1. Pyro-convective smoke plume observed at ~10 km over British Columbia, June 2004 Vertical transport of surface fire emissions observed from space Siegfried Gonzi, Paul Palmer

2. Fires are an integral part of many natural ecosystems Plant responses post-fire include: Increased productivity Increased flowering Fire stimulated seed release and dispersal Improved germination US Fire Administration

3. Estimates of Global emissions from Biomass burning Biomass burning (Tg Element/yr) All Sources (Tg Element/yr) Biomass burning (%) CO 2 3500870040 O3*O3*420110038 CO350110032 NMHC2410024 NO x 8.54021 CH 4 3838010 EC192286

4. Quantifying the perturbation of fires on contemporary climate

5. Given the importance of fires in climate we want to answer 4 simple first-order questions about fire: 1.Where? 2.When? 3.How big? 4.How high?

6. We have been able to infer biomass burning characteristics for more than a decade http://dup.esrin.esa.it/ionia For the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR), 1995-present: Fire “hot spots” are determined using the 3.7  m channel. Fitted radiant temperatures greater than a threshold are labelled as fire.

7. Given the importance of fires in climate we want to answer 4 simple first-order questions about fire: 1.Where? 2.When? 3.How big? 4.How high?

8. Polar-orbiting satellites have sufficient coverage to infer information about variability on timescales from diurnal to year-to-year 5-years of Terra MODIS data (11/00 – 10/05)

9. Firecounts have disadvantages There are a number of technical problems with the data but more importantly, these data do not tell you 1)about the intensity of the fire 2)about the emissions from the fire

10. Given the importance of fires in climate we want to answer 4 simple first-order questions about fire: 1.Where? 2.When? 3.How big? 4.How high?

11. Bottom-up emission estimates M = A x B x a x b Grams of dry matter burned per year Total land area burned annually The average organic matter per unit area Fraction of above ground biomass relative average biomass B Burning efficiency of the above ground biomass Emission factors for flaming and smouldering fires

12. Space-borne observations of trace gases released by fires

13. Forward model H Inverse model Observations y Emissions x BB BF Top-down methodology PosteriorPriorGain matrixObservations Forward model

14. Top-down emission estimates based on inverse model calculations or process-based models GFEDv2 CO Emissions for JJASO 2006 [g CO/m 2 ]

15. Given the importance of fires in climate we want to answer 4 simple first-order questions about fire: 1.Where? 2.When? 3.How big? 4.How high?

16. MOPITT CO column data, c/o Edwards et al, 2006 Estimating injection heights of biomass burning plumes Atmospheric transport of fire emission depends on the height at which emissions are injected into the atmosphere Transport models typically assume fire emissions only in the first few kms but observations show that emissions can reach mid-high troposphere (5-10km)

17. Injection height Smoke entrained in mean flow Injection height is a complex function of fuel loading, overlying meteorology, etc

18. Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer- MISR 9 view angles at Earth surface: nadir to 70.5º forward and backward 4 bands at each angle: 446, 558, 672, 866 nm Continuous pole-to-pole coverage on orbit dayside 400-km swath 9 day coverage at equator 2 day coverage at poles Overpass around local noon time in high and mid- latitudes 275 m - 1.1 km sampling In orbit aboard Terra since December 1999 Stereographic projection provides information about fire smoke aerosol height layer

19. 5-30% smoke emissions are injected above the North American boundary layer (2002-2007) Kahn et al, [2008] Distribution of MISR heights-PBL for smoke plumes 2004 Alaska-Yukon Kahn et al, GRL, 2008

20. We use CO as a tracer for incomplete combustion We use cloud-free data from two instruments aboard the NASA Aura spacecraft (left): Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) Over burning scenes, together they are sensitive to changes in CO from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere

21. We develop the traditional surface emission inverse problem Both sides describe the sensitivity of the measured quantity y to changes in surface emissions e We estimate emitted CO mass in five regions from 0 – 15 km. During June-October 2006 we use 1785 TES profiles (672 colocated with MLS) Omitting gory details, only 2-3% of retrievals failed.

22. Define an injection height as the maximum height at which: 1)Posterior uncertainty is smaller than prior by 50% 2)Posterior mass is higher than the prior mass 33% pass this criterion; remaining 67% assume boundary layer injection

23. We estimate an injection height of greater than 10 km (recall we estimate mass over large vertical regions) Posterior CO mass increased by 50% due to biomass burning. (Limited) evaluation of our product: Indonesia, October 2006 2 = cloud 3 = aerosol Level of neutral buoyancy = 138 hPa Nearby radiosonde

24. Disproportionate impact of large fires: C ctrl -C ptb Longitude [deg] Boreal (42-67 o N)Tropics (0-30 o S) Pressure [hPa]

25. Concluding remarks In terms of climate, there is a lot we don’t know about fires. The height at which emissions are injected influence transport of surface air pollutants (BORTAS) Injections above the boundary layer is relatively rare but results in disproportionate perturbations. Key challenge: to combine Bayesian inference and CFD approaches to develop robust predictive models.