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2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Solar Sources of Geoeffective Disturbances N. Gopalswamy NASA/GSFC Greenbelt, MD 20771.

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Presentation on theme: "2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Solar Sources of Geoeffective Disturbances N. Gopalswamy NASA/GSFC Greenbelt, MD 20771."— Presentation transcript:

1 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Solar Sources of Geoeffective Disturbances N. Gopalswamy NASA/GSFC Greenbelt, MD 20771

2 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Geoeffectiveness Ability to significantly disturb geospace Dst < -50 SEP Ip > 10 pfu in the 10 MeV channel Arrival of plasmas, particles and electromagnetic radiation decide the lead times available Narrow down the solar events for space weather forecast purposes

3 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Geoeffective Solar Events Coronal Mass Ejections (severe geomagnetic storms, SEP events): most unpredictable High-speed Streams (mild, but numerous geomagnetic storms) Flares (prompt effects such as SID)

4 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing What In situ Observations tell us? CMEs bring strong magnetic fields Number of MCs ~ number of storms with Dst < -100 nT All IP shocks are CME- driven (ESP, SSC) Earth in CME related flows for about a third of the time during solar max Gopalswamy et al., 2004 Adv. Space Res.

5 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing TRANSIENT Flows at Earth 2 shock + sheath 3 shock+Sheath+MC 4 MC Only (slow) 1 Shock only Earth is embedded within one or the other of the above CME-related flows for ~ 35% Time during solar maxima and ~ 10% of the time during solar minima (Cliver et al. 2003)

6 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Solar Wind Magnetic Field 1997 02 07 CME 02040 B nT 5 Luhmann et al. 1999 (schematic) % OCCURRENCE Wind Mag Clouds 1996-2003

7 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Solar Sources of ICMEs Only shock Shock + ICME Interacting with Preceding CMEs Sources of IP shocks Manoharan et al. 2004 JGR Close to Disk Center (±30deg); Slight westward bias (Wang et al; Zhang et al)

8 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing CMEs REACHING THE HELIOSPHERE UlyssesLASCO HLLASCO LL1 AU 810160225 8%4% (8%) w/o Backsided CMEs ~ a tenth of the CMEs produced at the Sun seem to reach far into the heliosphere These are the ones that survive for long distances from the Sun July 10 2000 – February 5, 2001 (7 months); Ulysses poleward of S60

9 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Special Populations (1-2)% Only a small fraction of all CMEs has significant influence on the heliosphere Halo CMEs – responsible for large geomagnetic storms Fast and wide CMEs responsible for accelerating electrons (radio bursts) and SEPs Fast & Wide Western CMEs produce high levels of SEP intensity at Earth

10 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Halos are similar to other CMEs:Wait for STEREO

11 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Halo CMEs Full halos (F) Asymmetric Halo (A) Partial halo (P) The faint extension on the opposite limb may be the CME- driven shock

12 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Halo CMEs are Faster on the Average Halo CMEs have an average speed of 1000 km/s Likely to be geoeffective if Earth- directed and posses southward B Likely to accelerate SEPs by driving shocks

13 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Fast and wide… (47 deg non-halo)

14 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Metric Type II IP Type II

15 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Speed, Width & Acceleration of DH CMEs = 1122 km/s = 104 deg = -6 m/s/s - CMEs driving shocks in the near-Sun IP medium are faster and wider than regular CMEs - Tend to decelerate, probably due to coronal drag. (Gopalswamy et al., 2001 JGR )

16 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing CME Mass is also much higher 5.0x10 15 1.6x10 16 1.5x10 16 ~ 1.5x10 15 g for all CMEs (Vourlidas 2004)

17 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing DH type II, FWFW, SEPs Overall good correlation because of physical relation (CME  shock  particles) DH is largest in number (Eastern Events included) Minor differences due to other parameters like Alfven speed Too many flares

18 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Problem Areas Halo CMEs without Geomagnetic Storms (Proper characterization; orientation of the magnetic field?) Fast and wide CMEs without particle acceleration (property of the ambient medium?) Use radio data (All large SEP events are associated with IP type II)

19 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing Working Group: Solar Sources of Geomagnetic Activity Main Topics 1. Solar sources: Coronal Mass Ejections, Coronal Holes, Large-scale Magnetic structures and boundaries, Polar magnetic fields 2. Structure of the heliosphere and interplanetary transport of solar eruptions 3. Solar energetic ions and electrons 4. Geospace response to solar events The Project Team N. Gopalswamy (USA, Chair) B. V. Jackson (USA) V. Obridko (Russia) A. Prigancova (Slovakia) B. Schmieder (France) K. Shibasaki (Japan) D. Webb (USA, IAU Rep. ) S. T. Wu (USA) M. Kojima (Japan) M. Zhang (China) …. Objectives To understand how solar events such as CMEs and high speed streams impact the geospace - investigation of the underlying science - development of prediction/forecast models and necessary tools Meetings Preliminary meeting in China (before IAU Symposium Sep11-12 2004) Large meeting in 2005 (during the SCOSTEP Symposium) WG formed during the ISCS meeting in Slovakia, June 2003

20 2004 September 11CAWSES Theme 2 Meeting, Beijing CAWSES Campaign (March 29-April 4, 2004) Participants – Solar SOHO/LASCO (N. Gopalswamy) HeI 10830 (J. Burkepile) H-alpha (B. Schmieder, Haimin Wang) ISOON (D. Neidig) Microwave (Shibasaki) IPS (Manoharan, Tokumaru) SXI (D. Biesecker) Metric (M. Akioka) Decametric (M. Kaiser, N. Gopalswamy) CME listCME list (11 CMEs) Flares http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CAWSES What Next?

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