1. Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Beijing, September 25, 2005 Institutions and Technology for Development: on sources and policies of pro-poor growth in agriculture and the rural economy

2. Questions  What are the evolving sources of agricultural growth?  is large “beautiful” for agricultural growth?  how can agricultural growth be designed to be pro-poor?

3. Overview I. Structure and Change in Global Agricultural Systems and Productivity - Food system change and small farms - Productivity in agriculture II. Sources of Agricultural Growth and Rural Development - Institutions - Infrastructure III. Science and Technology - Agricultural research - Information and communications technology IV. Global Scenarios’ pro- and anti-poor effects

4. Bifurcations of world agriculture: stylized facts Agricultural Domains DominantMarginal Farms Large assets Small assets Agro-ecologiesSustainableNon-sustainable TechnologiesUsing advanced scienceLittle connected to science Markets in which they operate IntegratedFragmented Agro-industryCompetitiveNoncompetitive People directly affectedFewMany

5. GROWTH RATES OF WHEAT YIELDS ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH in percent 1970s1980s1990s2000s* All Developing Countries 4.43.12.00.8 Brazil10.413.22.96.5 China7.63.92.81.4 India3.23.91.61.0 (Source: FAOSTAT, various years) * 2000-2004

6. Total Agr. Factor Productivity Growth in China, India, USA; 1970s-1990s ChinaIndiaUSA 1970-80 1.31.11.2 1980-90 4.12.23.5 Sources: Fan and Zhang (2002) for China; Fan, Hazell, and Thorat (1999) for India, and Ahern et al. (1998) for USA.

7. IMPACT model projections Progressive Policy Actions Scenario: New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural Development Policy Failure Scenario: Trade and Political Conflict, rise in protectionism worldwide Technology and Resource Management Failure Scenario: Adverse technology/natural resource interactions

8. Projected world cereal yields Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)

9. Projected world maize price Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)

10. Projected number of undernourished children, China Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)

11. Questions  What are the evolving sources of agricultural growth?  is large “beautiful” for agricultural growth?  how can agricultural growth be designed to be pro-poor?