1. 1.To develop realistic numerical simulation models 2.To foster collaboration 3.To foster development of infrastructure & programs Develop a unified simulation model for earthquake generation and earthquake cycles The ACES international cooperation: advances and challenges By Peter Mora

2. Acknowledgements ACES was established under the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) sponsored by Australia, China, Japan and USA Australia: ISR and ARC China:MOST, NSFC and CSB Japan:RIST and JSPS USA:NASA &NSF (3-rd workshop sponsors) Thanks to US LOC for organisation of 3-rd WS

3. The scientific challenge Science involves the feedback between a predictive theory and observations Such a theory does not exist for earthquakes Such a theory does not exist for earthquakes The earth is a complex system The earth is a complex system WHY? nonlinear elements + interactions = cooperative behaviour qualitatively different from elements Observns Model Analysis Observations Theory

4. Simulation A powerful tool to fuel breakthroughs Observn’s Model Analysis Computational Virtual earth laboratory

5. History & program of activities 1994Discussions 1995AESF Proposal 1996NSPE Proposal 1997 ACES Proposal endorsed 1998 Planning meeting 1999Workshop (AUS) 2000WG Mtg & Workshop (JPN) + Visitors 2001WG Mtg (USA) 2002Workshop (USA) 2004WG Mtg (AUS) 2004Workshop (CHINA)

6. Selected collaborative projects 2000 Australia/Japan Fault zone evolution LSMearth/GeoFEM interface Australia/USA Fault constitutive laws/rate-state friction Strong motion/teleseismic obs Australia/China Mesoscopic mechanism for catastrophic rupture Physical mechanism for LURR Probe relation CP/LURR and critical scaling

7. Infrastructure developments Japan Earth Simulator – 40 Tflops (1997-2002) GeoFEM macro-scale software system Australia Solid Earth Simulator – 200 Gflops (2000-2002) LSMearth micro-scale software system ACcESS MNRF – 2 Tflops (2002-2007) ESS multi-scale software system

8. A few selected advances and highlights from ACES and its participants

9. Japan: Earth Simulator Project MEXT (STA), 1997-2001 F/Y Objectives Forecast earth dynamics by "Virtual Earth" Enhance information science & technology Development of Parallel computer “Earth Simulator” Advanced software Fluid earth : ocean-atmosphere dynamics Solid earth : crust-mantle-core dynamics

10. Inside of the Earth Simulator Building http://www.es.jamstec.go.jp - 640 nodes ( 8 vector processors / node ) - single-stage crossbar network - max 16 Gbytes/sec x 2

11. Courtesy of Mitsuhiro Matsu’ura

12. “Solid Earth” simulator  Global scale （ 10 4 km, 10 6 ～ 10 8 y ）  Mantle/Core Dynamics and Interaction  Interior Earth Structure  Regional scale （ 10 3 km, 10 3 ～ 10 4 y ）  Quasi-Static Earthquake Generation Cycle  Dynamic Rupture  GPS Tectonic Data Assimilation  Local scale （ 10 km, 10 2 s ）  Earthquake Generation  Seismic Wave Propagation

13. Visualization data GPPView One-domain mesh PEs Partitioner 構造計算（ Static linear ） 構造計算（ Dynamic linear ） 構造計算（ Contact ） Partitioned mesh Solver I/F Comm. I/F Vis. I/F Utilities Structure Fluid Wave Pluggable Analysis Modules Equation solvers Visualizer Parallel I/O Platfor m System Configuration of GeoFEM Courtesy of Hiroshi Okuda

14. Geodynamo Entire meshEarth’s interior 64 domains P isosurface Magnetic force lines Electrically conductive fluid in Earth's outer core Enlarged view Courtesy of Matsui & Okuda

15. Modeling of South West Japan x y z FE model of Philippine Sea Plate and Pacific Ocean Plate Shikoku Izu Philippine Sea Plate Pacific Ocean Plate Mantle Courtesy of Iizuka and Hirahara

16. Long-term Crustal Deformation Caused by Steady Plate Subduction (a) 3-D geometry of plate interfaces(b) Computed crustal uplift rates Courtesy of Hashimoto and Matsu’ura

17. (a) Quasi-static stress accumulation (b) Dynamic rupture propagation 0 Shear Stress (MPa) 3 0 Slip Deficits (m) 2 Shear Stress Slip Deficits Shear Stress Fault Slip Shear Stress (MPa) Fault Slip (m) 3-D Simulation of Earthquake Generation Cycles at a Plate Boundary Courtesy of Fukuyama and Matsu’ura

18. 3-D Simulation of Strong Ground Motion in the 1995 Kobe Earthquake Seismic wave radiation Strong ground motion belts Rupture initiation Seismic wave propagation Courtesy of Furumura and Koketsu

19. Australia QUAKES to ACcESS LSMearth micro-model Object oriented “plug-and-play” system New virtual environment for micro-model Courtesy of David Place and Peter Mora

20. Physics of fault zones Localisation phenomena From Place & Mora, 2000 PAGEOPH, 157, 1821-1845.

21. Fault constitutive relation Australia/USA QUAKES/USGS From Abe, Dieterich, Mora and Place, 2002, PAGEOPH, 159, No. 10

22. Multi-scale simulator development LSMearth to GeoFEM & EFG (Australia-Japan: QUAKES/RIST/Yokohama/Tokyo U) Courtesy of David Place

23. The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS) Major National Research Facility A multi-scale multi-physics ESS Achieve a holistic virtual earth simulation capability Provide a computational virtual earth serving Australia’s national needs Empower Australian geosciences with a never before seen computational capacity Act as a focal point for Earth Systems Simulation Centre for Computational Earth Systems Simulation http://www.access.edu.au

24. Multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary Queensland (MNRF HQ) Micro-models, LSMearth software Comp. ES, earthquakes QUAKES Western Australia Nonlinear rheologies, geodynamics Comp. mech, mining, Solid Mech, CSIRO; UWA Victoria ACRC/Mon, VPAC, Melb, RMIT Geology, tectonics reconstruction Min. exploration, SE/Vis/IT Particle Models … Communication Substrate Continuum Models Data Assimilation Post Processing Visualisation Observ’s Theory Computational Virtual earth laboratory

25. Facility development Particle Models … Communication Substrate Continuum Models Data Assimilation Post Processing Visualisation Usable software platform Powerful extendable models Development of software & models and establishment of thematic supercomputer needed for research outcomes.

26. Objectives Novel multi-scale simulation methodology: Macro-models: Mountains, folding, faulting Chemical processes: Mineralisation Micro-models: Localisation, fracture, friction Virtual earth reconstructions for exploration Stress field reconstruction Broad range of applicability: Global scale minerals exploration Geohazards mitigation and forecasting Mining excavation stability and safety Virtual prototyping in mining Courtesy of/by (top to bottom & L to R): Moresi and Muhlhaus, Mora & Place, Moresi, Sakaguchi, Coutel & Mora

27. USA Courtesy of Kim Olsen

28. Strong ground motion in LA basin Courtesy of Kim Olsen

29. Pattern Recognition Techniques Show Promise for Earthquake Forecasting Courtesy of Kristy Tiampo and John Rundle Red regions indicate anomalies detected through Principal Component Analysis. Blue triangles and circles are earthquakes Recent earthquakes have occurred in the anomalous regions.

30. Analysis of observations indicates strong correlations Courtesy of Kristy Tiampo & John Rundle

31. Australia Correlation function evolution in simulations Time From Mora and Place, 2002, PAGEOPH, 159, No. 10

32. China Critical sensitivity Courtesy of Mengfen Xia

33. China/Australia: Load-unload response ratio c.f. AMR 1960 1970 1980 1990 AMR observations Predicted CP Newcastle earthquake 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 Benioff strain (x 10 7 ) Newcastle Earthquake time LURR value 5432154321 1980 1985 1990 From Yin and Mora et al, 2002, PAGEOPH, 159, No. 10

34. LURR vs AMR critical region size (CH/AU … USA) Courtesy of Can Yin (left) and Xiang-chu Yin (right)

35. Simulation of intact material (AU/CH) From Mora & Wang et al, 2002, PAGEOPH, 159, No. 10

36. Exploring system complexity with CA (AU/US/CH) Courtesy of Dion Weatherley

37. USA Simulation of the CA interacting fault system Southern California SeismicitySpace-time Stress Diagram Courtesy of P.B. Rundle and J.B. Rundle

38. A Comparison at C-Band: InSAR Difference Fringes Tend to Define the Rupture Extent Courtesy of John Rundle and Louise Kellogg The difference fringes are small (red = positive and blue = negative regions), and are concentrated along the portions of the San Andreas that are about to initiate sliding, either in the main shock or the pre- and post-shocks.

39. Challenges Understanding the complex system Computer speed limited to explore complex system dynamics Computational models need to be enhanced Software effort needs to be increased Data assimilation effort is large Cooperation needs to be enhanced

40. ACES: Towards predictive modelling of earthquake phenomena - a new era of earthquake science

41. A vision future earth systems science Advances in understanding earth physics, numerical simulation methodology & supercomputer technology are bringing the vision within reach A predictive capability for earth system dynamics Observns Model Analysis Computational Virtual earth laboratory c.f. GCM’s

42. The end Acknowledgements Contributors (incomplete list) Rundle, Donnellan, Tiampo, Olsen, GEM & SCEC Place, Mora, Weatherley, Abe, Wang, Yin, Muhlhaus, Moresi Matsu’ura, Okuda, Nakajima, Matsui, RIST group Yin, Peng, Xia, CSB/LNM Group