1. Advisory group meeting 10 October 2008 Work Package 1: Mortality trends and their implications

2. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications To model and project mortality levels and trends: Overall patterns in Britain & other developed countries Marital-status differences in mortality Cause-specific mortality to assess the sensitivity to assumptions about future prevalence and incidence of the key set of diseases Sex differentials Socio-demographic variables and how they may change in decades to come

3. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications Outputs: Forecasts & cross-national analyses of mortality trends using a range of recently-developed statistical methods as inputs to other Work Packages Elucidate processes by which cohort effects may work through particular diseases by analysing the role of cause-specific mortality Assess whether socio-economic differentials continue up to the highest ages, and, in particular, whether these differentials are changing over time.

4. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications Project-specific Inputs & Outputs: Mortality rates by sex, age and some variables e.g. marital status in period up to 2030 used to produce estimates of numbers of older people under a range of alternative assumptions.

5. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications Mortality trends & implications linkages

6. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: Modelling mortality using age period cohort (APC) models Tesselation of mortality surface in symmetric format

7. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades Mortality actual

8. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades Mortality, all ages 16 & over

9. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades Limiting long−standing illness actual

10. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: associations between macro level mortality and morbidity trends in Britain in the past three decades limiting long−standing illness, all ages 16 & over; N=508046 model= ns

11. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: age and proximity to death as factors in use of acute and long-term care services Average Number of Days in Hospital/LTC, in previous 12 months by Sex, Age and Survival status, Finland

12. Work package 1: Mortality trends and their implications: age and proximity to death as factors in use of acute and long-term care services Average Number of Days in Hospital/LTC, in previous 12 months by Age, Marital status and Survival status, Finland

13. Work package 3: Kinship analysis Estimates of childlessness in Britain from the middle of the 19th century: proportions of women ever−married by exact ages 35,40 and 45

14. Work package 3: Kinship analysis Estimates of childlessness in Britain from the middle of the 19th century: all series (combined marriage ages), adjusted for non−marriage

15. Work package 3: Kinship analysis Data quality in retrospective surveys: childlessness estimates by cohort & age at interview (smoothed)

16. Work package 3: Kinship analysis: c hanging kinship universes across the demographic transition Average number of living kin: comparison of survey and model data

17. Work package 3: Kinship analysis: c hanging kinship universes across the demographic transition Proportion with living natural parents by age of ego