1. National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service Coordination Hydrologist

2. Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center 90-Day Observed Precipitation

3. Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center 90-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

4. Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center 180-Day Observed Precipitation

5. Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center 180-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation

6. Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center Year to Date Observed Precipitation As of 10/23/14

7. Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center Year to Date Percent of Normal Precipitation

8. Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center Year to Date Departure from Normal Precipitation (-8” to -12”)

12. Slightly Warm Sea Surface Temps

13. The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts a weak El Niño starting during November and lasting through mid 2015.

17. Climate Prediction Center Three Month Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks

18. El Nino Events of the Past

19. ABRFC website: www.weather.gov/abrfc

22. National Weather Service Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Drought Briefing 10/24/2014 Jeff McMurphy Senior Hydrologist – ABRFC James Paul Service Coordination Hydrologist