1. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini

2. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 RT5: Evaluation Albert Klein Tank & Antonio Navarra / Elisa Manzini Objective:to perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble simulation/prediction system against observations/analyses

3. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Achievements All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met

4. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Achievements All RT5 deliverables and milestones are met

5. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Evaluation of global models used in multidecadal simulations (RT2a stream 1) –D5.5:systematic biases in the mean climate and seasonal cycle (INGV, UREADMM, IPSL) –D5.14:impact of model resolution on simulation of ENSO (INGV) –D5.16:representation of cloud regimes in the tropics (IPSL) –D5.17:representation of monsoon and its teleconnection (IPSL) Achievements global and multidecadal

6. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Evaluation of forecast quality with global models in s2d simulations (RT2a stream 1) –D5.3:probabilistic forecasts of rare extreme events, incl. R-software (ECMWF, UREADMM) –D5.4:verification methods for forecasts of extreme events (UREADMM), plus websystem (KNMI) –D5.7:skill in the seasonal prediction of NAO and PNA (ECMWF) –D5.6:decadal forecast quality in the Indo-Pacific sector, discussion document (INGV, IPSL) Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d

7. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Evaluation of regional models used in multidecadal simulations, with focus on extremes (RT2b and RT3) –D5.8:daily station dataset for gridding (KNMI, MeteoSwiss) –D5.9:analysis of possible gridding methods (UOXFDC, CRU) –D5.2:decadal scale variations of precipitation extremes in ERA40 and Alpine observations (ETH) Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal

8. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Evaluation of impact models (RT6) –D5.10:workshop “Lessons learned from seasonal forecasting: health protection” (UNILIV, IRI) Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal impact models

9. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Linkages between the 4 clusters (and gaps) were discussed at Monday’s RT5 meeting Coherent evaluation strategy will be outlined in the next PAR and soon available from the updated RT5-website Next few example diagrams: Achievements global and multidecadal global and s2d regional and multidecadal impact models

10. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 global and multidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL JFM mean precip, 1958-2000

11. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 global and multidecadal D5.5: INGV, UREADMM, IPSL JFM sd of precip, 1958-2000

12. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 global and s2d D5.7: ECMWF 1-month lead NAO (DJF) hindcasts

13. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 regional and multidecadal D5.2: ETH Bias correction of ERA40 precip in 3 Alpine regions, 1979-93

14. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 impact models UNILIV Rules based Malaria model run with ERA40 (1958-2001)

15. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Plans, 1 of 2 8 deliverables and 4 milestones for RT5 in next 18 months Will see the start of more regional work when gridded observational dataset for Europe and RCM simulations become available Stress that good access to all data is essential !

16. ENSEMBLES General Assembly Lund, Sweden, 22 November 2006 Plans, 2 of 2 Extremes discussion: mismatch between high-impact extremes and statistically defined extremes Participate in upcoming meetings: –joint RT4/5/8 extremes workshop Riederalp, 29 Jan- 2 Feb, 2007 –3rd WGNE workshop on systematic errors in climate and NWP models, San Francisco, Feb 12-16, 2007 –joint RT4/5/CFMIP meeting, Paris, Apr 11-13, 2007 –EGU, Vienna, 15-20 Apr –…more on ENSEMBLES website…