.php http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/waikiki.html

26. Sea Level Rise Destroys coastal habitat (e.g. salt marshes, mangroves) Destroys human property Increases pollution Decreases freshwater supply

27. Effect on Marine Life Phytoplankton bloom due to light and temperature cues Changes will impact food web Hypoxia may result

28. Effect on Fisheries Migrations are in response to temperature May impact fisheries

29. Effect on Corals Coral bleaching Leads to loss of habitat and food for reef- dependent species

30. Currents Oceanic conveyor belt may change ocean currents Currents carry plankton Bring food and oxygen Distribute eggs and larvae Remove wastes and pollutants

31. Salinity Animals have a narrow range of tolerance Glacial melting inputs lots of freshwater

32. Acidity CO 2 makes water acidic Corals and other calcium carbonate species can’t make skeleton Impact on plankton development impacts food web

33. Temperature Higher temperature results in less O 2 - Results in hypoxia Ice melting leaves no resting/hunting areas for polar bears Antarctic Krill impacts food web

34. Larsen B Ice Shelf 220 m thick Lost 5700 km 2 (2x Rhode Island) Reduction of 40%

35. Invasive Species Algae smothers coral Invasive species out-compete natives

36. Weather Events More severe weather patterns El Niño Hurricanes Mudslides Forest Fires Drought

37. Sea Surface Temperature July 24, 2012 http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

38. Origin and paths of tropical cyclones Tropical cyclones are intense low pressure storms created by: –Warm water –Moist air –Coriolis effect

39. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) El Niño = warm surface current in equatorial eastern Pacific that occurs periodically around Christmastime Southern Oscillation = change in atmospheric pressure over Pacific Ocean accompanying El Niño ENSO describes a combined oceanic- atmospheric disturbance

40. El Niño Oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean Occurs during December 2 to 7 year cycle Sea Surface Temperature Atmospheric Winds Upwelling

41. Normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean

42. El Niño conditions (ENSO warm phase)

43. La Niña conditions (ENSO cool phase; opposite of El Niño)

44. El Ni ñ oNon El Ni ñ o 1997

45. Non El Niño El Niño thermocline upwelling

46. El Niño events over the last 62 years 82-83 65-66 72-73 57-58 86-87 91-92 94-95 97-98 02-03 09-10 Red - Strong El Nino Blue- Strong La Nina Black – moderate (either) 50-51 55-56 64-65 70-71 73-74 75-76 88-89 98-99 99-00 07-08 10-11 11- 12

47. 196919511957195019551973 197619631965195419701975 197719681972195619981988 200419861982196220071999 20061987199719642010 19911967 19941971 20021974 20091984 1995 2000 El NiñoLa Niña WeakModStrongWeakModStrong 2011

48. Effects of severe El Niños

49. Ozone (O 3 ) protects life on earth from the damaging affects of ultraviolet radiation (UV) Natural produced by sun’s energy in stratosphere and lightening Ozone destroyed by CFC’s Studies suggest that the ozone layer has been gradually “thinning” since 1975. Human activities are depleting the atmospheric ozone

50. Ultraviolet Radiation “A threat to the continuation of life” 2 Humans:DNA damage Cancer Crops:Productivity decrease Ocean plants:Death? VisibleInfrared (IR)UV

51. Ultraviolet Radiation stratospheric ozone layer CFCs:refrigeration electronics foam packaging spray propellants destroy UV ‘96: CFC decrease noticed 2006: stabilization? ‘96: CFC decrease noticed 2006: stabilization?

52. Antarctic Total Ozone Trend 400 195019601950 2010 300 200 100 0 Total ozone (Dobson units) Ozone blocks UV

53. Oct. 1979

54. Oct. 2011

55. Size of the Antarctic ozone hole Average Area: millions sq km North America Antarctica Prediction: 50 years to return to 1980 size 1979 2001 30 20 10 0

56. Natural Phenomena Upper atmosphere research satellite Volcanic emissions? Sea spray? Direct evidence Direct evidence sunspots

57. Why is it Important? Early Warning If global warming, likely more serious consequences

58. Nuclear Contamination 3 SEVERE HIGH ELEVATED GUARDED LOW

59. Ocean Dumping total > 10 million Curies Three Mile Island (‘79) = 17 Curies Chernobyl (‘86) = 100 million Curies Fukushima (2011) = 60 million Curies US Other Switzerland Great Britain USSR

60. Arctic Ocean Russia Soviet Union’s Atomic Dumping Ground Moscow

61. Human Population Growth Crowding Resource depletion Water shortages Epidemic diseases Food supply limitations “Population Wars” 4

62. World Population 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1500170019002100 estimates (millions) Year How is the trend changed?

63. Can Society Respond Has society become skeptical Must we assign blame Is there leadership Can we get multinational agreements Can we afford it

64. Questions CFC’s contribute to: Major gasses involved in global warming are: Global warming may result in these environmental consequences: A severe El Nino can cause _______ in California. Much of Russia’s nuclear waste is stored _______.