1. MEASURING RETURN MIGRATION: SOME PRELIMINARY FINDINGS IN TIMES OF CRISIS 1 Jean Christophe Dumont OECD, Head of International Migration Division, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs UNECE, Work session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

2. Outline 1. Defining and measuring return migration 2.The magnitude of return migration 3.Return migration in times of crisis 2

3. Defining and Measuring Return Migration (1/7) What is a returning migrant? Basic definition (adapted from UNSD 1998): persons returning to their country of origin (A) after having lived abroad (B) Time dimension in B: Permanent migration/Temporary migration Visit: not a migration Time dimension in A: Permanent return/Temporary return Visit: not a return Country of origin (and return): Country of birth Country of citizenship Other country of usual residence 3

4. What is a returning migrant? Legal dimension of return: Choosen Assisted Forced Observed return may be part of a longer or more complex migratory process: Back and forth Circular migration (individual level or group level) Secondary migration (actual destination is not the origin country) « Return » of second generation 4 Defining and Measuring Return Migration (2/7)

5. How to estimate return migration? Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas Population registers Continuous monitoring of de jure population (total or foreigners) Includes or may be linked with demographic information Registration at arrival, deregistration at departure  statistics on both inflows and outflows Inconvenients: Registration / deregistration based on prospective duration of stay / absence: people can leave the country and remain in the register Usually, does not include illegal residents Record exits, but often not the precise destination 5 Defining and Measuring Return Migration (3/7)

6. Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas – Border collection Data collected at ports, airports, etc. Entry data usually more complete than exit data Little demographic information Example: International Passenger Survey (UK) – Other administrative sources Residence permits Work permits Deportations Tax or social security data  useful, but partial and count procedures rather than people 6 Defining and Measuring Return Migration (4/7)

7. Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas Detailed questionnaire, demographic and economic information May include questions on migration history of household members, on members abroad (but miss full households abroad) Panel: tracking entries and exits from sample over time Issues: size and stability of sample  longitudinal surveys are useful to understand the causes and consequences of return migration, not that much to count return migrants 7 Defining and Measuring Return Migration (5/7)

8. Indirect measurement of returns to country of origin – Censuses of emigration countries: the 5-year question Country of residence 5 years ago, focus on people born in the country By definition, information on origin and destination Ability to compare return migrants with non-migrants If matched with census in immigration country: ability to add current migrants to the comparison Inconvenient: not easy to find microdata (but things are improving) 8 Defining and Measuring Return Migration (6/7)

9. Indirect measurement of departures from the country of destination – Censuses of immigration countries: the population cell method Comparing the size of a given population between two successive censuses Advantages : exhaustivity, good deal of demographic information Inconvenients: low frequency, time lag, only capture exits (no mention of destination), does not capture complex moves 9 Defining and Measuring Return Migration (7/7)

10. The Magnitude of Return Migration (1/2) Indirect measurement of departures from selected European countries, based on LFS – Challenges: Improvement of the survey over time Variations in non-reponses rates regarding place of birth/duration of stay Concentration of responses about length of stay (at 5 years of residence)  Stocks of cohorts are volatile  must be smoothed to estimate retention rates – Smoothing method: Construction of an envelope around the original cohort 10

11. The Magnitude of Return Migration (2/2) Indirect measurement of departures from selected European countries, based on LFS United Kingdom Denmark Belgium Ireland 11

12. Return Migration in Times of Crisis (1/4) Determinants of return migration (OECD 2008, Part III) – Failure to integrate into the host country and changes the in economic situation of the home country – The Individuals’ preference for their home country – Achievement of savings objective – Greater employment opportunities in their home country  Prevailing economic/labour market conditions in destination countries Uncertain impact of economic crisis – Relative size of the shock (origin vs destination countries) – Effect of the crisis on the possibility to remain – Likelihood to be (re)admitted in the future 12

13. Return Migration in Times of Crisis (2/4) Return migration during past economic crisis – Scarse evidence; mixed results: Germany, oil crisis of the 1970s: most of migrants are reluctant to leave (10/15% of guest workers went back to their home countries) (Dobson, 2009) Europe, economic crisis of the 1970s: family reunification of temporary migrant workers; lower return rates in the 1980s (OECD 2009, Castles 2009) United States, economic crisis of the 1930s: negative net migration; significant returns to Mexico (OECD, 2009) Asian Financial crisis, 1997-99: no repercussions on labour migration outflows in the region (Hugo, 2002) – Issue: identifying the impact of changes in economic conditions on migration outflows while migration policies foster returns/limit entries 13

14. Return Migration in Times of Crisis (3/4) The impact of the recent downturn – Peculiarity of the 2008 economic crisis Severity/quick diffusion/hits sectors where immigrants are concentrated  High returns?  Variations across countries and migrant groups – Propensity to return depends on individual and socioeconomic characteristics of migrants Job stability, ability to save – determines Bolivians migrants to return from Spain (Bastia, 2011) Male labour migrants, 18- to 40-year-old migrants low educated – 1/3 reduction in migration flows from the US to Mexico (Rendall et al., 2011) Outflows differs for EU-12 and non-EU migrants in Europe – Ireland, 2008 : +16.7% in the outflows of non-EU migrants, +57% for EU12 migrants (EHRC and MPI, 2009) 14

15. Return Migration in Times of Crisis (4/4) The impact of the recent downturn Preliminary estimates of re-emigration rates after 5 years of residence in selected European countries (for cohorts entering between 2000-2005) Results to take with caution, in line with re-emigration rates for the period 1993-98 (OECD, 2008, Part III) Little changes in re-emigration rates before/after the crisis Exceptions: Ireland(19%  35%), UK (18%  24%) 15

16. Conclusion The methodology presents limitations but enables to get an updated appraisal of re-emigration Results need to be expanded: – To other non European OECD countries – By migrants groups, notably by country/region of origin 16