1. IWMI and FAO ADB funded Issue Paper on Trends and transitions in Asian irrigation: What are the prospects for the future?

2. The Issue Paper: Structure Why irrigation? Introduction Trends and their drivers Irrigation scenarios for Asia Rise of atomistic irrigation in Asia Reform or morph: Unlocking value Future challenges and options

3. Rising irrigation, falling food prices & poverty But is irrigation expansion like1960s & 1970s possible, or even desirable? Population will increase, Climate change is imminent Do we have enough water?

4. Major pathways to meet future food demand in Asia Invest in rainfed agriculture Invest in irrigation Improve productivity of existing systems (How?) Expand irrigation (Where and of what type?) Promote trade from water rich highly productive areas Reform irrigation and unlock value

5. Rise of the atomistic irrigation in South Asia.. Net irrigated area under surface irrigation (000’ha) Net irrigated area served by groundwater (000’ ha) 1993-42000-1 % change 1993-42000-1 % change Andhra Pradesh25232269 -10.1 16781829 +9 Bihar & Jharkhand1762986.8 -44.0 20292111.5 +40.7 MP & Chattisgarh21401279.1 -40.2 15352300.9 +49.9 Punjab1283.41168.7 -8.9 26222438 -7.1 Rajasthan18151439 -20.7 27023450 +27.7 UP & Uttaranchal38372106.6 -45.1 56308493 + 50.8 Pakistan Punjab42403740 -11.8 876010340 +18 Sind23001960 -14.8 140200 +42.9 Bangladesh537480 -10.7 21243462 +63 All areas 2270917215 -24.2 2843735762 +25.8 This calls for entirely different paradigm of water management Whither PIM/IMT? Contours of irrigation is fast changing

6. Socio-technical Preconditions that support Surface Irrigation 1. Nature of the state 1.1 Local authority structures : 1.2 State interest in irrigation: 1.3 Ease of Forced Labor: 2. Nature of Agrarian society 2.1 Irrigated cropping pattern 2.2 Ease of exit from farming 2.3 Agrarian institutions 3. Demographics 3.1 Population pressure on farm land 4.State of irrigation technology 4.1 Availability and Affordability of water lifting and transport Future of surface irrigation? FAVORABLE CONTINGENCIES STRONG REVENUE/LEVY HIGH HOMOGENEOUS LOW FEUDAL/STATIST LOW BRIGHT South Asia Weak Welfare Impossible Diverse; High Egalitarian Very high; intensification and diversification. High BLEAK PIM/IMT will be difficult to sustain because Surface irrigation as a technology of water mobilization and Application is being crowded out by Atomistic irrigation. Strategy? Reinvent surface systems to support Atomistic irrigation

7. Socio-technical Preconditions that support Surface Irrigation 1. Nature of the state 1.1 Local authority structures : 1.2 State interest in irrigation: 1.3 Ease of Forced Labor: 2. Nature of Agrarian society 2.1 Irrigated cropping pattern 2.2 Ease of exit from farming 2.3 Agrarian institutions 3. Demographics 3.1 Population pressure on farm land 4.State of irrigation technology 4.1 Availability and Affordability of water lifting and transport Future of surface irrigation? CONTINGENCIES STRONG REVENUE/LEVY HIGH MONO CROPPING LOW FEUDAL/STATIST LOW CENTRAL ASIA STRONG Welfare +Taxes+ Exports? ??? COTTON/WHEAT; HIGH taxes; LOW? STATIST? lOW; LOW? GOOD Best bet for farmer-participatory Irrigation management. Larger farms, better levy crop prices and ‘right’ capitalization will Promote PIM.

8. Some of the arguments in this section are developed in this book..

9. Adapting yesterday’s systems to tomorrow’s needs: What can be done? Stage of agricultural developmentDesired irrigation & drainage strategy Focus outside agriculture Developed economies (e.g. Malaysia) Seek private investments for system upgradation Price water at realistic levels Improve water productivity Go for technological fixes Export oriented agriculture Intermediate/transition economies Invest in smaller schemes dedicated to high value crops Invest in water savings Ensure financial viability, even if not full cost recovery Dependent on agriculture Developing economies Concentrate on cereal production & livelihood goals Built new infrastructure if feasible or modernize existing ones Provide government and external financing of irrigation schemes

10. New threat? Or opportunity? Land acquisitions in other countries

11. Thank you For copies of the draft Issue Paper Contact Aditi Mukherji a.mukherji@cgiar.org a.mukherji@cgiar.org