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2003 Challenges in the Central European banking environment Herman Agneessens, Managing Director.

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Presentation on theme: "2003 Challenges in the Central European banking environment Herman Agneessens, Managing Director."— Presentation transcript:

1 2003 Challenges in the Central European banking environment Herman Agneessens, Managing Director

2 Investor Day 2003 2 Agenda Overview of Central European presence Overview on the bank’s performance in ‘02 and 1Q '03 Comments on the ‘02 earnings in Poland Poland : the outlook Overall growth outlook for CE banking

3 Investor Day 2003 3 Central Europe, current presence Poland Kredyt Bank (77%) Warta (40%) Czech Republic CSOB (84%) CSOB Pojist’ovna (84%) Patria Finance (100%) Slovakia CSOB (84%) Ergo Poist’ovna (69%) Hungary K&H Bank (59%) K&H Life (80%) Argosz (99%) Slovenia NLB (34%) NLB Vita (67%) Indirect presence Lituania & Ukraine (via Kredyt Bank) Bosnia, Serbia & Macedonia (via NLB) Percentages concern direct + indirect presence

4 Investor Day 2003 4 Central Europe, market postion banking Poland (banking) Ranking:6th Market share:6% Clients:1.2 m * Branches:385 Czech Republic (banking) Ranking:1st Market share:18% Clients:3.1 m Branches:205 Slovakia (banking) Ranking:4th Market share:5% Clients:0.2 m Branches:51 Hungary (banking) Ranking:2nd Market share:12% Clients:0.8 m Branches163 Slovenia (banking) Ranking1st Market share:44% Clients:0.9 m Branches217 Market share is average of share in customer credits and in customer deposits * estimate (31-12-2002)

5 Investor Day 2003 5 Central Europe, market postion insurance Poland (non-life / life insur.) Ranking:2nd/10th Market share:13%/1% Czech Republic (non-life / life insur.) Ranking:5th/4th Market share:5%/10% Slovakia (non-life / life insur.) Ranking:7th/7th Market share:2%/4% Hungary (non-life / life insur.) Ranking:6th/14th Market share:4%/1% Slovenia Start-up phase of life assurance cy (31-12-2002)

6 Investor Day 2003 6 Central European banking, the genesis 1994Policy to pursue presence in CE countries (other than Baltic states) likely to join EU in 1 st wave 1996First minority stake purchase in Kredyt Bank, Poland 1997Reference shareholdership in K&H Bank, Hungary through privatisation 1999Majority shareholding in CSOB, Czech & Slovak Republics, through privatisation 1999KBC becomes majority shareholder in K&H Bank 2000Take-over of IPB assets & liabilities by CSOB 2001Merger K&H Bank & ABN AMRO Magyar 2001Majority shareholding in Kredyt Bank in November 200234% shareholding in Nova Ljubljanska Banka, Slovenia

7 Investor Day 2003 7 Central European banking, the investments Breakdown investment in banksKBC participation Investment (EUR m) P/BV Czech and Slovak Republics CSOB Patria Finance 84% 100% 1 369 53 2.3 4.1 HungaryK&H Bank59%2761.3 PolandKredyt Bank77%5241.4 SloveniaNLB34%4342.7 Total investmentEUR m Banks2 656 Insurance companies298 Total2 954

8 Investor Day 2003 8 Central European banking performance, stand-alone 2002 earnings In m EUR CSOB (IAS) Kredyt BankK&H (IAS) NLB (IAS) 200120022001200220012002 RoE17%16%-1%-17%7%13% C/I63% 78%70%91%80%61% RoI10%-9%10% (+7%) (+210%)

9 Investor Day 2003 9 Central European banking performance, contribution to 2002 group profit In m EUR CSOBKredyt BankK&H 200120022001200220012002 RoE18%19%-3%-19%-1%14% C/I68%69%85%75%90%83% (+15%) Before minority interests

10 Investor Day 2003 10 Central European banking performance, share in group banking business Credit portfolio13% Gross operating income24% Interest income27% Expenses27% Net profit *15% Allocated equity **25% * after minorities ** excl. investment in NLB (FY 2002)

11 Investor Day 2003 11 Central European banking performance, stand-alone 1Q03 earnings ČSOBKBK&HNLB 20022003200220032002200320022003 RoE22 %11 %2 %4 %13 %18 %14 %13 % C/I54 %71 %73 %81%84 %75 %61 %69 % RoI16 %8 %1 %3 %10 %16 %5 % In m EUR

12 Investor Day 2003 12 ČSOBKBK&HNLB 200220032002200320022003 RoE27 %12 %- 2 %1 %12 %21 %5 % C/I58 %75 %76 %84 %88 %78 %69 % Central European banking performance, contribution to 1Q03 group profit In m EUR Before minority interests

13 Investor Day 2003 13 Central European banking performance, the 1Q03 analysis K&H Bank, Hungary Outstanding overall performance Current trendlines appear stable ČSOB, Czech & Slovak Republics The Q-comparison predictably suffered from exceptional income items in 2002 Even so, the Q1 performance disappoints Measures on the cost side are in hand Measures on the income generation side particularly relate to retail banking and SME-banking

14 Investor Day 2003 14 Kredyt Bank, Poland New management appointed Market share loss reversed For 1 st time in 7 quarters, stabilisation in ACL's (°) and NPL's, but too soon for predictions Economic environment remains extremely challenging Cost-cutting clearly underway Bancassurance initiative clearly successful Asset management product launches being prepared Central European banking performance, the 1Q03 analysis (°) adversely classified loans

15 Investor Day 2003 15 Banking presence in Poland, past milestones 1989Kredyt Bank founded 1996KBC becomes 5% shareholder of Kredyt Bank 1997KBC raises shareholding to 9.9% 1997Kredyt Bank takes over PBI and Prosper Bank, gaining significant retail market share 1998 Strategic plan to increase branch network from  180 to  380 branches from 1999 to 2001 1999KBC shareholding increased to 23% 1999KBC shareholding reaches 49.9% 2001Kredyt Bank has 382 branches 2001In November, KBC becomes 56% majority shareholder 2002In September, introduction of entirely new IT system completed 2002KBC raises shareholding to 76.5%

16 Investor Day 2003 16 Banking presence in Poland, earnings 2002 vs bank peer group Largest loss of all Polish banks at 415 million PLN Second worst RoE performance (-21 %) Worst RoA performance (-1.8%) Largest loan provisions addition (105 million EUR) 4 th worst cost-income ratio (79 %) But 3 rd best in adversely classified loan levels

17 Investor Day 2003 17 NPL in total loan portfolio as of Dec 2002 16.8% 23.6% 19.0% 21.7% 29.2% 20.7% 26.2% 19.4% 14.0% 16.7% 26.8% 21.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% KB S.A. BIG-BG BOS BPH PBK BH BRE INGBSK Pekao S.A. PKO BP BZ WBK BG Jun 01 Dec 02 Jun 02 Dec 02 avg Banking presence in Poland, asset quality 2002 vs bank peer group

18 Investor Day 2003 18 NPL in total loan portfolio as at Mar. 2003 8.6% 19.5% 21.2% 15.5% 13.3% 16.6% 21.3% 30.6% 28.2% 21.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% KB S.A. BPH PBK BH INGBSK Pekao S.A. June 2001 December 2001 June 2002 December 2002 March 2003 blue figures : June 2001 yellow figures : March 2003 Banking presence in Poland, asset quality 1Q03 vs bank peer group

19 Investor Day 2003 19 Largest loss of all Polish banks at 415 million PLN Second worst RoE performance (-20.8%) Worst RoA performance (-1.8%) Largest loan provisions addition (€105 million) 4 th worst cost-income ratio (79.4%) But 3 rd best in adversely classified loans levels 5 th largest, and arguably 3 rd best, retail branch network coverage Loan provisioning now fully in line with KBC methodology New ICT system performing up to expectations  providing the tool required for structure and efficiency optimisation Successful launch of bancassurance activity Excellent position in automated channels Banking presence in Poland, earnings 2002 vs bank peer group

20 Investor Day 2003 20 Kredyt Bank vs K&H Bank, K&H Bank’s performance Acquisition price paid by KBC : 1.3 to book value Stand-alone results K&H : In m EUR 19981999200020012002Q1 2003 Net profit-15-3210164818 RoE-12%-33%9%7%13%18%

21 Investor Day 2003 21 Kredyt Bank vs K&H Bank, Kredyt Bank’s performance Acquisition price paid by KBC : 1.4 to book value Stand-alone results Kredyt Bank In m EUR 19981999200020012002Q1 2003 Net profit362839-3-824 RoE32%13%12%-1%-17%4%

22 Investor Day 2003 22 Kredyt Bank, the outlook AGENDA : Priorities of the new management Cost-efficiency enhancement measures Income generation measures Vulnerability issues Conclusion

23 Investor Day 2003 23 Kredyt Bank, new management’s priorities Priority for retail bancassurance development Introduction of asset management products Maintenance of corporate lending position Full integration in KBC’s risk control systems Reduce cost-income ratio Thus becoming a leading Polish bank

24 Investor Day 2003 24 Kredyt Bank, cost efficiency enhancement 2003 :head-count reduction target of 1.000 (ca 15%) by leveraging the potential of the new ICT system Network staff optimisation Administrative overlap elimination Head office streamlining Q1 2003 : already headcount reduction of 432

25 Investor Day 2003 25 Kredyt Bank, income enhancement measures Continue market share gains in retail bancassurance by leveraging penetration levels of a young network Develop a new model for SME-market approach Introduce market-tailored asset management products Fill remaining gaps in the product range for both banking and bancassurance

26 Investor Day 2003 26 Kredyt Bank, vulnerability issues Vulnerability of the loan portfolio to a further weakening of the Polish/European economies The lack of a perspective for a short term economic recovery in Poland Effective implementation of cost efficiency enhancement program

27 Investor Day 2003 27 Kredyt Bank, conclusion Kredyt Bank offers excellent franchise value A dynamic new management team A well positioned retail network A promising bancassurance start Acceptable market shares in both deposits (5.2%) and loans (7.2%) A new and meanwhile proven IT system In the short term, a difficult economic environment is likely to continue to prevail In the longer term, however, Poland offers excellent growth perspectives KBC is a committed long term shareholder, providing access to both capital and know-how

28 Investor Day 2003 28 Central European banking, the growth outlook Annual growth real GDP, in % (period averages) 1991-19951996-20002000-20102010-2020 Belgium 1.52.82.0 to 2.51.5 to 2.0 EU-15 1.52.62.0 to 2.51.5 to 2.0 Central Europe-0.43.33.5 to 4.03.0 to 3.5 US 2.44.13.0 to 3.52.5 to 3.0 Source : EC, OECD, UN

29 Investor Day 2003 29 Central European banking, level of banking penetration

30 Investor Day 2003 30 Central European banking, high potential for bancassurance Source: Swiss Re

31 Investor Day 2003 31 AustriaGermanyCzech Republic HungaryPolandSlovakiaSlovenia Account89976446345579 Bank card57n.a.4935213657 Savings books68n.a.3816135853 Time deposits29n.a.12861415 Mortgages56302020153 Loans18227714617 Securities15n.a.34 47 Source: HVB % of total population over 15 years who use this product Use of banking products not widely spread  room for further development Central European banking, the growth outlook

32 Investor Day 2003 32 Financial assets as % of GDP reach current average level in Southern Europe Average nominal GDP growth ± 7% X Size financial sector might rise by as much as factor 5 (in absolute terms) during catch-up process ! Rough measure : over next 10 years : Central European banking, the growth outlook


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