1. Slide 1 Use of Satellites for Risk Management Presentation to WGISS-32 Budapest, 27 September, 2011 Dr. Guy Séguin (CSA) Co-leader, GEO Task DI-06-09 CEOS Disaster SBA Coordinator Andrew Eddy CEOS Disaster SBA Team Secretary

2. Slide 2 2 Outline Background Objectives Disaster Cycle Phase-by-Phase Approach Methodology Example – Floods Issues

3. Slide 3 Background GEO Workplan 2009-11 includes task to address “Use of satellites for risk management”: DI-06-09 DI-06-09 to address all four phases of disaster management: mitigation, warning, response and recovery and to examine user requirements and system architecture for a global multi-hazard approach UN-SPIDER recognizes the critical importance of compiling user requirements, and can serve as a bridge between space and disaster management communities

4. Slide 4 4 Objectives Help space community understand specific needs of disaster management community, as well as operational mechanisms and interactions (local, provincial and national) Collect information on needs of users to establish requirements Establish requirements for ‘virtual constellation’ of satellites to address each phase of disasters, working through existing bodies such as International Charter and CEOS

5. Slide 5 5 Disaster Cycle

6. Slide 6 6 Tailored Solutions for Each Phase For Response, broaden International Charter by inviting GEO Member states to designate authorized users; encourage new Charter membership For Mitigation/Warning/Recovery, use pilot project approach with selection of regional champions that can integrate satellite data; organize volunteer contributions on mission-by- mission basis; define global “baseline” imaging scenario

7. Slide 7 Work to date System Architecture Group (CSA Chair ) Participants from ASI, CSA, DLR, ESA, NASA, UN- SPIDER, International Charter, GEO Secretariat, Athena Global User Requirements Group, in conjunction with UN-SPIDER (UNOOSA Chair) 25 participants from range of civil defense organizations, international organizations (ISDR, UN- OCHA, CDERA, ADPC), space agencies and private sector – presentations to broader conference and validation of results (80 people)

8. Slide 8 Outcomes to Date Produced user requirements report for multi-hazard disaster management (floods, windstorms, earthquakes, landslides, wildfires and drought) for all phases Buy-in to process from large representative user body (including civil defense, international organizations) Commitment from space agencies to provide support to modeling scenarios, and to work towards solution in context of CEOS Agreement in Principle with International Charter: Mechanisms for broadening of Authorized User community (those that activate the Charter during response) or equivalent mechanism to include all GEO Member States Advice sought on how to better access archived data to support other phases (beyond response)

9. Slide 9 What did we do? Part 1, User requirements… Establish user requirements (for each disaster type and phase): Identify region of interest (priority areas) Identify target characteristics (what do we want to see?) Identify temporal revisit period Establish timeliness/latency requirements Identify end use for data by intermediate user (application, service, etc)

10. Slide 10 Establish architecture requirements (for each disaster type and phase): What type of satellite data? (SAR, optical, altimetry, etc) Number of satellites and coverage mode? Ground segment Application Roll-up across all disaster types to establish overall requirements of virtual constellation Simulate architecture options What did we do? Part 2, Architecture options…

11. Slide 11 ©The World Bank – Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis Example – Floods Starting Point – World Bank Risk Analysis

12. Slide 12 User Requirements Roll-up – Floods Phase Requirements MitigationWarningResponseRecovery Target/data Topography Hydrological models Historical atlas of floods Flood models/simulations New infrastructure, houses Land-use classification Monitoring of dikes and dams Precipitation Water level (rivers, lakes) Weather forecast Soil moisture Snow-water equivalent Signs of catastrophic infra failure Water level (rivers, lakes) Extent of flood Status of critical infrastructure Weather forecast Status of critical infrastructure Damage assessment Flooded areas Revisit 1 to 3 years (imagery) 5 to 10 yrs (topography) Daily or better during high risk period Daily in early morning; twice daily if possible Weekly (major floods) for several weeks to several months Timeliness WeeksHoursHours (2-4 max)1 day End use Integration in land use planning/zoning Baseline for response Decision support for warnings & evacuation Situational awareness Resource allocation support Initial damage assessment Tracking affected assets Charting progress

13. Slide 13 Architecture Requirements – Floods (I) Phase Requirements MitigationWarningResponseRecovery Data typeLow res DEM for flow rates (radar, stereo, laser) Higher res DEM (DTED-2 or better) for extent and location (radar, stereo, laser)_ Medium to high res (scale, other image sources, urban/rural) Optical or radar overlay (geo- coded, ortho-rect.) Archived imagery of previous floods Interferometric analysis of subsidence (and other changes) Met sats Precipitation radar X, C or L-band SAR 10-50m data Passive microwave (for soil moisture) Hi res optical upstream for slow flood Altimeters Interferometric analysis of subsidence (and other changes) Precipitation radar X, C or L-band SAR 10-50m data (extent of flood – large areas) ; higher res radar and optical for urban areas or flash floods (damage) Met Altimeters Med to high res optical and radar Interferomet ric coherent change maps Coverage and revisit Continuity of existing optical and radar missions (need to develop background mission coverage in areas on flood map) Daily coverage in regional areas affected Pre-dawn or dawn required Daily early morning coverage in regional areas affected Continuity of existing optical and radar missions

14. Slide 14 Architecture Requirements – Floods (II) Phase Requirements MitigationWarningResponseRecovery Potential data source SRTM (background) SRTM DTED-2, Tandem-X DTED-3, Cosmo, etc…. GPM 3-4 radar satellites on same orbit; 2-3 satellites using same frequency in same orbits Optical: comparable? 3-6 radar satellites on same orbit Optical hi res (2 or more) 2 radar satellites using same frequency Optical hi res (1) Ground segment (need for development) Using existing ground segmentsFast download, fast tasking (northern/southern stations, geostationary com links) Very fast download and tasking (northern/southern stations, geostationary com links) Using existing ground segments ApplicationIntegration with risk map Land cover maps Information used for bulletins and evacuation, warnings Situational awareness products Tracking affected assets

15. Slide 15 Gap Analysis Key measurements and key measurement parameters identified by Disaster SBA Team using architecture analysis Gaps being identified now for floods Flood analysis will be presented to CEOS and planning for other disaster types to included in new GEO Workplan implementation

16. Slide 16 Disasters SBA Team Instrument Type Rqmts

17. Slide 17 Preliminary Instrument Types Analysis http://ceos-sysdb.com/CEOS/db_includes/sp_flood.php Mini-database of instruments that are of the 4 instrument types Need to eliminate ones that have already flown

18. Slide 18 Preliminary Instrument Types Analysis, cont’d http://ceos- sysdb.com/CEOS/db_includes/sp_flood_instr_timeline.phphttp://ceos- sysdb.com/CEOS/db_includes/sp_flood_instr_timeline.php Timeline analysis by Instrument Type depicts preliminary gaps Click on number to see a list of those instruments Then click on instrument for all the details Need to add spatial resolution and repeat cycle to the lists Draft only: incorrect data!

19. Slide 19 Preliminary Instrument Types Analysis, High Res Optical Imagers After considering the revisit requirements, there are gaps for this instrument type Need to account for spatial resolution Only considers those instruments in the DB with a repeat cycle number; if it was blank it was not considered. Results not completely accurate Draft only: incorrect data!

20. Slide 20 Preliminary Measurement Analysis Soil moisture at the surface Precipitation Vegetation cover Snow cover Snow water equivalent Draft only: incorrect data!

21. Slide 21 Example of one day coverage of selected satellites (Envisat, ERS-2, RADARSAT-1 and ALOS) Issues Insufficient frequency of observations of various satellite types (radar, optical, altimeters, etc) Harmonization of platforms

22. Slide 22 Next Steps Within CEOS context, ensure contributions from space agencies towards pilot projects Identify champions within each disaster community of practice and choose regional pilot projects to demonstrate the effectiveness of satellite imagery for full cycle management Two NASA-led pilots up and running: CSDP and Namibia Flood and Health Pilot Joint workshop proposed to WGISS on disasters architecture Disaster SBA Team to plan roadmap for new GEO workplan 2012-2015 implementation