1. Journalism 614: Public Opinion and Policy Making

2. Changes in Global Warming Opinion

3. Same-Sex Marriage Opinion by Party ID

4. Gun Ownership and Geography

5. Opinion and Policy  What influence do these indicators of public opinion have on public policy?  Are our elites responsive to public opinion?  Do special interests have a greater influence over policy making than public opinion?  Under what conditions do governments act in accordance with mass opinion?

6. Policy Responsiveness  “Open interplay of opinion and policy is the distinguishing mark of popular rule” - H. Lasswell –A normative view of democracy –Concerns the way things should be  Conversely, “Democratic government only amounts to a hoax, a ritual whose performance serves only to delude the people and thereby to convert them into willing subjects of the powers that be -- V.O. Key

7. Various Possibilities  Public opinion constrains public policy  Public opinion exerts strong influence to direct or redirect government policy  Public opinion ignored in policy making  Public opinion is molded by elites into alignment with preferred policies

8. Opinion as Policy Influence  Foreign policy –Iran-Contra Affair - Growing Awareness –Vietnam War - Public Call for Withdrawal –China in UN - Public Opposition Eroded  Domestic Policy –Roe v. Wade - Growing support for abortion –Civil Rights Act - Calls for desegregation –Capital Punishment - Legalized, again but…

9. Opinion Ignored, Sometimes  Reduce Foreign Aid  Cut Back on Space Program  Support School Prayer  Support More Stringent Gun Control –Often the influence of strong lobbying groups –Often in response to international threats

10. Responsiveness Heightened When…  Elected officials more responsive near elections - often through party influence  Elected officials who view themselves as “delegates” — not “politicos” — respond  Elected officials respond to interest groups that reflect the views of public groups –Aggregate and articulate: Democratic pluralism  Elected officials respond to dominant elites

11. Evidence of Responsiveness  Monroe - studied 222 cases of consistency or inconsistency between government policy and majority public opinion –64% of the cases were consistent –28% of the cases, public wanted change, government stayed with the status quo –8% of the cases, public wanted status quo, government adopted a change of policy

12. Examining Response to Change  Page and Shapiro - Do changes in opinion produce changes in policy?  Policy congruent with opinion 66% of time –The larger the shift in the opinion the more responsive government was to opinion

13. Localized Responsiveness  Vietnam and Troop Withdrawals  Defense Spending –Respond to aggregated national opinion  Roll Call Voting - Community Focused –Miller and Stokes find that elected officials are responsive to the opinions of constituents –Greater for highly salient issues - e.g., Race

14. Ideological Responsiveness  Respond to ideological climate — public mood — not specific policy preferences –The notion of “public sentiment” –Sense of support for an ideology –Used as basis for range of policies  Long-term responsiveness of ideological mood to public policy change –Stimson, MacKuen, & Erikson

15. Portrait of Responsiveness?  Do we have democratic decision-making through the influence of mass opinion?  If policies don’t reflect view of majority or growing minority, who do they support?  Is the government responsive or do they move opinion in advance of policy change?  How is opinion manufactured to support certain perspectives?