1. Ea Energy Analyses BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group Dinner Table Discussion Baltic Sea Scenarios Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Helge Ørsted Pedersen Ea Energy Analyses www.eaea.dk

2. Ea Energy Analyses

4. The Future Danish Energy System  The Danish Board of Technology: 2004-2007  Future Panel – Danish Parliamentarians  Steering group with stakeholders  Public hearing, workshops and seminars  Scenario report + project newsletters to the Parliament  Modeling tool and data – STREAM  Used for education at Danish Technical University and Roskilde University CO 2 -emissions: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 1990 Oil consumption: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 2004

5. Ea Energy Analyses Denmark’s gross energy consumption Oil Coal RE Natural gas PJ GDP100 150 Energy Policy Securty of supply + Economy + Environment + Climate InfrastructureLiberalisationOrganisation MarketEnergy and heat planningMarket+ Framework Self-Suffieciency 0 %145 % + Preparedness District Heating1,5 mio. households0,7 mio. households 2007 Technology Export 5 b. kr.46 b. kr.

6. Ea Energy Analyses The Danish Board of Technology The Future Energy System Dinner debate in the Danish Parliament in May 2006

7. Ea Energy Analyses Combination Scenario Gross Gross energy consumption

8. Ea Energy Analyses 5 stakeholder workshops on key measures

9. Ea Energy Analyses Prepared by The Danish Board of Technology RISØ DTU Ea Energy Analyses Jan 2007 – Oct 2008 Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030

10. Ea Energy Analyses Process of dialogue Politicians Utilities Energy planners Project developers Researchers Others Questions Answers

11. Nov/Dec.Sep. - Oct.Feb. - MarchApril - May Website 20082007 MEPs Dialogue on - targets - measures - scenarios MEPs Stakeholders Experts -Energy -Transport -Savings Scenario report Road-map Model tool+data Scenario report Road-map Model tool+data Workshop Phase II STREAM updated, data, and scenarios Phase I Dissemination Public model tool - STREAM Draft report Public model tool - STREAM Draft report Dinner debate Final workshop

12. Ea Energy Analyses Two scenarios Small-tech Energy savings District heating - CHP Biomass Solar, wind, wave Improved fuel economy Modal-change Electric vehicles ICT Big-tech Carbon Capture & Storage Nuclear power Biomass Improved fuel economy Modal-change Electric vehicles Biofuels Energy Transport …or perhaps a combination

13. Ea Energy Analyses Results

14. Ea Energy Analyses Results

15. Ea Energy Analyses Resources and security of supply

16. Ea Energy Analyses Economic results Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the scenario year (2030) i.e. –the average annual capital costs –costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs Not considered –Health benefits –Cost of modal change and improved efficiency in transport –Transaction costs related to implementation Technology and fuel costs may divert from projections Therefore: interpret results with caution

17. Ea Energy Analyses Economics Fuel price projectionsOil (USD/bbl) Gas ($/MBtu) Coal ($/ton) Low (IEA projection 2007*) 627.361 High (Prices in September 2008) 11516179 Small-tech CO2: 45 €/t

18. Ea Energy Analyses

19. Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Prepared by Ea Energy Analyses Towards  50% oil reduction  50% CO2 emissions reduction …in 2030 Energy Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region