1. UK Centre for the Measurement of Government Activity Mariagrazia Luciano OECD conference 3-5 October 2006 Measurement of non-market output in Education

2. Summary Background notes: old and new methodology Measurement of Education Output Education Productivity articles New measures of Education Output: adjusting for quality and real earning growth Supporting evidence: triangulation Next steps

3. Background notes: old and new methodology Previous NA method: Education output = Education inputs In 1998 introduced direct volume measure: pupil numbers and Quality Adjustment (QA) of 0.25% based on GCSE exam results - England used as a proxy for UK Following Atkinson Review recommendations (chapter 9): –Attendance instead of number of students for schools (AR 9.1) –Health courses, ITT and nursery places included (ARs 9.4-9.7)

4. Measurement of Education Output Government Expenditure on:Volume Measure used: SchoolsPupil Attendance Quality Adjustment Nursery Schools and ClassesPupil Numbers (fte) Nursery free placesNumber of places filled Initial Teacher Training courses (ITT) Number of students Health Professional CoursesNumber of students fte: full-time equivalent pupil numbers

5. Education output 1995 - 2004 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 1995199619971998199920002001200220032004 Years output measure Average change 1% per year Currently in National Accounts

6. Education productivity articles 1 st Education Productivity article published by UKCeMGA in October 2005 –output and productivity trends 1995-2004 comparing previous and new methodology –Presenting the possible methods for quality adjustments and related debate –Triangulation section: providing wider sources of information on the quality of Government Education services

7. New Education output measures Adjusting for Quality of output Pupil attainment –GCSE threshold 5+ A* to C –GCSE Average Point Score Key Stage Progress –Progress between Key Stage Tests – at age 7,11,14,16 –Adjusted Key Stage – apply results to all years age 5-16 Adjusting for Real Earning Growth

8. New Education output measures with quality adjustment 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 1998199920002001200220032004 National Accounts BB05 GCSE threshold Adjusted KS progress

9. New Education output measures with earnings growth New earnings adjustment 1.5% per year BB05 output GCSE threshold Adjusted KS progress

10. Supporting evidence - Triangulation Ofsted results – improved teaching standards Class size – reduction – increased classroom support Public assessment – improved standards PSA targets – progress towards targets

11. Next steps Undertake a wider consultation program to gain expert views on how to develop an appropriate method for output Quality Adjustment and Real Earnings Growth Improving output and inputs estimates Improving triangulation methods

12. Contact ukcemga@ons.gsi.gov.uk Mariagrazia.luciano@ons.gsi.gov.uk