1.  Evaluating Brazil’s Bolsa Família Program: Do Local Governments Matter? Pui Shen Yoong International Politics & Economics Honors Thesis April 20, 2012

2. Presentation Outline  Context: Brazil & the Bolsa Família Program  Research Question  Methodology  Quantitative Findings  Qualitative Findings  Conclusion

3. Brazil – A Country of Contrasts Mean per capita income (PPP US$ of 2005) Source: World Bank.

4. The Bolsa Família Program Conditional cash transfer program Cash in exchange for schooling/nutrition ‘conditionalities’: Pregnant women: pre-natal care Children aged 0 – 6 : vaccination, monitoring Children aged 6 – 15: minimum attendance 85 % Teenagers aged 16 – 17: minimum attendance 75 % Families who earn <140 reais per capita (80 USD) a month Allowances from 32 to 306 reais (20 – 180 USD) a month

5. Decentralized Management

6. Research Question  “How does local government capacity affect the program’s ability to improve beneficiaries’ health & education across municipalities?”

7. Methodology: Regression Analysis INDEPENDENT VARIABLE Administrative Capacity % of beneficiaries monitored for compliance with health/education requirements DEPENDENT VARIABLE Effect on health/education -- % of beneficiaries complying with health/education requirements 853 municipalities in Minas Gerais state Municipal fixed-effects model (i=municipality, t=year)

8. Methodology: Case Studies Araçuaí Capelinha Human Development Index by Municipality, Minas Gerais, 2000 Contagem Belo Horizonte

9. Quantitative Results Monitoring rates have significant and positive effect on compliance rates, both for health & education. Population size, degree of urbanization, program coverage rates, log of tax revenue – no significant effect. Neither do supply-side factors (health teams, social assistance centers) But why/how do monitoring rates affect compliance rates?

10. Qualitative Results  Cross-sector collaboration – health, education, social assistance departments  Administrative Structure  Financial capacity does not explain differences in compliance rates

11. Conclusion Local government capacity matters!  Investment in building monitoring capacity (MDS & municipalities)  Incentives for horizontal collaboration among local-level agents

12.  Questions? Comments? THANK YOU! Pui Shen Yoong psyoong@gmail.com