1. An analysis of Russian Sea Ice Charts for 1933-2006 A. Mahoney, R.G. Barry and F. Fetterer National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Colorado, 80303, USA AARI ice chart April 8-11, 2006

2. Outline Introduction Background on AARI ice charts Method Locating discontinuous pack ice edges Results 20 th Century sea ice extent variability Comparison with other data Meteorological data Other ice charts Summary and conclusions

3. Introduction and Background

4. About the AARI* ice charts Operational sea ice charts generated approximately every 10 days, dating back as far as 1933 Charts produced by assimilation of different observations: satellite active / passive microwave airborne radar and infrared visual observations from aircraft, ships and coastal stations coastal radar installations buoy-mounted instrumentation automatic ice stations Provide information on: sea ice concentration stages of development ice forms *Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute St Petersburg, Russia

5. Airborne radar flightlines Standard pattern of airborne radar observations Carried out periodically through the year since 1970s Highest concentration along Northern Sea Route From: Remote Sensing of the Sea Ice in the Northern Sea Route, Studies and Applications, Johannessen et al, 2007

6. AARI ice charts in EASE grid Ice charts are provided in SIGRID* format and converted to EASE-Grid** Separate charts for eastern and western Russian Arctic Spatial and temporal coverage is variable and discontinuous * Sea Ice Grid (World Meteorological Organization) **Equal Area Scalable Earth Grid – details at http://www.nsidc.org/ease

7. Examples of early AARI ice charts Chart coverage is poor Mostly limited to reconnaissance flights within range of coastal stations Still possible to identify and locate the ice edge

8. Method

9. Coast-to-pole vectors 360 vectors along meridians from the coast to the pole Used for locating the edge of the pack ice Can cope with discontinuous edges

10. Locating the edge of the pack ice 1)Transition to <15% ice concentration 2)Pack ice / landfast ice boundary 3)The coast Algorithm looks for ice edge along every coast-to-pole vector Ice edge is defined by either:

11. Manual inspection of algorithm Algorithm can be confused around islands and polynyas In these cases, the edge is corrected manually The edge on every chart will be manually inspected

12. Results

13. Spatio-temporal coverage of results Only spring and summer months charted in early years Frequency of charts increases through record Continuity of ice edges improves over time

14. Changes in sea ice extent Much regional variability Reduced autumn ice extent in early 20 th century Increasingly negative anomalies in both spring and autumn since 1970s Missing data during key period (1993-1996) Manually inspected

15. Changes in sea ice concentration Comparison of decadal monthly means Increase from 1940s – 1970s is mostly matched by the loss between 1970s and 2000s

16. Comparison with other data

17. Temperature and pressure anomalies Derived from station data North of 65°N Early and late part of record warmer than middle Evidence of decadal variability

18. Ice and temperature variability No significant interannual correlation between ice and air temperature Adjacent seas show similar temperature trends, but different trends in ice extent Similarly weak relationship to station SLP observations No consistent correlations with Arctic Oscillation index

19. Comparison with NIC * charts Overall mean difference is close to zero AARI charts report higher concentration in autumn and winter NIC charts report higher concentration in summer No apparent long-term differences though number of common cells between chart sets increases with time * National Ice Center AARI > NIC > AARI

20. Summary AARI ice charts provide a long timeseries of ice extent variability in Russian Arctic Manual inspection of ice edges required throughout record Ice edge results so far indicate: Reduced ice extent in 1930s – 40s greatest reduction in Barents Sea Most evident in fall minimum extent Greater reduction in ice extent since 1970s Evident in both spring and autumn Hi-latitude observations show cooling in mid 20 th Century No direct correlations with ice extent variability

21. Future work Finish manual inspection of ice edges More detailed analysis of sea ice variability Both temporal and spatialBoth temporal and spatial Include landfast sea iceInclude landfast sea ice Statistical analysis of atmospheric forcingStatistical analysis of atmospheric forcing Extend comparisons with other datasets Derive an optimal, merged sea ice record from different chartsDerive an optimal, merged sea ice record from different charts

22. Acknowledgements Vasily Smolyanitsky Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) St. Petersburg, Russia Providing the AARI data in SIGRID format with near- EASE-grid regridding software Joey Comeaux National Center for Atomspheric Research (NCAR) Boulder, Colorado, USA Assistance acquiring meteorological station data NASA Award NNG04GH03G, “Twentieth Century Sea Ice Conditions in the Eurasian Arctic from a Comprehensive Reconstitution and Synthesis of Russian Data Sources with Modern Satellite Data”