1. Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies www.wiiw.ac.at Employment, Education and Occupation Structures: A Framework for Forecasting by Robert Stehrer, wiiw

2. 2 The framework (1) Labour demand: Labour demand growth: Dynamics of labour demand:

3. 3 The framework (2) Sectoral productivity growth > Convergence to technological leader > Exogenous long term growth Output share dynamics > Convergence to EU-15 mean > Exogenous growth rates of shares

4. 4 The framework (3) > Convergence in occupations structures by sectors to EU-15 mean > No convergence in educational structures by occupational categories and sectors

5. 5 Data > OECD STAN database > National accounts data > LFS data

6. 6 Productivity levels in % of EU-15, 2002

7. 7 Output shares, 2002

8. 8 Parameters estimated from large country sample 1975-2002

9. 9 Employment levels (2002=1)

10. 10 Forecasts of changes in employment levels, 2002-2007 and 2007-2012

11. 11 Forecasts of employment levels, 2007 and 2012, Indices 2002=1

12. 12 Employment shares, 1998-2012 Slovenia Czech Republic Poland Romania EU-15 2002

13. 13 Decomposition analysis (1) 1997-2002

14. 14 Decomposition analysis (2) 1997-2002 (per year in % of employment levels 1997)

15. 15 Decomposition analysis (3) 2002-2012 (per year in % of employment levels 2002)

16. 16 Forecasts of changes in employment levels by occupational categories, 2002-2012

17. 17 Forecasts of employment levels by occupations, 2012, Indices 2002=1

18. 18 Forecasts of changes in employment levels by education, 2002-2012

19. 19 Forecasts of employment levels by education, 2012, Indices 2002=1

20. 20 Summary (1) > Heterogenous developments for aggregate employment levels across countries > Structural dynamic patterns are similar; but differences in magnitudes > Demand for BCHS and BCLS is (relatively and absolutely) decreasing > Demand for LE is (relatively and absolutely) decreasing

21. 21 Summary (2) > Productivity catching-up (-) > GDP growth (+) > Structural change effect (+/-); but less important