1. 1 FINANCING EDUCATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA National strategies and aid architecture KEITH HINCHLIFFE

2. 2 OUTLINE Education financing – amounts, distributions and sources. Recent trends, (mainly) governments and donors Future financing scenarios responding to:  changes in social demand for education  global economic downturn and future economic growth  evolution of government development strategies  changes in donor priorities and behaviours Education structures and patterns of financing vary considerably across countries.

3. 3 RECENT TRENDS IN EDUCATION EXPENDITURE (i) NATIONAL PUBLIC EXPENDITURE Basic expenditure data limited for 1/3 SSA countries. But several positive messages. High rates of economic growth post 2000 Public EE as % GDP increased significantly since 2000. Highest developing regional share EE as % of TGE – again highest regional share Overall EE grew by 7.7% a year 1999–2007 Expenditure share for primary fell from 49% to 45%: secondary share (28%) much lower than other regions BUT - wide variations in all of these measures.

4. 4 (ii) DEVELOPMENT AID SSA largest regional recipient of education aid but share fallen Constant share of education in total aid 2007 direct aid to education: 30% primary, 11% secondary, 26% tertiary (32% level unspecified) Trends – reduction in primary and increase in tertiary Wide differences in allocations across countries – conflict 3 donors provide 40% of all aid for education, 8 donors provide 80%. Many small donors high priority education, and basic education.

5. 5 (iii) HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE Aggregate country/regional data very patchy HE in public education: recent trends to reduce costs in primary and increase in post secondary HE in private education: no regional estimates of enrolments in privately-funded schools

6. 6 FUTURE EDUCATION EXPENDITURE (i) Enrolment growth 1999-2007 enrolments increased 51% primary, 73% secondary, 94% tertiary 2007. NERGER Primary7399 Secondary 2734 Tertiary 6 Primary NER> 8514 countries 60-8514 countries < 60 6 countries No data 8 countries

7. 7 Future 2007, GIR 115% likely to fall increase in primary survival and P/S transition rates, plus expanded primary intake will result in lower secondary pressures. Lower and higher secondary differentiation Variations across country groups.

8. 8 (ii) Economic growth and global downturn Limited impact so far. GDP growth of 7% a year 2006 and 2007 – followed by 5.5%, 2.0%, 4.8% and projected 6.8% in 2011(IMF) Public expenditures reduced by less than economic growth decline Remittances may have fallen, but unemployment increase in DCs less than anticipated Fears of double dip with consequences for exporters (commodity and consumer)

9. 9 CHALLENGES AND RESPONSES Governments PRSP protection for basic Growth protection post basic? Budget strategy – overall or aggregation of parts? Future pressures on education expenditure  teacher salaries  school fees and expansion of subsidies

10. 10 Households Primary – private schools and perceptions of quality Secondary – quality and transition rates Tertiary – transition rates, cost sharing

11. 11 Donors – overall aid Limited impact of recession so far ‘Gleneagles’ not reached, but aid share trends positive Use of aid – security etc.

12. 12 Donors – aid for education Distribution across levels Modalities and sector/budget support Conflict-affected countries Multiple donor strategies BRICS EFA-FTI