1. Increasing for a reason… The demographic transition model

2. To understand the demographic transition model, you need to know the following terms… Birth rate – The annual number of births per 1,000 people. Birth rate – The annual number of births per 1,000 people. Death rate – The annual number of deaths per 1,000 people. Death rate – The annual number of deaths per 1,000 people. Natural increase – The annual rate of population change as calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate. Natural increase – The annual rate of population change as calculated by subtracting the death rate from the birth rate.

3. For example… The birth rate of the United States is 14.14 births per 1,000 population, while the death rate is 8.25 deaths per 1,000 population. Therefore the natural increase would be: The birth rate of the United States is 14.14 births per 1,000 population, while the death rate is 8.25 deaths per 1,000 population. Therefore the natural increase would be: 14.14 – 8.25 = 5.89 per 1,000 or.00589 (.59%) Find the natural increase of your country using the above model.

4. The demographic transition model Geography of natural increase doesn ’ t “ just happen. ” Instead there are a series of generalizations we can make based on the experiences of many countries. By considering the relationships between birth rates and death rates over time, we can come up with four stages: Geography of natural increase doesn ’ t “ just happen. ” Instead there are a series of generalizations we can make based on the experiences of many countries. By considering the relationships between birth rates and death rates over time, we can come up with four stages:

5. Stage 1: High Stationary Stage 1: High Stationary Stage 2: Early Expanding Stage 2: Early Expanding Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage 4: Low Stationary Stage 4: Low Stationary

6. This model is important because… The population curve throughout history makes sense! The population curve throughout history makes sense! Different countries of the world are at different stages. Different countries of the world are at different stages. Several countries have completed the transition and demographers use their experiences to predict global population growth. Several countries have completed the transition and demographers use their experiences to predict global population growth.

7. Stage 1: High Stationary Birth rates and death rates are high and about equal. Therefore, growth is stationary. Birth rates and death rates are high and about equal. Therefore, growth is stationary. Death rates were high – poor sanitation, tainted water, lack of education, absence of medication and vaccines. Death rates were high – poor sanitation, tainted water, lack of education, absence of medication and vaccines. Infant mortality was high. Even in “ advanced societies ” about 25% of children died before their 1 st birthday. Infant mortality was high. Even in “ advanced societies ” about 25% of children died before their 1 st birthday. Average life expectancy was low – While the life expectancy in France is now 78 years, in the late 1600 ’ s, life expectancy was 35 years. Average life expectancy was low – While the life expectancy in France is now 78 years, in the late 1600 ’ s, life expectancy was 35 years. How would this affect how people lived their lives? How would this affect how people lived their lives?

8. Societies often responded to high death rates with high birth rates… Most people farmed…more kids meant more workers. Most people farmed…more kids meant more workers. People didn ’ t have pensions…more kids meant someone to look after you when you were older. People didn ’ t have pensions…more kids meant someone to look after you when you were older. Shorter life expectancy meant people married young – often in their mid- teens (which means that many of you would be married now!). Shorter life expectancy meant people married young – often in their mid- teens (which means that many of you would be married now!).

9. Stage 1: High Stationary Virtually no country currently is in this stage. However, it is an important base for us to understand the other phases which are very real to us today. Virtually no country currently is in this stage. However, it is an important base for us to understand the other phases which are very real to us today.

10. Stage 2: Early Expanding Birth rates exceed death rates by a widening margin – population increases dramatically. Birth rates exceed death rates by a widening margin – population increases dramatically. Can be confusing, as both birth and death rates are often decreasing. However, the gap between the two is widening as the death rate is declining more. Can be confusing, as both birth and death rates are often decreasing. However, the gap between the two is widening as the death rate is declining more.

11. Why? Widespread improvements in water and sanitation. Widespread improvements in water and sanitation. Medicines and vaccines are becoming widely available. Medicines and vaccines are becoming widely available. Infant mortality is dropping and Life Expectancy is rising (more Infant mortality is dropping and Life Expectancy is rising (more people reaching the child bearing years). Death rates are dropping Death rates are dropping faster than birth rates… population grows!

12. Stage 2: Early Expanding Most countries with a “ high ” rate of natural increase are in the early expanding stage. Most countries with a “ high ” rate of natural increase are in the early expanding stage.

13. Stage 3: Late Expanding Birth rates and death rates continue to go down – gap between the two is narrowing. Birth rates and death rates continue to go down – gap between the two is narrowing. Improvements continue to be made in public health (lower infant mortality rates and longer life spans – death rate continues to decline). Improvements continue to be made in public health (lower infant mortality rates and longer life spans – death rate continues to decline). As the economy develops, machines take over work that used to be done manually. Therefore, the need to have kids strictly to be workers goes down. As the economy develops, machines take over work that used to be done manually. Therefore, the need to have kids strictly to be workers goes down. More people have jobs with pensions… More people have jobs with pensions… the need to have kids to support you later goes down. Increasing numbers of women enter Increasing numbers of women enter work force – delays marriage and children.

14. Stage 3: Late Expanding Most countries with “ medium ” natural increase belong to this group. As the modern economy encompasses more and more families, the rate of population increase levels off. Most countries with “ medium ” natural increase belong to this group. As the modern economy encompasses more and more families, the rate of population increase levels off.

15. Stage 4: Low Stationary In the final stage, both birth and death rates are low. Thus, population growth is again stationary. In the final stage, both birth and death rates are low. Thus, population growth is again stationary. Increases and advances in health care results in lower death rate and high life expectancy. Increases and advances in health care results in lower death rate and high life expectancy. The economy is overwhelmingly industrial or post-industrial – there is a diminished need for manual labor. The economy is overwhelmingly industrial or post-industrial – there is a diminished need for manual labor. Widespread pension and retirement systems. Widespread pension and retirement systems. More woman go into workforce delaying or opting out of motherhood. This lowers the birthrate. More woman go into workforce delaying or opting out of motherhood. This lowers the birthrate. Families factor in the cost of raising and educating children – opt for smaller families. Families factor in the cost of raising and educating children – opt for smaller families.

16. Stage 4:Low Stationary Most countries with a “ low ” or “ negative ” natural increase levels fall into this category. Most countries with a “ low ” or “ negative ” natural increase levels fall into this category.

17. Making Connections… The wealthiest countries tend to be found in North America, Western Europe, and a few additional areas (i.e. Japan and Australia). At the other extreme are countries in Asia and Africa. This suggests an inverse relationship between natural increase and wealth. The wealthiest countries tend to be found in North America, Western Europe, and a few additional areas (i.e. Japan and Australia). At the other extreme are countries in Asia and Africa. This suggests an inverse relationship between natural increase and wealth.

18. Which category does your country fall into?