1. The Capacity of Hope: Developing a Regional Build-Out Model with GIS Martin Kim, Tom Harner, Kathryn Youra Polk The Capacity of Hope: Developing a Regional Build-Out Model with GIS Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission September 29 - 30, 2011 | Hyatt Regency Hotel | Columbus, Ohio

2. Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission Voluntary association of governmental and non- governmental organizations in the Dayton metropolitan region in southwest Ohio Regional Planning Commission and Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) conducting transportation, land use and environmental planning

3. a region-based land use planning initiative to build a collective vision for the future of land development in the Miami Valley Region

4. Develop Alternative Scenarios through Civic Engagement Conduct a GIS- based Land Holding Capacity Assessment Develop a Preferred Scenario Scenario Planning Framework Given the projected need for future population and job growth in our Region, where would you like to see the Region develop? Land Holding Capacity: A measure of the capacity (theoretical) of suitable areas to accommodate development within the limits defined by existing infrastructure and natural resource capabilities, often expressed in dwelling units, households, number of employees or acres +=

5. METHODOLOGY

6. Basic Holding Capacity Methodology 1.Data acquisition aggregated to study area boundary size 2.Establish constraints to create ‘Net Buildable Area’ 3.Develop density/intensity assumptions 4.Convert net development area into population and employment figures

7. 1.Data acquisition aggregated to study area boundary size 2.Establish constraints to create Net Buildable Area 3.Develop Density/Intensity Assumptions 4.Convert net development area into population and employment figures

8. Study Area Analysis Multiple counties vs. single jurisdiction –Try to get data adjacent to your boundary Size of the Study Area changes the complexity involved

9. Data Needed Land Use Data Parcel data Square footage Developed/Undeveloped/Partially Developed Usage Share Socio-economic Data –Employment Data (Traffic Analysis Zones) Commercial Industrial –Census Data Population People per Household Housing Unit Count

10. Data Inconsistency Issues

11. Consistent boundaries with Blocks –TAZ Level Data aggregated down to Block level – Parcel Level Data aggregated up to Block Level Block 1 P1P2 Block 1 B1 TAZ 1

12. Temporal Data Issues 20002005 CensusTAZ Parcel 2007 Year Data Gathered

13. Classification Issues

14. 1.Data acquisition aggregated to study area boundary size 2.Establish constraints to create Net Buildable Area 3.Create Density/Intensity Assumptions 4.Convert net development area into population and employment figures

15. Remove Unsuitable Lands for Development

16. Issues Establishing Constraint How unsuitable is too unsuitable for development?

17. Is this considered Buildable?

18. Or this?

19. Establish Constraint Solution Identify on the spectrum where your community’s visions match. –If focus is to preserve natural assets, slide higher on the spectrum –If emphasis is on growing, slide lower on the spectrum ?

20. Land Development Suitability Analysis Earlier analysis divided suitability into 4 categories based on constraints Removed lands only marked in most stringent category of “Unsuitable”

21. 1.Data acquisition aggregated to study area boundary size 2.Establish constraints to create Net Buildable Area 3.Develop Density/Intensity Assumptions 4.Convert net development area into population and employment figures

22. Developing Density Assumptions What are your community’s goals? –More Walkability? Higher Density –Larger Lots? Lower Density Large LotsCompact ?

23. Our Density Assumptions Within a Block: –Existing Density Levels would remain constant

24. Our Density Assumptions - Current Land Use Shares would remain constant

25. How is Land Developed on That Which Has No Development?

26. Rural/Urban Development Issues Will rural develop at same rate as urban? How does this incorporate with existing land use?

27. Determining Regional Densities Delineated a boundary between areas with existing water/sewer access (urban) and areas without (rural) Calculate each area’s density average Use these averages as density for areas with no previous development

28. Drawing Density Assumptions Large Lots Compact Rural Average Urban Average

29. How Much Land to Develop? Use historic trending levels to predict rate of non-residential development in rural areas Take rate of change of development from 1975- 2007 and apply the same rate towards how much new land will be developed by 2040.

30. Historical Trends Adjust for error by normalizing the size of the blocks – Percentage of development over area of total block

31. 1.Data acquisition aggregated to study area boundary size 2.Establish constraints to create Net Buildable Area 3.Develop Density/Intensity Assumptions 4.Convert net development area into population and employment figures

32. Converting Acreage to People Buildable Res Acres x Housing Units/Acre x Population per HouseHold x Residential Vacancy Rate = Maximum # of People in Area

33. Convert Acreage to Jobs Buildable Non-Res Acres x FAR/Acre x Jobs/Acre x Non-Residential Vacancy Rate = Maximum # of Jobs in Area

34. Where can we get Vacancy Rate for: Census data: subtract occupied housing units (Households) from total number of housing units (Housing Units) Residential?

35. Where can we get Vacancy Rate for: Used local market study (Gem Real Estate) and applied to sub regions within the study boundary Non-Residential?

36. Post Analysis: Other Items to Consider What is proper amount of land for future infrastructure, schools, police, etc.? –Sources recommend anywhere from 10- 30% of available land for public use

37. Questions?