2. World Differences

3. Part 2 Trends and patterns in fertility

4. Birth Rate (live births per 1000) The birth rate of a country is dependent on… the fertility rate (the average number of babies a woman will have)the fertility rate (the average number of babies a woman will have) and the age structure of the country’s population.and the age structure of the country’s population. CBRCBR TFRTFR GFRGFR ASBRASBR

5. For a high birth rate you need a high % of women of child rearing age 15-50 years old. So a country with an ageing pop will have a low and declining birth rate. (Japan 1995=10 2007=8)So a country with an ageing pop will have a low and declining birth rate. (Japan 1995=10 2007=8) A country with a young mean average age of pop will have a high birth rate. (Uganda 2007=48)A country with a young mean average age of pop will have a high birth rate. (Uganda 2007=48) Age Structure

7. http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html

8. Spatial Pattern of Fertility - Total Births More children are born each year in Africa than are born in the Americas, all of Europe and Japan put together. (Worldmapper.com)

9. Global distribution of elderly people (+65) A comparison of the 2 maps clearly shows that fat countries in terms of number of elderly are thin in terms of total births, and vis-versa

10. And a more traditional map – from Index Mundi

11. Fertility Rate Trends General trend of decreasing fertility rates - 1970s global average was 6 now 2.59 (2007)General trend of decreasing fertility rates - 1970s global average was 6 now 2.59 (2007) Replacement level 2.1 (why 2.1 and not 2?)Replacement level 2.1 (why 2.1 and not 2?) MEDCs, NICs and other semi-periphery economies have seen significant fertility rate declines.MEDCs, NICs and other semi-periphery economies have seen significant fertility rate declines. Countries in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and East Asia are below replacement level.Countries in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and East Asia are below replacement level. Even the least developed nations (such as sub-Saharan Africa) are experiencing falling fertility rates.Even the least developed nations (such as sub-Saharan Africa) are experiencing falling fertility rates.

12. Bucking the Trends - Anomalies and Unique Cases Japan (1.23) compared with other MEDCs (UK – 1.66, Sweden 1.66). “In societies which make breeding and working compatible, women tend to do both.”Japan (1.23) compared with other MEDCs (UK – 1.66, Sweden 1.66). “In societies which make breeding and working compatible, women tend to do both.” Economist (July 28 2007) The USA (2.09) compared with other MEDCs.The USA (2.09) compared with other MEDCs. China (1.79) compared with other India (2.79)China (1.79) compared with other India (2.79)

13. Population Momentum By 2050 UN population projections predict significant population growth.By 2050 UN population projections predict significant population growth. So why; with falling fertility rates and slowing natural change are we still predicted to have significant population growth in the future?

14. Population Momentum Population momentum is the tendency for a population to grow despite falls in BR and fertility.Population momentum is the tendency for a population to grow despite falls in BR and fertility. It occurs because of a relatively high concentration of people in the pre-childbearing and child bearing years; as these people grow older and move through the reproductive ages births will exceed deaths and populations will continue to growIt occurs because of a relatively high concentration of people in the pre-childbearing and child bearing years; as these people grow older and move through the reproductive ages births will exceed deaths and populations will continue to grow

15. Implications of Momentum Thus in highly fertile countries with youthful populations, growth will continue despite significant declines in fertilityThus in highly fertile countries with youthful populations, growth will continue despite significant declines in fertility Moreover, in ageing countries such as those in Europe, populations will continue to decline even if fertility rates are increased to replacement level.Moreover, in ageing countries such as those in Europe, populations will continue to decline even if fertility rates are increased to replacement level. Thus replacement level must be seen as a long- term concept rather than an indication of current rates of change.Thus replacement level must be seen as a long- term concept rather than an indication of current rates of change. These implications are significant in terms of population policy and managementThese implications are significant in terms of population policy and management

16. Population pyramids help us to evaluate the momentum potential of a country

17. Group Work Take an example of a rapidly growing population (eg Kenya) and a slowly growing population (eg Germany) Discuss the future consequences of their current population structure What will the government need to do? And individuals? What will be the situation in 2050?

18. A rapidly growing population LEDCs e.g. Kenya Can be identified by population pyramids and the D.T.M Overpopulation in rural areas – soil exhaustion Overcrowding – lead to poverty? Puts pressure on resources e.g. food, hospitals, water, power and other services Governmental money needs to be directed to those who need it (depending on the ages concerned) Future – more children? Knock-on effect Particularly evident in ELDCs – increase in shanty towns, conditions worsen

19. Solutions: More family planning More contraception Free abortions Delay marriage Improve education Concentrate resources on lowering the infant mortality rate

20. A slowly-growing population - MEDCs eg Germany - Fewer children can lead to schools closing and more unemployment –More needs to be spent on pensions, hospital beds, nursing homes etc. –‘Grey Power’ – all pensioners have vote – cannot be ignored –Fewer working adults, taxes will have to up or retirement age. –http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- 19784509 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- 19784509http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- 19784509

21. Solutions: Raise child benefit Free nursery Better maternity/ paternity rights Tax credits for low income Raise retirement age Encourage retired people to take on part-time jobs Encourage immigration

22. Population Change Summary Population change varies over time and through space.Population change varies over time and through space. High birth rates and falling death rates in LEDCs led to the global population explosion from about 1950.High birth rates and falling death rates in LEDCs led to the global population explosion from about 1950. Current rates of population growth are slowing down as fertility rates decline globally.Current rates of population growth are slowing down as fertility rates decline globally. However, population momentum will mean we see continued growth with the world population peaking at around 9 billion in 2050.However, population momentum will mean we see continued growth with the world population peaking at around 9 billion in 2050. Although significant global declines in mortality have been achieved in recent years life expectancy in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa is still very low as a result of the prevalence of infectious diseases (especially HIV/Aids).Although significant global declines in mortality have been achieved in recent years life expectancy in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa is still very low as a result of the prevalence of infectious diseases (especially HIV/Aids).

23. Key Terms Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – the number of live births in a year per 1000 peopleCrude Birth Rate (CBR) – the number of live births in a year per 1000 people Total Fertility Rate – the average number of children born to a women during her lifetimeTotal Fertility Rate – the average number of children born to a women during her lifetime General Fertility Rate (GFR) – the number of live births per 1000 females of child bearing age (15-44 years)General Fertility Rate (GFR) – the number of live births per 1000 females of child bearing age (15-44 years) Crude Death Rate (CDR) – the number of deaths per 1000 of the population in a yearCrude Death Rate (CDR) – the number of deaths per 1000 of the population in a year Life Expectancy – the average number of years a person can expect to liveLife Expectancy – the average number of years a person can expect to live Age-specific death rate such as infant and child mortalityAge-specific death rate such as infant and child mortality Doubling times; with a 2% growth rate the population doubling time would be 35 years, with 3% it would take 24 years and with 4% only 17 years for a population to double (to get the doubling time divide 70 by the %)Doubling times; with a 2% growth rate the population doubling time would be 35 years, with 3% it would take 24 years and with 4% only 17 years for a population to double (to get the doubling time divide 70 by the %)

24. So why have we seen a general decrease in fertility? Its all about people, places and decisions

25. "Geography is the study of The Earth as the home of people" Yi-Fu Tuan 1991 Its about people and the decisions people make in their lives. How place affects people’s decisions and how people’s decisions affect the place we live.

26. Fertility Rates and Human Behaviour Demographics is a study of the sum of many different people’s individual decisions.Demographics is a study of the sum of many different people’s individual decisions. The use of birth control is the key factor affecting fertility rates.The use of birth control is the key factor affecting fertility rates.

27. Fertility Rates and Birth Control Thus the fertility rate will depend on what social, political, economic, cultural and environmental factors combine to affect individual people’s decisions on birth control.Thus the fertility rate will depend on what social, political, economic, cultural and environmental factors combine to affect individual people’s decisions on birth control. To understand the link between development and fertility you have to observe how these factors which affect birth control change as a country develops.To understand the link between development and fertility you have to observe how these factors which affect birth control change as a country develops.

28. Decisions on birth control – development continuum Least developed countries Most developed countries List all the factors you can think of that will influence a persons decision to use birth control – try and place them on the continuum where you think they best fit in terms of a countries development. Use different colour highlighters to indicate if a factor is social, economic, environmental or political (SEEP)

29. Once again Gapminder steps in to illustrate the links between development and fertility Gapminder World Compare fertility rate and income; try fertility and other development indicators as well.