1. Seasonal Outlook Long Range Forecast
Krissy Scotten NWS AMARILLO

2. Climate Data Outlets National Weather Service Amarillo
U.S. Drought Monitor
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

3. Amarillo
26.32 in (+7.22)/3 in. Snow
Borger
16.75 in. (-4.53)/3 in. Snow
Dalhart
15.59 in. (-2.44)/Trace Snow
Guymon, OK
14.79 in. (-1.78)/0.0 Snow

8. Amarillo 2011 Climate Stats
Currently the warmest year on record (63.6° F)
Currently the driest year on record (4.84 inches inches below normal)
Record for most number of 100-degree days in a calendar year (50)
Record for most number of 90-degree days in a calendar year (107)
Record for most consecutive 90-degree days (50)
July was the warmest month ever on record (85.2° F)
Warmest July (85.2° F) and August (85.1° F) on record

10. Climate Reports
Amarillo, TX
Borger, TX
Dalhart, TX
Guymon, OK

12. Texas and Oklahoma Supplemental Observations (AGO and OSO)

13. Climate Prediction Center
6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Temperature and Precipitation Maps
30-Day and 90-Day Seasonal Outlooks for Temperatures and Precipitation
Information on El Niño and La Niña

14. Drought Information

15. http://www. cpc. ncep. noaa

16. El Niño, La Niña, and Everything In Between
What exactly do they mean? How will it affect you?

18. The Facts
El Niño and La Niña episodes typically occur every 3-5 years. However, in the historical record this interval has varied from 2 to 7 years.
El Niño typically lasts 9-12 months, and La Niña typically lasts 1-3 years.
They both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity between December and April, and then weaken May-July.

19. The Basic Differences
El Niño and La Niña represent opposite extremes in the naturally occurring climate cycle
The two have opposite extremes in sea surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, atmospheric circulation, and departures in the tropics from Indonesia to South America (approximately ½ the distance around the globe).

20. EL NIÑO Easterly winds weaken
Water temperatures and depth of warm water increase
Tropical rainfall increases

21. LA NIÑA Easterly winds strengthen
Water temperatures and depth of cold water decrease
Tropical rains shift westward

22. EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA
Individual storms or events CANNOT be blamed on La Niña or El Niño!
Rather, these climate extremes affect the position and intensity of the jet streams and the normal regions of high and low pressure, which in turn affect the average intensity and track of storms.

23. Jet Stream Position

24. Effects on Texas LA NIÑA EL NIÑO Warmer and drier
Cooler and wetter
Jet Stream farther south
Snowier than normal
LA NIÑA
Warmer and drier
Jet Stream farther north
Drought and fires common

25. Current ENSO Forecast La Niña Advisory is in Effect!
La Niña conditions are expected to gradually strengthen and continue through the winter.
El Niño conditions (cool and wet for Texas Panhandle) have less than a 2% chance of developing.

26. 1-Month Temperature Outlook

27. 1-Month Precipitation Outlook

28. 3-Month Temperature Outlook

29. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook

30. **Amarillo Normal: 17.9”** Average La Niña Years: 13.4”
Snow in La Niña Years ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ”
1999 – 23” ” ” ” ”
**Amarillo Normal: 17.9”**
Average La Niña Years: 13.4”

31. Tornadoes in La Niña Years
**Forecast Area Normal: 21**
Average La Niña Years: 16.5

32. Climate Normals for Amarillo
Average Temperature
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual 37
40.3
47.9
56.3
65.6
74.4
78.3
76.8
69.5
58.3
46.3
36.9
57.4
35.8
40.6
56.2
65.2
74.3
78.2
76.3
69.1
58.2
45.1 57
Average Max Temperature
50.6
54.2
62.5
71.1
79.5
87.7
91.4
89.4
82.6
71.9 60
49.7 71
48.9
54.1
62.2
70.6
78.6
87.4 91
88.7
81.8
71.8
58.4
49.8
70.3
Average Min Temperature
23.4
26.4
33.3
41.6
51.8 61
64.2
56.4
44.7
32.5 24
43.8
22.6 27
33.6
41.7
51.7
61.1
65.3
63.8
44.6
31.8
24.1
43.6
Precipitation
0.72
0.56
1.39
1.4
2.29
3.16
2.84
2.91
1.92
1.66
0.8
0.71
20.36
0.63
0.55
1.13
1.33
2.5
3.28
2.68
2.94
1.88
1.5
0.68
0.61
19.71
Snow
4.7
2.9
0.7
0.2
3.7
17.8
4.8
4.1
1.7
0.4
2.4
17.9

33. Long Range Texas Forecast
Warmer and drier conditions continuing???
Increased fire threat?
Continuation of significant drought conditions?
YES!

34. Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.
ANY QUESTIONS?
Krissy Scotten
(806)