1. Public Policy Week 2: Policy Process – Analysis

2. Policy Analysis Description of the content of the policy
Analysis of the impact of the social, economic and political forces on the context of the policy
Analysis of the effects of the different institutional arrangements and political processes on the policy
Analysis of impact of the policy on society

3. Why Undertake Analysis?
Scientific understanding: improve knowledge of society
Professional advice: apply social science knowledge to solution of practical problems
Policy Recommendations: moral obligation on social scientists to advance specific polices?

4. What can be learned from policy analysis?
Description of the policy
Causes of the policy
Consequences of the policy
Teaches us what government is doing nor not doing n all areas – ask yourself what is our government’s policy on the environment, defence, economy, social policy, poverty, education? Need to ask descriptive questions – what is government doing about poverty, about alcohol abuse? Too much to learn – take a look at the undergraduate texts for a start on each of the policies that the current government is working on.
Show chart
Consequences – sometime referred to as policy evaluation.
Where would we source such information?

5. Causes and Consequences
Institutions,
Processes,
Behaviours A B E F
A – what are the effects of social and economic conditions on political and governmental institutions, processes and behaviours?
B – what are the effects of political and governmental institutions, processes and behaviours on public policies?
For example which party has better tax and spending levels?
C – what are the effects of social and economic conditions on public policies? For example, what are the effects of a changing attitude in society in relation to race and subsequent policies? What are the effects of an older population on government pension plans?
D – what are the effects of the policies on social and economic conditions (feedback)? In other words, what difference does the policy make to peoples’ lives? Does harsher prison sentences reduce crime in society? Was the welfare state a disincentive to work in the UK?
E – what are the effects of institutions and government on social and economic conditions (feedback) ?
F – what are the effects of public polices on government and political institutions, processes, and behaviours (feedback) ? What effect has the top up fee policy had on Tony Blair's position as leader of the Commons and PM in terms of popularity? C
Social and
Economic
Conditions
Public Policies D
(Adapted from Dye, 2002: 5)

6. Use of Analysis Analysis and advocacy are different Analysis –
Explanation rather than prescription
Scientific search for cause and consequence
Accumulating reliable research findings of general interest.
Issues are not decided upon by analysts but by political actors. The problems is:
Social science research doesn’t fare well in the political arena.
Research results can be interpreted, misinterpreted, ignored or used as a weapon in political combat.
Results of analysis can also produce embarrassing results for governments.

7. Policy Analysis - a remedy for society’s ills?
Limits on governments powers
Disagreements over the problems
Analysis itself is a subjective process
Limitations on the design of research
Complexity of Human Behaviours
No!!!
Limitations: Government can only do so much – some of society’s problems are very intractable. Look at education in Northern Ireland – how do you think an enforced policy of integration would fare for our children’s education?
Disagreements: Policy analysis can’t offer the solution if no-one agrees upon what the problem actually is. In education is low grades the problems and raising grades the solution? No, if the problem is low self esteem of students because of a lack of understanding of ethnic groups etc/bullying/poor facilities/lack of government funding/lack of quality teachers because of poor pay/lack of discipline in the home which permeates through to attitudes in school/dependency on the state therefore no need for education/ - perceptions which then leads to poor performance – clearly raising grades is not go to be do-able or the primary goal of many teachers!
Analysis: A large degree of subjectivity on the topic and the interpretation of results. Even the study and research into a particular subject is subjective and not neutral – since its effected by what one’s own value base is and what one is interested in - in other words what we THINK is important in society and worthy of attention.
Research – people may modify their behaviour because they know that they are being observed in an experimental capacity. For example, we may all appear more moderate on questionnaires about our attitudes to community relations in Northern Ireland than we actually are.
There are too many variables at play in society for a social scientist to ever been able to accurately predict the possible impact of a proposed policy.

8. Policy Analysis as a Skill
Difficult skill to acquire
An applied sub field of economics, politics, law, public administration, sociology etc.
No one model of choice for analysts to test/use that will give the best results.

9. Models of Analysis Institutional model Process Model Rational Model
Incremental Model
Group/Pluralist Model
Elite Model
Public Choice Model
Game Theory Model
Some policies may appear to be explained by using just ONE model.
The reality is that most policies are made using a combination of all of the above models or at least some combinations of them.
Make sure you use the models to describe and explain specific policies.

10. Institutional Model Policy as an institutional output
Relationship between public policy and government institutions
Government lends legitimacy to policies
Government policies involve universality
Government polices can be enforced by coercion
Legitimacy comes from the legal obligations

11. Process Model Problem Identification Agenda Setting Policy Formulation
Public Legitimation
Policy Implementation
Policy Evaluation
* In other words, a series of political activities…
Identification of policy problems through demands for government action
Agenda Setting – focusing attention of the mass media and public officials on specific public problems to decide what will be decided
Policy Formulation – Development of Policy proposals by interest groups, government officials, think tanks, etc
Policy Legitimation – Selection and enactment of policies through political actions – passing the law.
Policy Implementation – through organised bureaucracies, public expenditures, activities of executive agencies.
Evaluation – of the policy by government agencies, outside consultants, the press, the public.
What this model helps us understand is the PROCESS of how decisions are made but not the SUBSTANCE of the actual policies themselves. Helps us to understand the various activities involved in policy making.
It may be the case that it is the WAY that policies are made that effects the CONTENT of the actual policy.

12. Rational Model
Know all societies value preferences and their relative weights
Know all the policy alternatives available to them
Know the consequences of each policy alternative
Select the most efficient policy alternative
What are the barriers to this model?
Class questions – what are the obstacles to rational policy-making?
The rational actor model is attractive because it reflects how most people believe decisions should be made. But, when examined more closely, however, rational calculation may not appear to be a particularly convincing model of decision-making.
q       In the first place, the model is more easily applied to individuals, who may have an ordered set of preferences, than it is to groups, within which there are likely to be a number of conflicting objectives. Organisations may therefore only be said to make rational decisions if they are highly centralised and possess a strict command structure.
q       A second problem is that sometimes decision are made on the basis of inaccurate/inadequate information, and the benefits of various actions may be comparable.
q       A final problem is that the rational actor model ignores the role of perception, that is, the degree to which actions are shaped by belief and assumptions about reality, rather than by reality itself. Little or no importance is attached to the values or the ideological leanings of the decision-makers.
q       Such difficulties were perhaps what encouraged Herbert Simon to develop the notion of ‘bounded rationality’.
q       Simon has modified his views over the years and concedes that there are real problems with rationality. He notes that there are ‘arrangements’ which can be put into place which might promote a more rational decision-making process – see Parsons p

13. Incremental Model Proceeds through Incremental Change
Involves mutual adjustment and negotiation
Excludes by accident rather than by systematic or deliberate exclusion
Policy is not made once and for all
Superior to a ‘futile attempt at superhuman comprehensiveness’
Test of a good decision is agreement and process rather than goal attainment or meeting objectives
Involves some degree of trial and error (*Adapted from Parsons P )
Overview of the Approach:
q       Portrayed as the principle alternative to the rational decision making approach.
q       The theory is that decisions are not made in the light of clear-cut objectives, but through small adjustments dictated by changing circumstances.
q       Lindblom terms this model ‘the science of muddling through’.
q       The theory suggest that in practice decisions tend to be made on the basis of inadequate information and low levels of understanding, and this discourages decision-makers from pursuing bold and innovative courses of action.
q       Policy-making is seen as a continuous exploratory process – lacking over-rising goals and clear-cut ends.
q       Incrementalism may suggest a strategy of avoidance or evasion, policy makers being inclined to move away from problems, rather than trying to solve them.
Lindblom’s Theory:
q       Based on the premise of providing a more accurate account of how decisions are made in the real world.
q       Argues that this approach has the merit of allowing flexibility and expression of divergent views.
q       Argues that ‘muddling through’ implies responsiveness and flexibility, consultation and compromise.
Criticisms of the Incrematalism Model:
q       Criticised as profoundly conservative (by Dror), in that it justifies a bias against innovation and in favour of inertia. (e.g. Policy makers who embrace incrementalism are more likely to be concerned with day-to-day problems that with indulging in long-term visionary thinking).
q       Sheds little light on those decisions which are radical in nature.
q       Fails to take account of power and bias (Etzioni 1967)

14. Group/Pluralist Model
Public policy is the outcome of group forces acting against one another.
Policymakers are viewed as constantly responding to group pressures – bargaining, negotiating, compromising among the competing demands of influential groups.
No one group will dominate for every group there will be an equal and opposite.
Policies are the product of bargaining and compromise, will tend to be moderate , fair to all and conducive to social stability.
·  Pluralist Theory – assumes that power is dispersed within society to the various interest groups which constitute that society, that political decisions (ie policy decisions) are the outcome of competition between many different groups representing many different interests and that government acts as a more or less neutral referee.

15. Elite Model
Policies flow downwards from the elite to the masses – they do not arise from mass demands
As a model, elitism is purported to be based on ‘how the real world works’ – those at the top with power and those at the bottom without power.
Power within the British political system, and more importantly key decisions are still made by the executive.
Note the Westminster model of government – parliamentary sovereignty, accountability through fair and free elections, majority party control over the executive, strong Cabinet government, central government dominance, a doctrine of ministerial responsibility and non-political officials – closed and elitist.
Despite this it was deemed acceptable because – the public service ethos was a moral framework base don assumptions that officials were working for the public good, and not their own interests, so the secrecy issue wasn’t really a big deal. The officials could be trusted to make the best possible decision.
There were, however, factors that undermined the acceptability of the model:
Ministerial accountability rarely worked the way that it was supposed to – look at the lack of resignations.
Lines of accountability were blurred through privatisation, Next Steps Agencies etc.
Public service ethos was challenged – cash for questions, passport affair etc.

16. Game Theory
Rational decisions in which 2 or more people have choices to make and the outcome depends on the choices made by others
The ‘best’ policy outcome depends upon what other will do
The Prisoner’s Dilemma

17. Public Choice Model
Collective decision-making by self interested individuals
policy demands are self interested and that policy-makers are self interested.
Looks at how bureaucratic power serves itself rather than the public interest.
Look at interest groups pressure groups – selfish interests or wider interests
Public choice theory challenges the notion that individuals acts differently in politics than they do in the marketplace. In economic,s people are supposed to pursue their private interests, in the public arena, it was assumed that individuals pursued their own notion of public interest. Public choice theory argues that such assumptions are msiguided.

18. Sources
Policy Hub is a web-site developed by the Cabinet Office Strategy Unit which aims to improve the way public policy is shaped and delivered:
tailored access to initiatives, projects and tools that support better policy making and delivery
extensive guidance on the use of research and evidence in the evaluation of policy
links to a wide range of research resources and tools from the UK and around the world

19. Sources Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit
"...providing the Prime Minister and Government departments with a capacity to analyse major policy issues and design strategic solutions...“