1. ECON 4292 Migration, Immigrant Adaptation, and Development Professor Michael J. Greenwood

2. We begin with the thought that migration is inherently a regional phenomenon. Thus, we will not be surprised to see numerous references to various “regions.” These regions may be as small as counties and they may be as large as nations or countries. Whatever the case, our orientation will be strongly spatial. Unlike Alfred Marshall’s great Principles of Economics book that placed great emphasis on time and mostly ignored space, we will emphasize space while not completely ignoring time.

3. Scholars, policy makers, and planners from a number of social science disciplines are concerned with various issues relating to demography. As the study of human populations, demography has three major areas of concern: Fertility Mortality Migration

4. Note that these are the three sources of population change for a given city, county, metropolitan area, region, or nation. ΔPOP ≡ (B - D) + NM NM ≡ ΔPOP - (B - D)

5. The geographic movement of a population, or migration, is also a concern to social scientists from the wide spectrum of disciplines, including: Geographers Sociologists Anthropologists Psychologists Planners Epidemiologists Economists Regional Scientists

6. Residential mobility and migration are pervasive facts of life in most developed countries. Consider the following facts: 1. As of 1970, the average American made almost 13 residential moves over the life course. 2. For Britain, 8 such moves. 3. For Japan, 7 such moves.

7. 4. Consider the fraction of the U.S. population that changed its residence, county, and/or state between March and March of the years indicated below (i.e., migrated): Residence County State 1969-70 18.5% 6.7% 3.6% 1989-90 17.4% 6.7% 3.3% 1999-00 15.5% 6.4% 3.1% 2006-07 12.8% 4.2% 1.7% 2007-08 11.6% 3.7% 1.6% 2008-09 12.1% 3.7% 1.0%

8. 5. In FY 1991, the U.S. Accepted 1,827,167 persons as permanent resident aliens (immigrants), which was the highest annual total in U.S. history. In FY 2001, the U.S. accepted 1,058,902 legal immigrants, and in the FY 2008 we accepted 1,107,126.

9. 6. Between 1981 and 1990, U.S. Authorities apprehended 11.9 million deportable aliens and persons who were required to depart. Between 1991 and 2000, the figure was 14.7 million, and between 2001 and 2008 the respective figure was 9.0 million.

10. 7. Between 1981 and 1990, 2,375,727 persons were naturalized to U.S. citizenship. This was the highest total for any decade during the 20 th century until the last decade of the century, during which 5,597,105 were naturalized. Between 2001 and 2008, 5,192,376 were naturalized. The annual total grew from 166,317 in 1981 to 1,046,539 in 2008.

11. Defining “Migration” The term “migration” refers to “those changes of residence that involve a complete change and readjustment of the community affiliations of the individual.” (Bogue, 1959, p. 489) Moreover, “the migrant tends simultaneously to change employers, friends, neighbors, parish members, and many other social and economic ties.” (Bogue, 1959, p. 489)

12. Definitions of migration: United Nations (1970) A migration is defined as a move from one migration defining area to another (or a move of some specified minimum distance) that was made during a given migration interval and that involved a change of residence. A migrant is a person who has changed his or her usual place of residence from one migration-defining area to another (or who moved some specified minimum distance) at least once during the migration interval.

13. Population Association of America (1988): Most statistical offices in the United States “define” migration as a relatively permanent change of residence that crosses jurisdictional boundaries (counties in particular), measured in terms of usual residence at a prior point in time, typically one to five years earlier. Local moves within jurisdictions are referred to as residential mobility. (Population Association of America, 1988, p.1.

14. Possible definitions of migration

16. 1. Individual measures a. individual k located in area j lived in some other area at some fixed past date: migrant / stayer (1,0). b. individual k located in area j lived in area i at soma fixed past date; note that the individual not only migrated, but also we know where he/she originated.

17. i. gross directional migration (or place-to-place migration): GM ij ii. gross in-migration: GM j = Σ i M ij iii. gross out-migration: GM i = Σ j M ij iv. migration matrix 2. Flow Measures a. Gross migration (∑ k m k )

23. 2. Flow Measures (cont.) v. Fixed-period migration measures One year Five years Two to three years, three to four years, etc. Duration more than a given number of years b. Net migration i. net directional migration: NM ij = GM ij - GM ji ii. net in-migration: NM j = Σ i GM ij - Σ i GM ji iii. net out-migration: negative of net in

24. ∆POP = B – D + IM – OM ∆POP = NATINC – NM NM = ∆POP – NATINC NM t-1 → t = POP t - Expected survivors from t-1 to t NM t-1 → t = POP t - (POP t-1 * ten-year survival rate)

26. Problems with indirect measures of migration: 1. Changing census boundaries 2. Changing method of allocating enumerated population to place of residence (e.g. Students live away from home, armed forces personnel) 3. Census dates other than January 1 require adjustments for births and deaths (e.g. 1/12 occur each month)

27. 4. Births by place of residence of mother; deaths by place of residence of deceased 5. Birth and death corrections for under-registration 6. Civilian versus total population

28. 1. life time migration, or migration by place of birth 2. migration by place (country) of last permanent residence 3. migration by country of citizenship 3. Stock Measures

29. At-Risk Population The at-risk population is the population that has the potential to migrate at the beginning of the migration interval and to be counted as a migrant at the end of the migration interval. Almost always, migration should be defined as a rate relative to the population at risk to migrate. The “at-risk” population is often taken as the relevant beginning-of-period population, but this is not as clean as the relevant end-of-period population less the relevant in- migrant population plus the relevant out-migration population.

30. Migration Counterpart OMR = (OM / POP) * (k) Death rate IMR = (IM / POP) * (k) Birth rate NMR = (NM / POP) * (k) Rate of natural population increase