1. WWRP Implementation Plan for the WWRP Polar Prediction Project Thomas Jung, Steering Group Chair Neil Gordon, WMO Consultant November 2011 1

2. WWRP Outline  Short overview: existing draft  Key project objectives  Agreement on overall structure and chapters 2

3. WWRP Existing draft  Introduction  Mission statement  Benefits  Research plan goals  Strategies to achieve goals  Major campaigns  Governance and management  Financial plan  Implementation schedule  Contributing institutions and organisations  References  Abbreviations  Annexes 3

4. WWRP Introduction  Motivation of the project  Increasing importance of the polar regions  Prediction capabilities required  Background and history  IPY and IPY legacy  Oslo workshop(s)  EC-PORS and GIPPS  Now we motivate the structure of the remaining plan  Project vision including key objectives and benefits  Primary research goals to achieve the vision  Strategies for achieving the goals 4

5. WWRP Mission statement  Statement of the key objectives 5 To be discussed later!

6. WWRP Benefits  Highlight the benefits of the project  Who would be the beneficiaries?  What will the benefits be? (see also GIPPS)  Highlight that further research is necessary throughout the 10-year period (see research goals and strategy) 6

7. WWRP Research goals: Detailed  SERA: Research and document user requirements and benefits of improved polar predictions  Verification: Establish and monitor verification metrics  Predictability and forecast error diagnosis (especially on longer time scales)  Lower-latitude impacts: Identify lower-latitude implications of forecast errors in polar regions  Physical and dynamical processes: Improve coupled modelling in polar regions  Ensemble forecasting: Representation of initial and model uncertainty  Data assimilation: Improve initialization strategies  Observations: Assess and promote required observational improvements/carry out field campaigns 7

8. WWRP Strategies to achieve goals  Enhance international collaboration: Discuss fundamental need of collaborative efforts  Strengthen linkages between academia, research institutions and operational centres  Establish and exploit special research data sets: TIGGE, YOTC, reforecasts etc.  Promote interaction between research and stakeholders: stakeholder identification, engagement strategy etc.  Linkages with other initiatives: WCRP, EC-PORS etc.  Foster education efforts 8

9. WWRP Major campaigns  Do we need such a special section?  One could argue that this is part of the observations part of the Research Plan Goals section  One could make this more wider in focus, though (e.g YOTC-like). Could still be moved 9

10. WWRP Governance and Management  Governance linkages with WCRP, EC-PORS, THORPEX ICSC, WWRP JSC  How will the steering group operate?  Monitoring, review and evaluation  Stakeholder engagement  Establishment and hosting of a project office  Website  Terms of reference 10

11. WWRP Funding  Funding for overall project management  Funding for research programme activities 11

12. WWRP Implementation schedule  Extending over 10 years including milestones  Example of a milestone: mid-term review after 5 years. 12

13. WWRP Other sections  Contributing institutions and organizations  References  Abbreviations  Annexes 13

14. WWRP 14

15. WWRP Key project objectives  Draft plan: “Significantly improved weather and environmental predictions in polar regions, on time scales from hours to months”  Improved prediction is central (user focused)  Top-down approach (funding agencies)  ICSC-9 document: “Provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions”  Another Option: Mentioning GIPPS explicitly (“Contribute to the development of the Global Integrated…”)  We could think of a combination of two 15

16. WWRP Agreement on overall structure and chapters 16

17. WWRP Thank you! 17

18. WWRP Research goals  Improved understanding of user requirements?  Includes research into the communication of predictions (+uncertainty)  Establishing the status quo: How good are we?  Verification and reforecasts  Determining the limits: Especially for sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts  Potential predictability studies  Determining the gaps  Determine gap between potential and actual skill  Obvious gaps (e.g. lack of observations)  Objective techniques (origins of forecast error)  Filling the gaps 18

19. WWRP What is an Implementation Plan?  An implementation plan helps selling a project  An implementation plan is a tool for efficient  management of a project and  monitoring of progress  An implementation plan describes how a project will be delivered  on time,  on budget, and  on expectations  Here our task will be to write an implementation plan for the coming 10 years. 19

20. WWRP What it should/could incorporate  Clear statement of the goals of the WWRP-PPP  Benefits resulting from achieving these goals  Detailed plan how the goals will be achieved including  Deliverables and milestones,  An implementation schedule  Resource management  Funding  Risk management  Stakeholder engagement  Governance and accountability  Review, monitoring and evaluation  Additional information 20

21. WWRP Defining the goals  Could be formulated in terms of a project vision  A good vision statement  Written in present tense (description of desired future)  Is short, concise and memorable  Can be understood by stakeholders  Vision statement must reflect  The key objectives  The underlying need or problem  Context including approvals to date (e.g. decisions by governing bodies) 21

22. WWRP Benefits  Describe intended beneficiaries for each of the objectives  Benefits expected by specific objectives/deliverables  Monitoring and delivery of benefits  Benefits should be  Specific  Measurable  Achievable  Relevant  Time framed  Agreed 22

23. WWRP Deliverables  List of all products and services to be delivered  For each deliverable  List milestones that need to be achieved  A milestone is an important check-point  Resources needed to achieve each deliverable  Explain what activities will be undertaken to deliver the project  Identify related activities (e.g. within CLIVAR)  What is done in the framework of the WWRP-PPP and what is done elsewhere?  Provide implementation schedule  What will be delivered when? 23

24. WWRP Resource management  Managing resources is an issue since there is little control over resources (human and monetary)  Required expertise (e.g. steering group)  Budget/funding 24

25. WWRP Risk management  Plan for and deal with uncertainty  Risk is an uncertain event that will have an influence on the achievements of project goals  Risk identification  Changing circumstances  Changes to the scope of the projects  Discussion with stakeholders  Risk planning  Development of a risk management plan 25

26. WWRP Stakeholder engagement  Identifying and communicating effectively with those people or groups who have an influence or interest in the outcome of the project  Development of a Stakeholder Engagement Strategy  Stakeholder identification  Development of a Stakeholder engagement and communication plan 26

27. WWRP Review, monitoring and evaluation  Review of progress at regular time intervals  Review conducted by WWRP-PPP steering group  Progress reports are presented to various committees. 27

28. WWRP Writing of the Implementation Plan: Time table  November 2011: Work on the skeleton of the IP  Kick-off meeting:  Discussion of the structure of the IP  Identification of key topics  Identification of lead authors  Agreement on deadlines  Winter 2011/12: Writing of the IP  Spring and summer 2012: Presentation to various committees  Autumn 2012: Establishment of a project office 28