1. Strategic Plan for HEPEX John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza AMS Annual Meeting Atlanta February 2, 2006

2. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) HEPEX aims to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence to make decisions for emergency management, water resources management and the environment

3. HEPEX Basic Building Blocks All 3 blocks are emerging Major work needed Must be done in an integrated way Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System User Applications Weather/Climate Ensemble Prediction System

4. Weather and Climate Forecasts Products, Services, Applications Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Observations Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction

5. Elements of a Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Atmospheric Ensemble Pre-Processor Hydrologic Ensemble Processor Land Data Assimilator Hydrologic Models Product Generator Products and Services Single-value and ensemble forecasts Reliable hydrologic inputs Reliable hydrologic products Ensemble initial conditions Ensemble forecasts Weather and Climate Forecasts Obs

6. Initial Workshop ECMWF - March 8-10, 2004 80 Participants 16 Countries Users [NY Power, BC Hydro, Quebec Hydro, EDF (France), Mekorot (Israel), WMIG (Canada), CddHoward (Canada), SMHI (Sweden), BGF (Germany), …] Meteorologists Hydrologists

9. Three Basic Elements of HEPEX Testbed Projects Supporting Data Sets Components of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

10. Future Activities HESS: HEPEX Special Issue HEPEX Strategic Implementation Plan (Eric Wood) BAMS Article (Tom Hammil) Testbed Workshops / Deliverables Data Set Access / Management (JCS) Hydrovision “track” (Chuck Howard) Workshop #3 – Ispra, Italy – Summer 2007

11. Thank You HEPEX Workshop Boulder – July 19-22, 2005

12. HEPEX Testbed Projects Canada – Great Lakes Europe –EU-JRC Ispra, Pan-European Flood, Po River Brazil U.S. –SE U.S. –Western U.S. Bangladesh PreProcessing / Statistical Downscaling Hydrologic Uncertainty / Data Assimilation Return

13. Supporting Data Sets (Under Construction) GFS Fixed Ensemble (1979 – present) –Temperature and Precipitation –Selected Regions Precipitation and Temperature Analyses –Selected Regions –Multi-scale Hydrological Basins –Forcing –Basin characteristics –Streamflow –Snow, soil moisture, satellite, etc TIGGE Ensembles CPC Products (for US) Other? (e.g. ECMWF, CMS, etc.) Return

14. Algorithm Services Data Services Control Services Display Services Security Services Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Federal agencies State, regional, and local cooperators Universities Private sector International organizations River Stage & Flow Surface Water Storage Water Supply Availability Flood Potential Water Quality Soil Moisture Runoff Snow Water Equivalent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Near- Surface Deep Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells) Vector Information (River Segments) Return

15. Rio Grande - Brazil Apply – CPTEC climate ensemble forecasts –RAMS regional climate model Users –ANEEL –ONS Milestone – March 2006 AGU Chapman Conference @ Porto Alegre, 2006? Return

16. Southeast US Application of meteorological forcing Include hydrologic uncertainties in hydrologic ensembles Application of climate information as input to predict extreme events Validation for extreme hydrological events Return

17. Western US and British Columbia Prediction for 2wks to 1 year Importance of Hydrological Model Calibration Data assimilation of snow Climate forecast application strategy Strategies for unbiasing hydrologic ensemble forecasts Return

18. Statistical Downscaling Initial focus on application of fixed version GFS Ensemble forecasts Links to other testbeds Strategies to produce ensemble forcing for ESP? Verification? Return