1. Decision Support at the Microscale

2. “Tactical” ‘tak-ti-kel, adj. 2 a: of or relating to tactics: as (1): of or relating to small-scale actions serving a larger purpose (2): made or carried out with only a limited or immediate end in view b:adroit in planning or maneuvering to accomplish a purpose. (Merriam-Webster)

3. How good is “good enough?”  Research conducted in microscale meteorology suggest variations of 20 F and tens of knots are not uncommon at spatial scales less than 1 mile.

4. Crosstimbers Micronet See: ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/103127.pdf by M.J. Haugland

5. Crosstimbers Micronet

6. Temperature (comparison between Micronet and nearby Mesonet sites) MATT HAUGLAND Pasture-Level Influences Note the cold anomaly mid- way between two Mesonet sites spaced 20 miles apart!

7. Why does it matter? Mount Scott (~2400 ft) Medicine Creek (~1500 ft)

8. Dispersion in the Wichitas

10. Propane plume Mount Scott ~1000 ft X 300 ft Medicine Creek Valley ~4000ft X 2500 ft

11. Trains, Trucks, and Mountains Trucks (~1230 ft) Trains (~750 ft)

12. What about NDFD Grids?

13. What if…  We could accurately forecast with 2500 times more detail?  Account for local mesoscale circulations?  What if we could account for land use and urbanization?  Update the forecast each hour?  Produce tailored decision support forecast content?

14. Tactical Forecast Grids

18.  100 m grid spacing  50 X 50 km moveable tactical domain  Updated hourly  Hourly forecast to 8 hours  Time of request to forecast product ~15 minutes

19. NDFD vs. TFG – A Comparison

20. How do we do that?

21. LAPS 5000m 2X hr-1 Mesonet Topo 1000m RUCMetars WFO WRF 4000m 1X hr-1 NAM Lateral Boundary Topo 1000m Vegetative Fraction (Satellite) Land Use GFE 100m HAZMAT Fire Support Tactical Forecast Topo 30m Forecaster Expertise Expertise QC, SA Tactical model configuration, domain grid selection QC, Smart Tools, Decision Support Expert Tactical Grid Forecast Process RUC13 Alternative

22. LAPS Domain

23. WRF Domain

24. LAPS, WRF, TFG Domains

25. LAPS  Runs on AWIPS twice per hour. Top the hour run available by H+20 This run feeds OUN WRF  5 x 5 km grid spacing  Includes radars  Includes Oklahoma Mesonet

26. OUN WRF  Runs on 16 node, 16 GB cluster (also supports HWT-EWP forecasts)  Runs once per hour Between H+25 and H+55 Hourly out to 8 hours  Output viewable in AWIPS  Upgrade to WRF EMS 3 made March 4, 2009

27. Tactical Forecast Grids  Smart-Init runs hourly or on-demand Basis OUN WRF or RUC13 100 m x 100 m resolution 100 m topo resolution  Domain set be forecasters using AWIPS 50 km x 50 km domain  Uses conventional GFE and slightly modified smart tools/formatters “Tactical GFE” “Tactical Forecasts”

28. Domain Mover

29. They look pretty, but are they any good?

30. The Fort Cobb Project  ARS Ft. Cobb Micronet 5 min T,Td 15 stations  Compared T, Td between NDFD and TFG at stations  Jan 9 – Feb 28, 2009 Around clock

31. Results  12240 temperature forecast pairs  TFG improved over NDFD 75% of the time  MAE was about 40% improved in TFG (about 1.3 deg F)  MAE improvement was consistent night and day MAE slightly larger at night

32. MAE at 01Z

33. MAE at 21Z

34. Future Work  Explore techniques to improve WRF initialization  Refine Smart-Init  Expand domains  Run farther in time  Develop GIS compatible formats

35. What are the implications for NWS services?

36. Implications – Services  More accurate short-term forecasts Fire weather, dispersion, HAZMAT, special event support, simulating local effects for forecast decisions (e.g. freeze warnings) The tactical forecast

37. Tactical Forecast  Generated by Tactical GFE formatter  Includes ALOHA parameters  Disseminated via email to event-specific customer list. TTAA00 KOUN 061612 TACOUN TACTICAL DECISION SUPPORT FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2009.INCIDENT...DEWEY CO WILDFIRE.FORECAST... TIME (CST) 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 WIND SPEED (KT) 4 G5 5 G9 7 G11 10 G16 11 G18 12 G19 WIND DIR (DEG) 129 166 195 199 207 209 SKY (%) 60 60 60 60 60 60 TEMPERATURE (F) 59 62 67 70 74 76 STABILITY CLASS C C C C D D REL. HUMIDITY (%) 18 20 21 22 21 21 DEWPOINT (F) 16 21 26 29 32 33 1KFT WIND (MPH) S 4 S 6 S 11 S 14 SW 15 SW 18 2KFT WIND (MPH) SW 11 SW 14 SW 20 SW 24 SW 20 SW 20 3KFT WIND (MPH) W 17 SW 17 SW 21 SW 25 SW 27 SW 26 MIXING HGT (FT) 1023 1496 2176 2564 3178 3754 TRANS WIND (KT) SW 5 S 7 S 10 S 15 SW 15 SW 18 N/A N/A HEAT INDEX WIND CHILL 59 62 67 70 74 76.LAT/LON...36.03/-98.96 $$

38. Tactical Forecast  Georeferenced formats GeoTiff Shapefiles ○ Highlight areas using thresholds important to decision-making Regions and times below freezing Regions and times of poor dispersion Regions and times of dangerous wildfire spread index And so on

39. Implications - Operations  Redefines the role of the forecaster and the forecast process Too detailed and rapid-paced for hand edits Forecaster becomes an advisor to decision makers Forecaster needs to be expert in mesoscale and microscale meteorology  Easily transportable throughout NWS field Can be customized to meet local needs Expertise to implement already exists in many offices

40. QUESTIONS?