1. J. McCalley Power System Operation, and Handling Wind Power Variability and Uncertainty in the Grid

2. Outline 1.Basic problems, potential solutions 2.Wind power equation 3.Variability 4.System Control 5.Comments on potential solutions 2

3. Basic problems with wind & power balance 1.Wind is a variable resource when it is controlled to maximize its power production a.Definition: NETLOAD.MW=LOAD.MW+LOSSES.MW-WIND.MW b.Fact: Wind increases NETLOAD.MW variability in grid c.Fact: Grid requires GEN.MW=NETLOAD.MW always d.Fact: “Expensive” (based on marginal cost) gens move (ramp) quickly, “cheap” gens don’t, some gens do not ramp at all. e.Problem: Increasing wind increases need for more and “faster” resources to meet variability, increasing cost of wind. 2.Wind is an uncertain resource a.Fact: Market makes day-ahead decisions for “unit commitment” (UC) based on NETLOAD.MW forecast. b.Fact: Large forecast error requires available units compensate. c.Problem: Too many (under-forecast) or too few (over-forecast) units may be available, increasing the cost of wind. 3

4. Solutions to variability & uncertainty 1.We have always dealt with variability and uncertainty in the load, so no changes are needed. 2.Increase MW control capability during periods of expected high variability via control of the wind power. 3.Increase MW control capability during periods of expected high variability via more conventional generation. 4.Increase MW control capability during periods of expected high variability using demand control. 5.Increase MW control capability during periods of expected high variability using storage. 4 4

5. Power production Wind power equation v1v1 vtvt v2v2 v xx Swept area A t of turbine blades: The disks have larger cross sectional area from left to right because v 1 > v t > v 2 and the mass flow rate must be the same everywhere within the streamtube (conservation of mass): ρ=air density (kg/m 3 ) Therefore, A 1 < A t < A 2 Mass flow rate is the mass of substance which passes through a given surface per unit time. 5

6. Power production Wind power equation 3. Mass flow rate at swept area: 1. Wind velocity: 2. Air mass flowing: 4a. Kinetic energy change: 5a. Power extracted: 6a. Substitute (3) into (5a): 4b. Force on turbine blades: 5b. Power extracted: 6b. Substitute (3) into (5b): 7. Equate 8. Substitute (7) into (6b): 9. Factor out v 1 3 : 6

7. Power production Wind power equation 10. Define wind stream speed ratio, a: 11. Substitute a into power expression of (9): 12. Differentiate and find a which maximizes function: This ratio is fixed for a given turbine & control condition. 13. Find the maximum power by substituting a=1/3 into (11): 7

8. Power production Wind power equation 14. Define C p, the power (or performance) coefficient, which gives the ratio of the power extracted by the converter, P, to the power of the air stream, P in. power extracted by the converter power of the air stream 15. The maximum value of C p occurs when its numerator is maximum, i.e., when a=1/3: The Betz Limit! 8

9. Power production Cp vs. λ and θ Tip-speed ratio: u: tangential velocity of blade tip ω: rotational velocity of blade R: rotor radius v 1 : wind speed Pitch: θ GE SLE 1.5 MW 9

10. Power production Wind Power Equation So power extracted depends on 1.Design factors: Swept area, A t 2.Environmental factors: Air density, ρ (~1.225kg/m 3 at sea level) Wind speed v 3 3. Control factors affecting performance coefficient C P : Tip speed ratio through the rotor speed ω Pitch θ 10

11. Power production Cp vs. λ and θ Tip-speed ratio: u: tangential velocity of blade tip ω: rotational velocity of blade R: rotor radius v 1 : wind speed GE SLE 1.5 MW Important concept #1: The control strategy of all US turbines today is to operate turbine at point of maximum energy extraction, as indicated by the locus of points on the black solid line in the figure. Important concept #2: This strategy maximizes the energy produced by a given wind turbine. Any other strategy “spills” wind !!! Important concept #3: Cut-in speed>0 because blades need minimum torque to rotate. Generator should not exceed rated power Cut-out speed protects turbine in high winds 11

12. Power production Usable speed range Cut-in speed (6.7 mph)Cut-out speed (55 mph) 12

13. Wind Power Temporal & Spatial Variability 13 JULY2006 JANUARY2006 Notice the temporal variability: lots of cycling between blue and red; January has a lot more high-wind power (red) than July; Notice the spatial variability “waves” of wind power move through the entire Eastern Interconnection; red occurs more in the Midwest than in the East Blue~VERY LOW POWER; Red~VERY HIGH POWER 13

14. Time frame 1: Transient control 14

15. Time frame 1: Transient control 15 Source: FERC Office of Electric Reliability available at: www.ferc.gov/EventCalendar/Files/20100923101022-Complete%20list%20of%20all%20slides.pdf www.ferc.gov/EventCalendar/Files/20100923101022-Complete%20list%20of%20all%20slides.pdf 1-20 seconds

16. Time frames 2 & 3: Regulation and Load following = + Load FollowingRegulation Source: Steve Enyeart, “Large Wind Integration Challenges for Operations / System Reliability,” presentation by Bonneville Power Administration, Feb 12, 2008, available at http://cialab.ee.washington.edu/nwess/2008/presentations/stephen.ppthttp://cialab.ee.washington.edu/nwess/2008/presentations/stephen.ppt. 16 4 seconds to 3 minutes Every 5 minutes

17. Analogy for supply-demand- frequency relationship 17 Inflow  Supply Outflow  Demand Water level  Frequency

18. How Does Power System Handle Variability 18 Turbine-Gen 1 Turbine-Gen 2 Turbine-Gen … Turbine-Gen N ∆f ∆P tie ACE= ∆P tie - 10B∆f Primary control controls output in response to transient frequency deviations Secondary control provides regulation B is BA’s frequency bias in MW/0.1Hz. B is negative.

19. How Does Power System Handle Variability 19 ACE= ΔP tie – BΔf = ΔP tie +| B|Δf ΔP tie =P tie,act -P tie,sch Δf=f act -60 If ΔP tie =0, Δf =0, then ACE=0, and generation does not change; If ΔP tie >0 which means the actual export exceeds the scheduled export, then this component would make ACE more positive therefore tending to reduce generation; If Δf>0 which means the actual frequency exceeds the scheduled frequency of 60 Hz, then this component would make ACE more positive therefore tending to reduce generation. BA REST OF THE INTERCONNECTION P3 P1 P2 P tie =P1+P2+P3

20. Power Balance Control Levels 20 Control level NameTime frame Control objectivesFunction 1Primary control, governor 1-20 seconds Power balance and transient frequency Transient control 2Secondary control, AGC 4 secs-3 mins Power balance and steady-state frequency Regulation 3Real-time market Every 5 mins Power balance and economic- dispatch Load following and reserve provision 4Day-ahead market Every day, 24 hrs at a time Power balance and economic- unit commitment Unit commitment and reserve provision

21. Why Does Variability Matter?  NERC penalties for poor-performance  Consequences of increased frequency variblty:  Some loads may lose performance (induction motors)  Relays can operate to trip loads (UFLS), and gen (V/Hz)  Lifetime reduction of turbine blades  Frequency dip may increase for given loss of generation  Areas without wind may regulate for windy areas  Consequences of increased ACE variability (more frequent MW corrections):  Increased inadvertent flows  Increase control action of generators  Regulation moves gen “down the stack” cycling! 21

22. Power Balance Control Levels 22 Load regulation component Load following component Load Δt=2 min, 28 min rolling average, so T=7. Regulation component varies about the mean and tends to go up as much as it goes down and is therefore normal with 0 mean.

23. Power Balance Control Levels 23 Consider two random variables, X and Y. If Z=X+Y, then

24. Characterizing Netload Variability ∆T HISTOGRAM Measure each ∆T variation for 1 yr (∆T=1min, 5min, 1 hr) Identify “variability bins” in MW Count # of intervals in each variability bin Plot # against variability bin Compute standard deviation σ. Regulation Load following Ref: Growing Wind; Final Report of the NYISO 2010 Wind Generation Study, Sep 2010. www.nyiso.com/public/webdocs/newsroom/press_releases/2010/GROWING_WIND_- _Final_Report_of_the_NYISO_2010_Wind_Generation_Study.pd f 24 Loads: 2011: 12600 MW 2013: 12900 MW 2018: 13700 MW

25. Solutions to variability & uncertainty 1.Do nothing: fossil-plants provide reg & LF (and die  ). 2.Increase control of the wind generation a.Provide wind with primary control Reg down (4%/sec), but spills wind following the control Reg up, but spills wind continuously b.Limit wind generation ramp rates Limit of increasing ramp is easy to do Limit of decreasing ramp is harder, but good forecasting can warn of impending decrease and plant can begin decreasing in advance 3.Increase non-wind MW ramping capability during periods of expected high variability using one or more of the below: a.Conventional generation b.Load control c.Storage d.Expand control areas 25 %/min$/mbtu$/kw LCOE,$/mwhr Coal1-52.27245064 Nuclear1-50.70382073 NGCC5-105.0598480 CT205.0568595 Diesel4013.81 25

26. How to decide? First, frequency control for over-frequency conditions, which requires generation reduction, can be effectively handled by pitching the blades and thus reducing the power output of the machine. Although this action “spills” wind, it is effective in providing the necessary frequency control. Second, frequency control for under-frequency conditions requires some “headroom” so that the wind turbine can increase its power output. This means that it must be operating below its maximum power production capability on a continuous basis. This also implies a “spilling” of wind. Question: Should we “spill” wind in order to provide frequency control, in contrast to using all wind energy and relying on some other means to provide the frequency control? Answer: Need to compare system economics between increased production costs from spilled wind, and increased investment, maint, & production costs from using storage & conventional gen. 26