1. The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson

2. The EGG Project (aka the Global Consciousness Project) International collaboration 75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, … Network of host sites world wide The tools: FieldREG technology … Make an EEG for the earth, an Electrogaiagram Engaging moments of global events The question: Can we capture a Glimmering of Global Consciousness?

3. The technology is only now available Electronics, Computers, Networking REG/RNG devices run continuously Synchronized computers and software Internet transfer of data to central server Automatic archiving, public access Formal analyses and explorations Background, methods, poetic history

4. Homepage Status Day Sum Results Extract Magic Buttons Primary Links Menu at Bottom http://noosphere.princeton.edu Berger: Web Design

5. A Real-Time Display (Bierman)

6. How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random source Each trial is the sum of 200 bits

7. The binomial distribution of 1000 200-bit trials, compared with Theoretical normal distribution expected

8. Composing the data as a Random Walk (A Drunkard’s Walk)

9. Here we see the combined data for a whole day, from 48 eggs

10. We can see better what’s happening by plotting cumulative deviations Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads

11. When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you are all in accord, it becomes. - - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950

12. For most of the formal predictions We specify a “Standard Analysis” Normalized signed deviation of mean, z i = (m i -  )/  Composite across eggs: Stouffer Z s = (  z i )/N 1/2 Composite Z is squared for  2 distributed statistic Large cumulative sum of Z s 2 – 1 or  2 – df Reflects inter-egg correlation, or Consistent large deviations, or both

13. Cumulative sum of    its expectation May show a trend if there is a common Influence or correlation among the eggs

14. Major disasters that engage us powerfully Often correlate with big deviations

15. Context explorations: Six hours of data Around the beginning of bombing in Kosovo Cumulative deviation of Z s 2 or  2

16. The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east: An occasion of hope for resolution of differences

17. Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of interest to the EGG

18. We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations with astrologically determined “hot” times

19. An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zones Cumulative excess deviation of means Weak Replication Model Prediction

20. A major alternative analysis Variance of the scores Sum of z i 2 -1 across eggs is  2 with N df Equivalent to variance  2 of egg scores Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction

21. Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction Reduction of Variance across eggs Odds, GMT

22. Y2K New Years 1999-2000: Prototype Analysis Cumdev of smoothed variance across eggs

23. New Years 2000-2001: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed

24. New Years 2001-2002: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed 5-Min Smoothing Window

25. Repeating events teach us how much we Have to learn, 2001, 2000, 1999 

26. Inspired by the result in 2001 We examine the previous year’s data

27. And the year before that … from which we Learn once again how much we don’t know

28. The destruction of a world treasure Approximate time, noon in Afghanistan

29. The destruction of the World Trade Towers Sept 11 2001 A 50-hour trend followed the attacks

30. Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom

31. More context: Variance trends Sept 10-12 Does the evidence indicate precursor Information -- 4 hours, maybe more?

32. Radin: Odds against chance For variance excursion on Sept 11 The real data vs pseudorandom data Data from EGG networkPseudorandom clone data

33. Shoup: examining a larger context Comparing Sept 11 vs four months of days

34. Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11 Structure where there should be none

35. Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11 MeasureProbability estimateComparison standard Composite deviation0.003Resampling: 400 days Inter-node correlation0.0001Student t: 400 days Device variance peak0.001Permutation: control p = 0.756 Autocorrelation0.000360 control days: p > 0.05 News correlation0.002Student t: 365 days Diurnal variation 0.30Time series: 365 days

36. Bottom line: the full formal database 113 global events over 4 years

37. What do we have in hand? Where do we want to go with it? Four years of data 50 eggs around the world More than 100 formal studies About 65% positive outcome About 20% individually significant Many analyses remain to be done

38. Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration? Refine operation and dissemination Ask good questions, smart and useful Learn whether consciousness “works” Support quest for theoretical picture Teach people about creative mind Convince leaders we are one Contribute to better future for culture

39. We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together? -- Parker Palmer, educator http://noosphere.princeton.edu