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THE WORLD BANK: REGIME-TYPE AND EMERGENCY AID DISBURSEMENT By: Ashwin Puri and Zackary Abu-Akeel
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PREMISE Does the regime-type of a country effect foreign aid disbursement by The World Bank in emergency crises? Does the regime-type of a country effect foreign aid disbursement by The World Bank in emergency crises?
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X AND Y X: Regime-Type of Country Y: Frequency of Foreign Aid During Emergency Crises
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HYPOTHESIS If a country is a democracy (regime-type), then in emergency crises they will receive foreign aid by The World Bank more frequently than an Autocracy. If a country is a democracy (regime-type), then in emergency crises they will receive foreign aid by The World Bank more frequently than an Autocracy.
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LITERATURE REVIEW Alejandro Quiroz Flores and Alastair Smith: Leader Survival and Natural Disasters Disasters have a minimal effect on the stability of democracies Large effect on the stability of autocracies How does foreign aid factor in?
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REGIME-TYPE DATA Obtained from Adam Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, Fernando Limongi, used in : Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990 Obtained from Adam Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub, Fernando Limongi, used in Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990 Regime-Type is measured by Contestation in Democratic Elections: Ex-ante Uncertainty: Probability that one member of incumbent party will lose election Ex-post Irreversibility: Assurance that winner will assume office Repeatability: Continued elections must occur; winner must not make future elections impossible
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EMERGENCY CRISES DATA Obtained from EM-DAT: The International Disaster Database Consists of all determined disasters from 1900-2014 Ten (10) or more people reported killed. Hundred (100) or more people reported affected. Declaration of a state of emergency. Call for international assistance. A “Disaster” is determined by one or more of the following: Ten (10) or more people reported killed. Hundred (100) or more people reported affected. Declaration of a state of emergency. Call for international assistance. Merged with The World Bank’s data on emergency aid disbursement.
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MERGED DATA
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CORRELATION Accounting for our new variable, the amount of crises The World Bank has responded to per country, over the total amount of crises in a country per year over time.
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PRELIMINARY RESULTS A regime-type of democracy increases the likelihood of aid from The World Bank in emergency-crises situations. A regime-type of democracy increases the likelihood of aid from The World Bank in emergency-crises situations. Further controls to account for Further controls to account for
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QUESTIONS?
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